08/24/2022 1:10 EDT San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers

[buddha]

10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Lol, I didn't say I was happy with him now.  I said I was happy with signing him then.

🙂

just messin' with ya.

[buddha]

war is a bullshit stat.

[chasfh]

I too would have preferred Trevor Story over Javy Baez—Story was my #1 choice—but I also thought Baez was a nice consolation prize and would give us two years of up-and-down-but-ultimately-above-average production and then leave. We still might get a better year it of him next year yet, but it does seem like he might have taken his inevitable age-related step down.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Javy's been worth 1.2 WAR while making 22 million meanwhile Correa has been worth 2.2 WAR but at 35 million. Not a major difference in dollar to WAR.

Isaac Paredes and his 2.1 WAR at minimum salary enters the chat.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

In fairness to Correa, he has a much better WRC+ than Baez and that puts him among the better shortstops.

But nonetheless, his production has been underwhelming for a guy who signed a $35 million dollar contract and who expects to opt out to get more.

In either event, there are multiple guys in free agency who are better options. Though I doubt the Tigers will be shopping for a shortstop this offseason regardless of who they hire.

Seager, 3.9 / $33M.

Semien, 3.5 / $25M.

Story, 2.2 / $20M.

Correa, 3.2 / $35M.

Iglesias, 1.6 / $5M.

Baez, 1.2 / $20M.

Should'of signed Iglesias.

[buddha]

semien hasnt been that good this year.  the only reason he's ahead of correa is because semien leads the league in at bats.  and he's also 31.

238/295/411 or 264/344/421?

still better than baez though...

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, buddha said:

war is a bullshit stat.

All stats are good.  People are bullshitters.  

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, buddha said:

semien hasnt been that good this year.  the only reason he's ahead of correa is because semien leads the league in at bats.  and he's also 31.

238/295/411 or 264/344/421?

still better than baez though...

Semien leads the league in at bats because he is durable which is an important skill.  I would definitely prefer Correa because of his age though.  

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Semien leads the league in at bats because he is durable which is an important skill.  I would definitely prefer Correa because of his age though.  

Within the context of this upcoming offseason (rather than looking at last offseason), would Correa be preferable to Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson?

That's the thing.... if the Tigers wanted to go big, Correa isn't the only ballgame in town. And certainly if I was forking out $35 mil/year on a SS and had the choice between Turner and Correa, I know which one I would be paying.

Edited August 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

All stats are good.  People are bullshitters.  

stats are fine if you understand what they measure and then you need to determine how valuable what theyre measuring really is.

war - like any stat - is flawed.  i think it places too much emphasis on quantity over quality and it tries to place a number on defense which i dont think you can accurately do. but that's just me.  its not an invaluable stat, you just have to know what its flaws are.

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, buddha said:

stats are fine if you understand what they measure and then you need to determine how valuable what theyre measuring really is.

war - like any stat - is flawed.  i think it places too much emphasis on quantity over quality and it tries to place a number on defense which i dont think you can accurately do. but that's just me.  its not an invaluable stat, you just have to know what its flaws are.

If your goal is to measure overall value to your team, then quantity is very important.  Every time a starter doesn't play, the team has to use a most likely inferior backup.  

I agree that measuring defense is a problem.  Blindly using WAR as an evaluation tool is not a good idea.  It is best to consider the elements of WAR separately.  

[Tiger337]

50 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Within the context of this upcoming offseason (rather than looking at last offseason), would Correa be preferable to Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson?

That's the thing.... if the Tigers wanted to go big, Correa isn't the only ballgame in town. And certainly if I was forking out $35 mil/year on a SS and had the choice between Turner and Correa, I know which one I would be paying.

Turner is more durable but Correa is younger and a better defender, so it's close.  I think Swanson would be nice to have, but is in a different class.  His two really good years have been fueled by BABIP.  

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

All stats are good.  People are bullshitters.  

Do you have numbers to support this?

[sabretooth]

17 hours ago, buddha said:

i'm old enough to remember when half this board was crowing about the deal we got for baez rather than spending money on correa.

I wasn't a big fan of the Baez, I felt better about Story, but I guess I felt like the deal on Baez was less risky than the $300m+ deal with Correa, but I never anticipated Baez turning into pixie dust in year 1.

Obviously if I/we felt that we could get Correa on the ultimate Twins deal I would have preferred him over everybody for the same term/$.

[sabretooth]

Yeah, WAR measures something different than say OPS+.  Both are valuable, WAR tells you more about what a player did, but OPS+ is better as a predictive stat.