Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:50 AM, chasfh said:

I’m starting to wonder what the US would do if Xi goes for Taiwan at the same time Putin goes for Ukraine. Those two have become pretty good friends lately.

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Fight for taiwan.   

[romad1]

 

[romad1]

Macron!  Sadly, I don't think this is actually going to occur. 

[chasfh]

  On 2/8/2022 at 3:11 AM, romad1 said:

Fight for taiwan.   

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And let Ukraine go entirely? Make a choice?

[gehringer_2]

  On 2/8/2022 at 11:44 AM, romad1 said:

Macron!  Sadly, I don't think this is actually going to occur. 

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didn't happen to specify how many decades the exercise may take did they?

[mtutiger]

  On 2/8/2022 at 1:43 PM, gehringer_2 said:

didn't happen to specify how many decades the exercise may take did they?

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Or whether they would be withdrawing from Belarus and into Ukraine?

[Jim Cowan]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:50 AM, chasfh said:

I’m starting to wonder what the US would do if Xi goes for Taiwan at the same time Putin goes for Ukraine. Those two have become pretty good friends lately.

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Fight for neither.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

  On 2/8/2022 at 11:44 AM, romad1 said:

Macron!  Sadly, I don't think this is actually going to occur. 

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Are we at the Neville Chamberlin "Hitler said he won't invade Poland and I trust him" stage yet with Putin and Ukraine or are we beyond that?

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:42 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Are we at the Neville Chamberlin "Hitler said he won't invade Poland and I trust him" stage yet with Putin and Ukraine or are we beyond that?

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I think a lot of diplomacy is performative.   We know one thing.  Vladdie wants to destroy a democratic Ukraine.   He may have calculated that this won't work this time.  He may think he needs to do more elite capture like he did with Orban in Hungary, Trump and Tucker (et.al.,)  in the United States and certain UK pols.   

But, this could still work.  He could get pols bending over to avoid bloodshed.  Ben and Jerry's (!) for example is tweeting that Biden is a warmonger for sending a pittance of troops to Eastern Europe.  

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:45 PM, romad1 said:

I think a lot of diplomacy is performative.   We know one thing.  Vladdie wants to destroy a democratic Ukraine.   He may have calculated that this won't work this time.  He may think he needs to do more elite capture like he did with Orban in Hungary, Trump and Tucker (et.al.,)  in the United States and certain UK pols.   

But, this could still work.  He could get pols bending over to avoid bloodshed.  Ben and Jerry's (!) for example is tweeting that Biden is a warmonger for sending a pittance of troops to Eastern Europe.  

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and of course,  he may just want to fuck shit up and invade. 

[romad1]

There is a scene in All Quiet on the Western Front --  the 1930s version, not the TV version with John Boy Walton and Earnest Borgnine which is quite good in its own right -- where they have a prolonged discussion about why the Kaiser needs a war.  And they decide that he needs a war because he has everything else in Germany.   

[chasfh]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:32 PM, Jim Cowan said:

Fight for neither.

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That's what they're hoping for.

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:53 PM, chasfh said:

That's what they're hoping for.

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The GOP right now is what happens when you don't have collective security based on norms of behavior.   The bully dominates the individually weaker members. 

[chasfh]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:45 PM, romad1 said:

and of course,  he may just want to fuck shit up and invade. 

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One advantage Putin may have is that Russia, as both itself and as the Soviet Union, has a well-established playbook on how to roll into a another country or a region, subjugate the population, and take over rule. They may even have it down to a sort of science. One thing we can hope for is that free Ukrainians throw enough shit at them to bog them down a la Afghanistan, at least for a while.

The wild card in this scenario is that one of every six people in Ukraine is Russian, as well as a yet-to-be-determined number of sympathetic Ukrainians acting as quislings to ingratiate themselves to their first cousin Russians, under the assumption of inevitability. Who knows how that part of it plays out.

[chasfh]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:56 PM, romad1 said:

The GOP right now is what happens when you don't have collective security based on norms of behavior.   The bully dominates the individually weaker members. 

