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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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49 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

To finish the thought, it's hard to dismiss the notion that the Biden admin is deliberately acting to drag out this war and achieve the maximum possible bleed-out of the Putin Regime.

The problem right now is:

Ukraine starts out with 1/3 the population of Russia. And then lost land/ peoples to Russia in 2022.

They're currently suffering from a lack of manpower to take on the Russian behemoth. And are in fact complaining (or explaining...) that they don't have enough personnel to man all of the Western equipment that they've received. They're in a difficult spot right now of having had some success in their counteroffensive against Russian forces; but not enough manpower to sustain a push all the way to the Sea of Azov or, in the Kherson Oblast (East of the Dnieper), to block the entrance/ exit to Crimea. Either would give them a tactical advantage against Russia. But...

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17 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

To finish the thought, it's hard to dismiss the notion that the Biden admin is deliberately acting to drag out this war and achieve the maximum possible bleed-out of the Putin Regime.

Do we even have that kind of time? The two historical things working against it that I can think of are that the war is still super popular because Russia has a history of superpatriotism, and also of giving up tens of millions of their boys and men for the Motherland. They all know what they’re getting into when these kinds of things start.

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Remember this? This is how people get all misty-eyed about the bravery of their soldiers and the valor of war in that part of the world, pesecially since the battles happen right there. Yes, this is Got Talent in Ukraine, not Russia, but they both feel the same way about the massive sacrifices: it is to be honored throughout history, and even something to strive for as a legacy. 

 

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Ukraine has been crossing over the Dnieper from Kherson City (west riverbank) into the rest of Kherson Oblast (east riverbank) with special forces, etc... Not heavy equipment yet. If they could do that (tanks and such), they'd be able to shut off land access into Crimea and attack Russian forces from the rear in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (province).

Russia was hurrying a military convoy to Kherson Oblast to try and stem the riverbank landings and Ukrainian small team attacks resulting from prior landings.

Ukrainian drones and HIMARS demolished that convoy (11 or so transport trucks, 50 Russian soldier deaths, many more wounded...).

Is this what your comment is on?

Avdiivka however, also, is a never-ending stream of equipment and fodder-soldiers sent to their deaths so I don't know what the latest is on that... But either or both of these stories are more examples of Russians' ASTOUNDING losses...

Bottom line though, is: Putin Don't Care.

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16 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Ukraine has been crossing over the Dnieper from Kherson City (west riverbank) into the rest of Kherson Oblast (east riverbank) with special forces, etc... Not heavy equipment yet. If they could do that (tanks and such), they'd be able to shut off land access into Crimea and attack Russian forces from the rear in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (province).

Russia was hurrying a military convoy to Kherson Oblast to try and stem the riverbank landings and Ukrainian small team attacks resulting from prior landings.

Ukrainian drones and HIMARS demolished that convoy (11 or so transport trucks, 50 Russian soldier deaths, many more wounded...).

Is this what your comment is on?

Avdiivka however, also, is a never-ending stream of equipment and fodder-soldiers sent to their deaths so I don't know what the latest is on that... But either or both of these stories are more examples of Russians' ASTOUNDING losses...

Bottom line though, is: Putin Don't Care.

This was probably said somewhere in this thread up toward the March/April 2022 time frame when the Russians had to pull back from their over-extended lines.   Sun Tzu has some quote about Strategy without Tactics are the slowest route to victory.  I've heard it in other context as "Strategy without Tactics are bloody minded."   If your only plan is to get through the wall and you don't learn how to climb it you will break your nose trying to get through the wall.  Basically, you are drawing arrows on the map without regard to how things occur.   Tactics without Strategy on the other hand are futile.  E.g., Its great you know how to engage the North Vietnamese with your helicopter-based forces backed with all sorts of airpower and firebases with accurate artillery fires, but is just killing NVA forces really a way to counter North Vietnamese war aims?

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34 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

where is everyone following the war in Ukraine, its seems to have fallen off the front pages of CNN and MSNBC?

@noclador

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA

 
@wartranslated
 
Some others as well.   If you are looking for war headlines in a newspaper. 
US funded Radio Free Europe (not just an REM song)
German funded Deutch Welle
 
Washington Post's dedicated page for war coverage.
 
