1984Echoes Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 8:18 PM, gehringer_2 said: Given the control his has over his domestic media, he can take whatever offer the West has already put on the table, declare it a great victory and go home none the worse for wear. Expand We can only hope. Nobody wants war. Well... Putin did. Uncertain if he still wants it or if he'll take the offer that the U.S. is giving him (after pushing for as much as he can get with his saber rattling...). Quote
chasfh Posted February 2, 2022 Author Posted February 2, 2022 Maybe Putin is believing his own press that says Biden is weak and is making America a laughingstock. If so, catching him flat-footed on that is working for us here. Quote
mtutiger Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 11:24 PM, chasfh said: Maybe Putin is believing his own press that says Biden is weak and is making America a laughingstock. If so, catching him flat-footed on that is working for us here. Expand I just don't think he expected as much of a unified approach as he has gotten not only internally here in the states, but with NATO states at large. On the former point, as much intransigence exists and as much as guys like Tucker talk about how we need to leave Russia alone, the reality is that the majority of GOP politicians seem to be either relatively behind the President's approach in terms of moving troops to Eastern Europe or advocate for being more aggressive (ie.things like Sanctions pre-invasion). In other words, I think he expected a lot more division in the US than has manifested itself. On the latter point, NATO countries seem relatively attuned to their aggression, particularly more than they were a week and a half ago. Countries are sending supplies and aid to Ukraine. And even Germany, which has been relatively beholden to Russia because of North Stream 2, seems to be signaling that an invasion would follow with sanctions. Putin expected a divided west and ultimately he bet wrong. I dont know if he will invade or not, but I suspect that the goal from a diplomatic POV is to come up with an off-ramp so he can save face / declare a victory. 1 Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 12:26 AM, mtutiger said: I just don't think he expected as much of a unified approach as he has gotten not only internally here in the states, but with NATO states at large. On the former point, as much intransigence exists and as much as guys like Tucker talk about how we need to leave Russia alone, the reality is that the majority of GOP politicians seem to be either relatively behind the President's approach in terms of moving troops to Eastern Europe or advocate for being more aggressive (ie.things like Sanctions pre-invasion). In other words, I think he expected a lot more division in the US than has manifested itself. On the latter point, NATO countries seem relatively attuned to their aggression, particularly more than they were a week and a half ago. Countries are sending supplies and aid to Ukraine. And even Germany, which has been relatively beholden to Russia because of North Stream 2, seems to be signaling that an invasion would follow with sanctions. Putin expected a divided west and ultimately he bet wrong. I dont know if he will invade or not, but I suspect that the goal from a diplomatic POV is to come up with an off-ramp so he can save face / declare a victory. Expand I hope this is true. Putin isn't beyond making mistakes. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 This is his long term play. Get Trump reelected. Once Trump has no shackles and can rule by fiat. Putin wins everything. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 So, was just thinking about the political psychology of Biden in this European crisis. Lifelong sufferer of his stutter. May have been bullied. Genial. Loves being the "good guy" and seems to be a huge fan of collective security. Might be the ideal person to respond to Putin. Quote
chasfh Posted February 3, 2022 Author Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 11:22 AM, romad1 said: So, was just thinking about the political psychology of Biden in this European crisis. Lifelong sufferer of his stutter. May have been bullied. Genial. Loves being the "good guy" and seems to be a huge fan of collective security. Might be the ideal person to respond to Putin. Expand I think Hillary would have responded in similar fashion, with the same or even better cooperation from allies. Given her tenure at State, this kind of situation seems right up her alley. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:20 PM, chasfh said: I think Hillary would have responded in similar fashion, with the same or even better cooperation from allies. Given her tenure at State, this kind of situation seems right up her alley. Expand Not to disagree but, I disagree. I think we can let that go as to why. I have a couple of templates for her behavior that I might be retaining from my days when i viewed her has a political adversary and I'll leave it there. Quote