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I believe this is the main reason Putin is moving at all now.

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 3:02 PM, chasfh said:

One advantage Putin may have is that Russia, as both itself and as the Soviet Union, has a well-established playbook on how to roll into a another country or a region, subjugate the population, and take over rule. They may even have it down to a sort of science. One thing we can hope for is that free Ukrainians throw enough shit at them to bog them down a la Afghanistan, at least for a while.

The wild card in this scenario is that one of every six people in Ukraine is Russian, as well as a yet-to-be-determined number of sympathetic Ukrainians acting as quislings to ingratiate themselves to their first cousin Russians, under the assumption of inevitability. Who knows how that part of it plays out.

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All true.  I would say that the best way to deal with the quislings is to string them up but that is exactly what Putin wants to create the conditions for his invasion to help the "Sudeten Russians"

[romad1]

Many like these guys are in the Baltics as well

 

[gehringer_2]

  On 2/8/2022 at 3:02 PM, chasfh said:

 

The wild card in this scenario is that one of every six people in Ukraine is Russian, as well as a yet-to-be-determined number of sympathetic

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This is pretty important. We have been down the path before where a western leaning gov and media have told us “our population is with us” only to find out that was”I guess not so much”

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 4:46 PM, gehringer_2 said:

This is pretty important. We have been down the path before where a western leaning gov and media have told us “our population is with us” only to find out that was”I guess not so much”

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Its not as bad as Iraq or Afghanistan was.  There will be a core of Ukrainian resistance like there was in immediate post WWII period until well into the 1950s until they were finally snuffed out by the Red Army and the KGB. 

[romad1]

  On 2/8/2022 at 5:02 PM, romad1 said:

Its not as bad as Iraq or Afghanistan was.  There will be a core of Ukrainian resistance like there was in immediate post WWII period until well into the 1950s until they were finally snuffed out by the Red Army and the KGB. 

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Putin will be very happy to get everyone in Ukraine registered and cross-tabulated using his Chinese friend's tools for data management

[Jim Cowan]

  On 2/8/2022 at 2:53 PM, chasfh said:

That's what they're hoping for.

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Slam dunk.

[1984Echoes]

  On 2/8/2022 at 3:02 PM, chasfh said:

... The wild card in this scenario is that one of every six people in Ukraine is Russian, as well as a yet-to-be-determined number of sympathetic Ukrainians acting as quislings to ingratiate themselves to their first cousin Russians, under the assumption of inevitability. Who knows how that part of it plays out.

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That is primarily in Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk provinces (southeast, Russia calls it the "Donbass"); which, Russia already has.

I mean, it's also anywhere East of the Dnieper River... except...

Since Putin stole Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk... even Russian speaking or Russian leaning Ukrainians (east of the Dnieper) are enraged at his moves and his current threats. You might get some saboteurs from the area... but the overwhelming attitude is intensely anti-Putin at the moment, even there.

I mean, we'll see what happens when the tanks start rolling in...

[romad1]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

Ukraine is the nerve center of the Alt Right. Many former U.S. soldiers and Marines moved there and train recruits from around the world under Oleh Tyahnybok's ultranationalist Svoboda. They pay americans well, I know of a few Vet's who moved there recently.

[romad1]

  On 2/9/2022 at 1:34 PM, Tigeraholic1 said:

Ukraine is the nerve center of the Alt Right. Many former U.S. soldiers and Marines moved there and train recruits from around the world under Oleh Tyahnybok's ultranationalist Svoboda. They pay americans well, I know of a few Vet's who moved there recently.

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You see that in the Youtube algorithm where the black rifle coffee company guys are boosting Ukraine's potential fight against Russia.  This is a real disconnect between the "Russia is the only real Christian country" nonsense spewers and these dudes.  Smart strategy is to keep a leash on them to avoid them being provoked into the sort of "nazi" atrocity that Putin wants to launch his invasion.