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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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39 minutes ago, romad1 said:

This actually surprises me

Armenia was all in on their Russian bosses I thought. 

This apparently has the Kremlin in a boil of rage. 

No no...

Armenia is PISSED that Russia refused to help them when Azerbaijan made incursions into Armenia, particularly last year around Sept... It seems that Russia was.... ummm... preoccupied? Azerbaijan currently is occupying a part of Armenia itself.

The last CSTO (Russia's "NATO" pale shadow) military get together in January, 2023, which was supposed to be in Armenia: Armenia said "no way, not in our country."

They're fed up with Russia and have been for at least a couple years+ or so...

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3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No no...

Armenia is PISSED that Russia refused to help them when Azerbaijan made incursions into Armenia, particularly last year around Sept... It seems that Russia was.... ummm... preoccupied? Azerbaijan currently is occupying a part of Armenia itself.

The last CSTO (Russia's "NATO" pale shadow) military get together in January, 2023, which was supposed to be in Armenia: Armenia said "no way, not in our country."

They're fed up with Russia and have been for at least a couple years+ or so...

I frankly find the politics of Armenia/Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabach corridor to be tiresome except it was a precursor to the UAV warfare we are seeing play out in Ukraine. 

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1 minute ago, romad1 said:

They gave theirs up because Russia made promises to them to guarantee their borders.  So, they screwed up by trusting Russia. 

Yep.

But also... they thought the US would do more as we were a part of that agreement as well.

Just not as guaranteed as Ukraine thought we were giving.

I don't remember the exact semantics that held us out of protecting them from Russia...

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2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I frankly find the politics of Armenia/Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabach corridor to be tiresome except it was a precursor to the UAV warfare we are seeing play out in Ukraine. 

The UAV precursor...

But also, it now has both of those countries effectively removed from the former Soviet Union's "sphere of influence".

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24 minutes ago, romad1 said:

My guess is that the US is trying to buy its way in and the Armenians are letting them.   Who doesn't need more money? 

 

US would be wise to support the Armenian factions that want to put an end to the conflict. Step one is leverage them away from the Russians  who keep stirring the pot of the local conflicts to prevent unified opposition to them from coalescing. 

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1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yep.

But also... they thought the US would do more as we were a part of that agreement as well.

Just not as guaranteed as Ukraine thought we were giving.

I don't remember the exact semantics that held us out of protecting them from Russia...

It would boil down to:   The war on terror was wearing our military class down and we couldn't afford to pay attention to Putin's misbehavin'

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3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

The UAV precursor...

But also, it now has both of those countries effectively removed from the former Soviet Union's "sphere of influence".

I'm all for self-determination in the Wilsonian 14 points mode.  Its just you can't let the grievance of the Bekah Valley (for example) drag you in as a superpower to every little struggle.

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17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm not saying the US should jump into the middle of this...

My point was that Armenia and Azerbaijan both used to be a part of the Soviet Union...

Now, neither one of them wants anything to do with Russia...

Ok.  That is the smart play for both.  

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Just to note, Musk claims Starlink was never enabled in Crimea, not previously when he supposedly turned it off when he got word about an attack (which our own intelligence has privately complained they have been left in the dark too often by Ukraine) nor right now.  What's the value in pushing this narrative?

Additional note, the biographer has walked back this story as well.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/elon-musk-sabotaged-ukraine-attack-russia-1234820180/

 

Quote

In response, Isacson also offered a correction on how his book portrayed the incident. He wrote, “The Ukrainians THOUGHT coverage was enabled all the way to Crimea, but it was not. They asked Musk to enable it for their drone sub attack on the Russian fleet. Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a major war.”

He later posted, “Based on my conversations with Musk, I mistakenly thought the policy to not allow Starlink to be used for an attack on Crimea had been first decided on the night of the Ukrainian attempted sneak attack that night. He now says that the policy had been implemented earlier, but the Ukrainians did not know it, and that night he simply reaffirmed the policy.”

 

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32 minutes ago, pfife said:

Lol at the notion that starlink im crimea would have caused a major war..... that had already started in 2014.   Lol at isacson..... and also the obvious admission to breaking the Logan act

Agreed, the war was already started, but it would have been a major escalation.  Also, what's the obvious admission to breaking the logan act?

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1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

Agreed, the war was already started, but it would have been a major escalation.  Also, what's the obvious admission to breaking the logan act?

I agree that you believe that about escalating the war.

Musk was obviously conducting foreign policy as a private citizen.   That's against the law.

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1 minute ago, pfife said:

I agree that you believe that about escalating the war.

Musk was obviously conducting foreign policy as a private citizen.   That's against the law.

How was he conducting foreign policy?  He agreed to provide them a service within their pre 2022 boundaries and he did it for free for awhile at that.  To my understanding the service he is providing is not breaking US laws nor am I aware of the US demanding any regulation of that service.   He has provided the service he stated he would provide, Ukraine just wanted more and per Musk, he believes providing that would have in fact been illegal.  Maybe he is wrong, but it is not illegal to be wrong and/or error on the side of caution when it comes to the law.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-joe-biden-us-government-responsible-for-starlink-debacle-2023-9#:~:text=Starlink is not allowed to,No such request came through."

Quote

Starlink is not allowed to turn access on in Crimea without government approval, he said. "If I got a request from the president type of thing — from the American president, to be clear — then I would have turned it on," Musk said about the use of Starlink in Crimea. "No such request came through."

 

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