gehringer_2 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Archie said: Then at the end of WW2 or right after the Soviets were a biggest threat. Iran and China should be our biggest concern right now especially when (not if) Iran gets a nuclear weapon. It's an curious calculus. Putin attacking Ukraine is not a direct threat to the US like the wars in the middle east that threatened oil supplies a generation ago were. And in fact if Ukraine fell back completely into the Russian orbit it would not even have significant impact on the world economy. The ex-Sov block are not serious economic players and even on the energy front Putin wants a puppet gov in Ukraine more to guarantee he *can* sell gas into Europe than so he can threaten the EU not to. What's at stake in Europe is all about principle, not so much actual security or economics, and Putin may be right that the West may rather compromise principle than actually spend blood and treasure when it's just as easy to say "Well Ukraine has been part of Russia since Catherine the Great - this is just a return to the longer term status quo" Taiwan is a much tougher case. If an attempted Chinese take-over of Taiwan led to widespread destruction of the Taiwanese economy it would seriously upend the world economy. The are a big player and are huge in many critical technologies like semi-conductor manufacture. And of course if the Taiwanese actually landed any blows of their own on the mainland? It's formulae for real chaos. I don't see the Japanese or Korean or even us being willing to go to war with China over Taiwan, but it still would be chaos enough short of that. But Xi is probably too smart for that. Unlike Putin who is too imperialist to care about what he may break, Xi wants his cake and to eat it too. He wants Taiwan intact. So I think we are looking at a very long game pressure campaign hoping to just tire everyone out - and the question of how hard the Taiwanese would actually fight? Who knows on that one. Bottom line I wouldn't argue that China is a more serious threat, but Putin is a more immediate one to cause trouble. Edited December 4, 2021 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: It's an curious calculus. Putin attacking Ukraine is not a direct threat to the US like the wars in the middle east that threatened oil supplies a generation ago were. And in fact if Ukraine fell back completely into the Russian orbit it would not even have significant impact on the world economy. The ex-Sov block are not serious economic players and even on the energy front Putin wants a puppet gov in Ukraine more to guarantee he *can* sell gas into Europe than so he can threaten the EU not to. What's at stake in Europe is all about principle, not so much actual security or economics, and Putin may be right that the West may rather compromise principle than actually spend blood and treasure when it's just as easy to say "Well Ukraine has been part of Russia since Catherine the Great - this is just a return to the longer term status quo" Taiwan is a much tougher case. If an attempted Chinese take-over of Taiwan led to widespread destruction of the Taiwanese economy it would seriously upend the world economy. The are a big player and are huge in many critical technologies like semi-conductor manufacture. And of course if the Taiwanese actually landed any blows of their own on the mainland? It's formulae for real chaos. I don't see the Japanese or Korean or even us being willing to go to war with China over Taiwan, but it still would be chaos enough short of that. But Xi is probably too smart for that. Unlike Putin who is too imperialist to care about what he may break, Xi wants his cake and to eat it too. He wants Taiwan intact. So I think we are looking at a very long game pressure campaign hoping to just tire everyone out - and the question of how hard the Taiwanese would actually fight? Who knows on that one. Bottom line I wouldn't argue that China is a more serious threat, but Putin is a more immediate one to cause trouble. We are bound by treaty to protect Poland and Romania as well as Japan and S. Korea. The gray space with Ukraine and Taiwan is that I have heard several times in recent days: "America would never shed blood over X or Y" is exactly the kind of thing that can get everyone killed. You either have multi-lateral collective security or you do not. You either make security guarantees to scare Putin from attacking Ukraine or he does. You either tell Xi that he will not violently take over another South Asian democracy or he will. Edited December 4, 2021 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 As for Russia not being as big a concern as Iran...talk about exactly what Putin wants the RW nutters to think. Putin's a Christian, he doesn't like homosexuals, he believes in slapping a ho, and probably supports the right to keep and bear arms! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, romad1 said: The gray space with Ukraine and Taiwan is that I have heard several times in recent days: but the reason that space is grey is exactly because we don't have a security treaty with Ukraine or Taiwan and are not likely to in the time frame that something could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 42 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: but the reason that space is grey is exactly because we don't have a security treaty with Ukraine or Taiwan and are not likely to in the time frame that something could happen. The minute we do… [blank] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Vladdie thinks he can use the Kim Jong Un playbook? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/biden-putin-meeting-nato-ukraine/2021/12/06/71225812-5677-11ec-8396-5552bef55c3c_story.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, romad1 said: Vladdie thinks he can use the Kim Jong Un playbook? