1984Echoes Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 3 hours ago, chasfh said: TBF, that’s a lot a lot more imported from the land of Elsewhere as well. North Korea and Iran. Awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: North Korea and Iran. Awesome. Just wondering out loud here. From a foreign policy standpoint of weakening our enemy, propping up Ukraine to continue fighting and making Russia look weak, how much of the decision making was on if we try and find a peaceful end to allow middle aged Ukrainian men to live and repopulate what's left of their country and allow some stability versus, we've already made Russia look weak, now we can pull weapons out of Iran and China and allow them to be used in Ukraine, further weakening them. For all I know, production could have just been ramped up, allowing Iran/China to sell and make even more for themselves down the road. Actually now that I say it, it probably was a specific reason we allow this war to continue and Iran/China have made money allowing them to increase for themselves to and it's a lose/lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Looks like Georgia is next up in the crosshairs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 BTW, juxtapose this with the school protests in the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Behold, America: your future, if you allow it. Of course, given the strain of anti-intellectualism that runs rife in this country, probably most people won't see this as a bad thing at all. This affects only the elites who I hate anyway, so this would be quite acceptable, even some moderate-by-American-standards people would think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 We really have too few technically informed people in the US gov. Ukraine has started going after Russian refining capacity in a big way - some reports say they have disabled 15% of Russia's refining capacity. That may not sound that high but nobody leaves excess refining capacity around - it's too expensive, so capacity tends to match demand very closely - thus even a moderate reduction in capacity creates shortages. But the US - apparently in it's official ignorance, has complained to Ukraine that they don't want them to do that because it will push up oil prices. Except that if one user can't refine oil, you have reduced crude oil demand - that means MORE crude oil is left for the world market, not less, which means crude oil prices do not go up when you disable Russian refineries. Engin-Econ 101 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/us-slams-strikes-on-russia-oil-refineries-as-risk-to-oil-markets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 You're looking at it from a textbook economic view. Channeling Dangerfield in Back to School, the attacks on the refineries leads to a perceived attack on oil, so Russia greases up OPEC to find a way to increase the cost per barrel under a 'the market is shaky' excuse and then the US cost goes up not because we can't just supply our own country, but because our suppliers, as they are finger wagging at OPEC, gladly sell their oil abroad. Everyone wins, except for us commoners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 (edited) 30 minutes ago, ewsieg said: You're looking at it from a textbook economic view. Channeling Dangerfield in Back to School, the attacks on the refineries leads to a perceived attack on oil, so Russia greases up OPEC to find a way to increase the cost per barrel under a 'the market is shaky' excuse and then the US cost goes up not because we can't just supply our own country, but because our suppliers, as they are finger wagging at OPEC, gladly sell their oil abroad. Everyone wins, except for us commoners. you're overthinking it.... The other thing about oil is that you'd think it would be relatively easy for producers to cut back production and the market would be very elastic - but it turns out not so much. Oil coming from secondary and tertiary recovery methods is not so easy to stop and start, and the places were the oil is still easy (Middle East) most of the them need the money too much to cut back. Saudi is the only place that can really soften or firm the market - The question is what do they think about the war In Ukraine? Pre- MBS they were pretty anti-Russia. With MBS, who knows? Edited May 10 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 So, they fired Shoigu and hired another guy with no military experience to be their MOD. And this happened right after I wonder if new guy is trying to impress the boss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, romad1 said: So, they fired Shoigu and hired another guy with no military experience to be their MOD. And this happened right after I wonder if new guy is trying to impress the boss. is the sclerotic nature of Russian command and control going to be able to adjust to improving resourcing of the opposition, or are they in effect going to get rope-a-doped - committed to a set of objectives that will become untenable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: committed to a set of objectives that will become untenable? Do you actually believe Ukraine is in a better spot right now then Russia? And when I say a better spot, I'm referring to Russia and Ukraine's ultimate goal of controlling land. Short term (next several years, regardless if Trump or Biden is the next president), Ukraine is ****ed. Putin doesn't care about his losses as long as he holds and increases land. Long term this is good for the US, because Russia is in an untenable situation in that it's reworked its economy for war, so it needs war. If it wins in Ukraine, it's screwed. But slowly killing off both Ukrainians and themselves, they can and are more than willing to do that for years. The longer they do that though, the worse their economy will be when it ends. The longer this lasts the better for the US, but also the worse for Ukraine. But let's keep up with the ultra nationalism for Ukraine (which we hate for our own country) and keep claiming that they just want to fight, so what else can we do but keep on supplying them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Russia is trying to build a buffer on the border so Ukraine can't attack into Russia proper or hit their logistics facilities because of someone in the US National Security community's or maybe the EU's bedwetting attempts to prevent escalation. Russia always takes advantage of the hand wringing of the weaker party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 9 hours ago, ewsieg said: Do you actually believe Ukraine is in a better spot right now then Russia? And when I say a better spot, I'm referring to Russia and Ukraine's ultimate goal of controlling land. Short term (next several years, regardless if Trump or Biden is the next president), Ukraine is ****ed. Putin doesn't care about his losses as long as he holds and increases land. Sometimes Americans will fantasize about Russian mothers by the hundreds of thousands protesting their boys dying