The former Manchester Guardian which while remaining the ****s who paid Glenn Greenwald to propagate the Russian Snowden operation do have good coverage of Putin's invasion.
 
The Beeb...venerable but reliable.
  • Thanks 1
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12 minutes ago, romad1 said:

@noclador

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA

 
@wartranslated
 
Some others as well.   If you are looking for war headlines in a newspaper. 
US funded Radio Free Europe (not just an REM song)
German funded Deutch Welle
 
Washington Post's dedicated page for war coverage.
 
The former Manchester Guardian which while remaining the ****s who paid Glenn Greenwald to propagate the Russian Snowden operation do have good coverage of Putin's invasion.
 
The Beeb...venerable but reliable.

Thanks.. I watch Pod save the world's youtube show but they kind of do an over view of all international news and i'd like a little in depth coverage of the war

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-ukraine-russia-war-negotiations-rcna131581

If true, a sad, but almost always likely outcome.  Well, possibly except for the west pushing Zelensky to actively fight instead of giving up NATO membership which would have saved so many lives and land for Ukraine, but ultimately it worked out best for the US/West and humiliated Russia in front of the whole world which is so much more important.

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1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-ukraine-russia-war-negotiations-rcna131581

If true, a sad, but almost always likely outcome.  Well, possibly except for the west pushing Zelensky to actively fight instead of giving up NATO membership which would have saved so many lives and land for Ukraine, but ultimately it worked out best for the US/West and humiliated Russia in front of the whole world which is so much more important.

I told a co-worker this the other day.  The foreign policy establishment of the Democratic party has a fetish built up around the Cuban Missile Crisis and the sage wisdom of the measured approach people.   That has its limits when we are in a broken glass actual war.   At a minimum, at least Biden is a rational actor.

Obviously, the Republican party foreign policy establishment is a mess right now with many humiliated by the experience of the Neocon theory failure in Iraq and others in the thrall of their Russian paymasters.  

Ukraine, the West, the US and the World need Ukraine to get to a military solution to Russian aggression.   

 

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3 hours ago, ewsieg said:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-ukraine-russia-war-negotiations-rcna131581

If true, a sad, but almost always likely outcome.  Well, possibly except for the west pushing Zelensky to actively fight instead of giving up NATO membership which would have saved so many lives and land for Ukraine, but ultimately it worked out best for the US/West and humiliated Russia in front of the whole world which is so much more important.

Why do you always offer fallacious takes? The West did NOT push Zelensky, that's bull****. Believe that if you want; but it is NOT factually correct.

The West did NOT push Zelensky to fight. ZELENSKY pushed his country to fight because: (A) That is the politically correct stance to take in a country that has been invaded. According to you, the stance should be instead... what? "Oh you want all our land? OK, go ahead and take it." THAT's your stance? (B) Promising NO NATO would NOT, nor will NOT, stop Putin. He'd have laughed at that and proceeded to attack Kiev. Putin wants to wipe Ukraine off the map. The ONLY choice for Ukrainians was to fight. And that INCLUDES fighting for NATO membership. There are NO alternatives in dealing with Putin. (C) In order to GAIN western support, Ukraine had to fight. The support prior to the Kharkiv campaign from the West was tepid. AFTER Kharkiv (and Kherson), when the Ukrainians pushed the Russians back significantly... only THEN did the West open up the floodgates of support. (D) Ukraine, as a COUNTRY wanted to fight back. They do NOT want to be wiped out by Russia, or taken over by another murderous Russian regime (they've already experienced Stalin, mind you, who starved to death approximately 14 million Ukrainians in the Holodomyr, and they view Putin as no different). Zelensky's ONLY choice, politically, was to fight. Full circle.

Can we please have the FACTS straight? Any opinions based on facts are great... but based on falsehoods are... not so great.

 

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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One further point:

The "West" has dragged its feet in giving Ukraine weapons to defend themselves, dragged their feet in giving them air defense missiles, dragged their feet in giving them tanks, dragged their feet in giving them jets... they've been dragging their feet since day 1. To turn around and say "the West has "pushed" Ukraine or Zelensky", in any way, shape or form... is laughable and ridiculous.