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/biden-putin-meeting-nato-ukraine/2021/12/06/71225812-5677-11ec-8396-5552bef55c3c_story.html too bad Ukraine is painfully flat. Not the best terrain for asymmetrical warfare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: too bad Ukraine is painfully flat. Not the best terrain for asymmetrical warfare the 3d dimensions of physical geography maybe. The dimension of popular will is entirely asymetric for Vladdie. He won't break the Ukrainian popular will to resist Big Russia. Edited December 7, 2021 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Tucker appears to be fully carrying water for Vlad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Putin's going to appear at Dealey Plaza with JFK Jr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Hmmm, why did we not but up a fight for Crimea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Hmmm, why did we not but up a fight for Crimea? it is a fact that Russia has real historic ties/claims - particularly in Crimea. In fact it is a more than a little ironic that that Ex-Soviet Russia is being hoist on the petard of their own false reality system. The Soviets created fig leaf 'independent' soviet 'states' within the CCCP as a misdirection over the reality of their status as a land empire. Ukraine was not independent under the Tsars and wasn't under the Soviets either. But the Russian are now being bitten by the fact that they initially made them a separate state on paper and the question is now is whether that has morphed into a different reality on the ground. The Ukrainians seem to think so! It's very easy for the west to dismiss Russian claims in the name of the claimed greater virtue of self-determination, but we should remember that the worst war we ever fought (and won) was pretty much to deny a portion of our countrymen self-determination. We would claim we fought their self-determination in the name of a higher virtue, while we will claim to support Ukraine's self-determination also in the name of a higher virtue of being anti-Russian. But virtue is in the eye of the beholder. You can't negotiate with Russia on the basis that you find them the source of vice. It may be true but it's still a non-starter at the negotiating table! So the first thing to accept is that even if it weren't Putin, any Russian leader is likely to put up a fight over Ukraine joining NATO. If what's important is doing right by the people of Ukraine, we won't be doing them any favors by turning their country into a worse war zone than it is. It's more important to persuade Putin to keep his hands to himself so Ukraine can develop on its own path, than to insure Ukraine has a path to NATO membership. If a deal can be made for a non-aligned but basically free Ukraine (the Finland model), the West would be both foolish and wrong not to take it. Finland is doing fine, BTW. They found a path where they get along with the West and they get along with Russia both quite nicely. NATO survives quite well without them and the Russians don't seem to feel threatened their fully Europeanized political and economic organization at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Putin won't invade, he is going to use Ukraine as puppet leverage. While the west is focused on preventing the proxy war from escalating he makes his chess move elsewhere, watch.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 12:06 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: Hmmm, why did we not but up a fight for Crimea? Too distracted by GWOT. The public's perception of Putin had not coalesced around his true nature. He invaded Georgia as well. We took a while to figure out Hitler and Tojo's game too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 20 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Putin won't invade, he is going to use Ukraine as puppet leverage. While the west is focused on preventing the proxy war from escalating he makes his chess move elsewhere, watch.... He's the distraction from Taiwan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 say what you will about what the Ukrainian military actually does when this thing jumps off next month... This ad creates great sympathy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Remember: Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons because of the security guarantees we gave it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Come on...lets do this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, romad1 said: Come on...lets do this. Well, it would be one way to the Russians 'inside' NATO as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 hours ago, romad1 said: Remember: Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons because of the security guarantees we gave it. You followed this up with a post about possibly bringing Ukraine into Nato. Didn't we also make promises to Russia we wouldn't encroach on them as well, then we added a bunch of eastern bloc countries to Nato. Not saying adding Ukraine is a good or bad thing, but just sayin'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 16 hours ago, romad1 said: Remember: Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons because of the security guarantees we gave it. Because of the security guarantees that RUSSIA gave it... And us too... But Russia hasn't exactly... complied... with those security agreements... In a manner of speaking... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just to be dickheads, let's announce that we are considering allowing Taiwan into NATO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: Just to be dickheads, let's announce that we are considering allowing Taiwan into NATO. Wouldn't work because they're not eligible for NATO. But ASEAN would work just fine... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 more propaganda but very well made Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 i hope they fight as well as they make ads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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