and forcing Putin to end the war to save their lives. That would be a cultural 180 for those people, and I promise you, we will never see that. The Russian people—I wouldn’t say they don’t care about the losses, but—they have been conditioned as a people to accept millions and millions of dead in their wars across the centuries, so losing a few million here would be basically a blip in their history. It will be sad in the moment, and then they will write long Russian poems and songs about their heroism, and they will be celebrated, not mourned. It’s just not the same there as it is here. Russia has the numbers, and they have a national resignation to this kind of thing happening, and in the end, they accept it as the condition of being Russian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, chasfh said: Sometimes Americans will fantasize about Russian mothers by the hundreds of thousands protesting their boys dying and forcing Putin to end the war to save their lives. That would be a cultural 180 for those people, and I promise you, we will never see that. There was a lot of public push back over Afghanistan, but hard times after the Soviet collapse and 20 yrs of Putin have created a different Russia from that one. But that is not to say Putin cannot drive Russia to collapse. The problem for the West is that total collapse will not be a good outcome, you want the regime to collapse before the country does - not so easy to see the path to that. The West's strategy is based on the Russian army collapsing eventually - and any armed service will eventually, but of course that requires Ukraine not to collapse first. It's purely a political economics question. Modern warfare is foremost an economic battle and the West's resources dwarf Russia's, but Russia (well at least Putin) balances that by being willing to put all their resources into the fight while the West wants to win on the minimum required investment. Missing on that calculation is where disaster lurks for Ukraine. Edited May 14 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Putin's and Deripaska's least favorite American wants to raise the stakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 1 hour ago, romad1 said: Putin's and Deripaska's least favorite American wants to raise the stakes. I'm telling Ukraine to go ahead and target any Russian military target that they want to... Inside or outside of Russia, makes no difference to me. Putin has declared war against the United States of America, Democracy, and Europe. Fine. We should respond in kind. A formal declaration of "Cold" War against Russia, and if it comes to a military confrontation (not just proxy wars, or cyberwars, etc...) then do it. I'm tired of Russia engaging in war on Democracy, the U.S. and Europe, and us pussyfooting around the subject. He is a lethal threat. Declare it so, and act upon it as necessary. Put 80,000 NATO troops in western Ukraine (west of the Dnieper); put in all the air defense weapons as is necessary, start building walls and trench lines and all other defenses as necessary starting from the Ukraine-Byelorussia border and working eastward. The Great Wall of Not Russia. IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I'm telling Ukraine to go ahead and target any Russian military target that they want to... Inside or outside of Russia, makes no difference to me. Putin has declared war against the United States of America, Democracy, and Europe. Fine. We should respond in kind. A formal declaration of "Cold" War against Russia, and if it comes to a military confrontation (not just proxy wars, or cyberwars, etc...) then do it. I'm tired of Russia engaging in war on Democracy, the U.S. and Europe, and us pussyfooting around the subject. He is a lethal threat. Declare it so, and act upon it as necessary. Put 80,000 NATO troops in western Ukraine (west of the Dnieper); put in all the air defense weapons as is necessary, start building walls and trench lines and all other defenses as necessary starting from the Ukraine-Byelorussia border and working eastward. The Great Wall of Not Russia. IMO. People will probably balk at that. I think Ukraine should be able to use the weapons we provide to win the war. That would include destroying infrastructure of war inside Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 1 minute ago, romad1 said: People will probably balk at that. The general populace would definitely balk at that. I think their weak-willed response is encouraging Putin. It's what he expected. Stand up to him more forcefully... and he'd back down. The rest of your post... Absolutely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: The general populace would definitely balk at that. I think their weak-willed response is encouraging Putin. It's what he expected. Stand up to him more forcefully... and he'd back down. The rest of your post... Absolutely. Clausewitz, the trinity of war, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 These jokers with their pair of twos are trying to ante up in the big boy's game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 This concerns me https://www.the-sun.com/news/11462689/putin-arrest-military-brass-sweeping-purge-ukraine-failure/ The last thing we want from these evil Putinists is efficiency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 5 hours ago, romad1 said: This concerns me https://www.the-sun.com/news/11462689/putin-arrest-military-brass-sweeping-purge-ukraine-failure/ The last thing we want from these evil Putinists is efficiency. Purges may cut down on the graft -though if Putin just replaces the guys going out with more of his BFFs the new guys won't be any more honest, but graft aside, purges won't make them better, they will just freeze the org as everyone works harder to keep their head down and make sure they can't be blamed for anything. A low initiative org will asymtoptically approach a zero initiate one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Purges may cut down on the graft -though if Putin just replaces the guys going out with more of his BFFs the new guys won't be any more honest, but graft aside, purges won't make them better, they will just freeze the org as everyone works harder to keep their head down and make sure they can't be blamed for anything. A low initiative org will asymtoptically approach a zero initiate one. History suggests that it worked in WW2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: History suggests that it worked in WW2 I suppose. Are there still enough 'believers' left in Russia 80yr later? The men who ran WWII for the CCCP were born before the revolution. Maybe they didn't like Stalin but they still thought they were building/defending something. How much is Russia today a world of grey men by comparison? If Putin can whip up WWII kinds of motivation to serve the Rodina, maybe he deserves more credit. Granted he certainly tries to in evoke the WWII mythos at every turn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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