If anything... the West should be taken to task for dragging their feet. Had they been several months faster in giving Ukraine all manner of weapons... Russia would not have had the time to build up their defenses on newly taken Ukrainian territory and very well may have been pushed backwards to 2014 lines of engagement. No guarantees...

But a much faster arming of Ukraine probably results in a much more successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. IMO.

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Zelensky and Ukraine fought back, no one is disputing that.  At one point though, the Russian invasion was showing just how incompetent Russia forces were and the head of Zelensky's own party thought they had a drafted peace plan in place when out of nowhere, who should arrive to cheer on Ukraine, Boris Johnson.  And if you think he arrived to offer support without the backing of the US, you're kidding yourself.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-offered-end-war-if-ukraine-dropped-nato-bid-kyiv-official-1847373

Quote

"They really hoped almost to the last that they would put the squeeze on us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality," Arakhamia told Moseychuck, according to an English translation of his comments by the Kyiv Post. "It was the biggest thing for them."

"They were ready to end the war if we took...neutrality and made commitments that we would not join NATO. This was the key point," the Ukrainian official added.

Quote

Arakhamia also said that Ukrainian officials did not trust Russia to uphold their end of the bargain.

"There is no, and there was no, trust in the Russians that they would do it. That could only be done if there were security guarantees," he told Moseychuck.

Elsewhere in the interview, Arakhamia brought up former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's surprise visit to Kyiv in April 2022. He said Johnson encouraged Ukraine to not "sign anything" with Russia and "just fight."

 

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Zelensky and Ukraine fought back, no one is disputing that.  At one point though, the Russian invasion was showing just how incompetent Russia forces were and the head of Zelensky's own party thought they had a drafted peace plan in place when out of nowhere, who should arrive to cheer on Ukraine, Boris Johnson.  And if you think he arrived to offer support without the backing of the US, you're kidding yourself.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-offered-end-war-if-ukraine-dropped-nato-bid-kyiv-official-1847373

 

Your OWN QUOTES state why the rest of your post, after the bolded part, is COMPLETE FALLACY.

Russia was never serious about peace, YOUR QUOTE.

Ukraine NEVER trusted Russia... YOUR QUOTE.

RUSSIA wanted Ukrainian neutrality, and Ukrainian land, and Ukraine DID NOT TRUST them... YOUR QUOTE.

You're working REALLY HARD to try and twist this around...

But...

Sorry. No dice.

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7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Your OWN QUOTES state why the rest of your post, after the bolded part, is COMPLETE FALLACY.

Russia was never serious about peace, YOUR QUOTE.

Ukraine NEVER trusted Russia... YOUR QUOTE.

RUSSIA wanted Ukrainian neutrality, and Ukrainian land, and Ukraine DID NOT TRUST them... YOUR QUOTE.

You're working REALLY HARD to try and twist this around...

But...

Sorry. No dice.

By your black and white view of the world, there would be no peace ever.   

My quote indicates Russia was serious about finding a way to back out of the war after they realized they ****ed around and found out. 

Ukraine didn't trust them, we at least agree on that.  But that doesn't mean they wouldn't come to an agreement with them.  They said they would have needed security agreements and the only ones that they would trust would have had to come from the US and other NATO nations.  No indication we even discussed anything like that, instead we sent Johnson in to give a pep rally.

I'm not working really hard to try and twist anything, I provided an article from a reputable organization and the source is clearly a Zelensky supporter.  He's the one saying they were close to a deal but that it would need security agreements, he's the one that said Johnson came in and urged them to keep fighting.  My guess is in the upcoming months after Johnson came in they were pretty confident they made the right call to keep fighting.  But now we're years into it and it's not looking bright for Ukraine and simply due to manpower alone, it may not matter if we overload them with equipment.  It's bleak in Ukraine and it appears we squandered an opportunity to reach peace earlier.  I bolded that part because I need you to realize that i'm not saying there was certain peace and we refused to allow it to happen, i'm saying it looks like we had a legit shot at Ukraine getting land back (pre 2021 at least) and saving countless lives as well.

 

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