chasfh Posted February 3, 2022 Author Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:26 PM, romad1 said: Not to disagree but, I disagree. I think we can let that go as to why. I have a couple of templates for her behavior that I might be retaining from my days when i viewed her has a political adversary and I'll leave it there. Expand Not to seem dismissive of your authority on the subject, but I had seen in multiple sources that Putin did not want Hillary to be President specifically because she was such a tough-minded adversary at State, and that she had the ear of all the major European allies. I believe one of the places I’d seen that was in one of the first books released early during the Trump admin. Not true? Quote
mtutiger Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 Where's Archie to tell us now selling more American LNG actually projects weakness? Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:33 PM, chasfh said: Not to seem dismissive of your authority on the subject, but I had seen in multiple sources that Putin did not want Hillary to be President specifically because she was such a tough-minded adversary at State, and that she had the ear of all the major European allies. I believe one of the places I’d seen that was in one of the first books released early during the Trump admin. Not true? Expand No, no...I'm not claiming authority. Tough-minded is fine. She has many other characteristics that do not breed success in collective security. Quote
chasfh Posted February 3, 2022 Author Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:35 PM, romad1 said: No, no...I'm not claiming authority. Tough-minded is fine. She has many other characteristics that do not breed success in collective security. Expand I just meant you’re the guy with more inside dope than all the rest of us combined, is all. You know actual stuff. As President of the United States, if you can’t win them over by force of personality, win them over by force.I would think in a situation like this she could rely on the former more than the latter. There’s no way to know for sure, of course, but I’m thinking her success level right now would have been at least the equal of Biden’s. Can you imagine having the other guy in the White House at this moment? Holy shit, the mind boggles. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:42 PM, chasfh said: I just meant you’re the guy with more inside dope than all the rest of us combined, is all. You know actual stuff. As President of the United States, if you can’t win them over by force of personality, win them over by force.I would think in a situation like this she could rely on the former more than the latter. There’s no way to know for sure, of course, but I’m thinking her success level right now would have been at least the equal of Biden’s. Can you imagine having the other guy in the White House at this moment? Holy shit, the mind boggles. Expand For sure. It already has boggled. Vindeman et. al., but it would be beyond scary to see him in this knowing he has to do exactly what Putin wants. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 the thing that really is their center of gravity. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:01 PM, mtutiger said: Expand Petulance Quote
chasfh Posted February 3, 2022 Author Posted February 3, 2022 Have the russophile right wing media like Fox and their fellow travelers alarmed their viewers with visions of nuclear retaliation if we don't give Putin what he wants? Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:39 PM, chasfh said: Have the russophile right wing media like Fox and their fellow travelers alarmed their viewers with visions of nuclear retaliation if we don't give Putin what he wants? Expand I think they are arguing that Putin is the only "Christian" leader and therefore we should support him. 1 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:25 PM, romad1 said: I think they are arguing that Putin is the only "Christian" leader and therefore we should support him. Expand true, he represents himself as the defender of the eldest of all churches. Then again, as I've gotten older my opinion has tended toward the belief that the only thing historicity does for churches is embed their corruption. Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:33 PM, gehringer_2 said: true, he represents himself as the defender of the eldest of all churches. Then again, as I've gotten older my opinion has tended toward the belief that the only thing historicity does for churches is embed their corruption. Expand Religion is the last refuge of the scoundrel of course. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) The problem for guy like Putin is that being without constraints he is free to revel in all his prejudices, and soon enough he forgets they're only his prejudices and starts to see them as truth - so it's self re-enforcing. That helps give him the great self-confidence that every good tyrant needs, but also puts him on the wrong side of right nearly all of the time. Edited February 3, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote
romad1 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:49 PM, gehringer_2 said: The problem for guy like Putin is that being without constraints he is free to revel in all his prejudices, and soon enough he forgets they only his prejudices and starts to see them as truth - so it's self re-enforcing. That helps give him the great self-confidence that every good tyrant needs, but also puts him on the wrong side of right nearly all of the time. Expand I think its not without evidence that he has been "telling himself a story" about all this. Which conforms to the above. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.