Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[1984Echoes]

53 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Part of the Putin playbook. Their state media has been running this falsehood for several days. Some things never change.

Lugansk and Donetsk separatists starting shelling Ukraine with artillery last night. And they are trying to blame it on the Ukrainians. This is illegal per the Minsk agreements.

But Russia is going to use this as an excuse to invade Ukraine.

It's starting.

[buddha]

58 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

See what I mean?

Putin is adamant.

And not just with Ukraine. 

He wants all US Forces and NATO out of Warsaw Pact countries so he can reinstitute the power of the Soviet Union, including controlling former WP countries. He has put it into writing:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tensions-between-u-russia-just-175129111.html

Go F yourself Putin.

Based on the response he has given: I mobilize NATO forces to Poland, Germany, and Rumania. Numbering in the 100's of thousands. I mobilize tank and artillery divisions. I mobilize Air Force units and place a naval blockade of the Bosporus Straits. 

We either defend NATO territory against this fascist scumbag... or we fail.

you want to go to war with a nuclear powered russia over a country that has zero significance to the united states?  

come on.  that is not going to happen.

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

you want to go to war with a nuclear powered russia over a country that has zero significance to the united states?  

come on.  that is not going to happen.

You want Putin to put you to bed tonight.  That’s just as ridiculous as what you wrote.

[buddha]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

You want Putin to put you to bed tonight.  That’s just as ridiculous as what you wrote.

no its not.

if russia put missiles in mexico and venezuela and cuba, how would you react?

the ukraine is nothing to us.  sorry to let you in on the uncomfortable truth.  they need to bargain this in a way that prevents a russian invasion and allows russia to save face.  that's what needs to be done.

america is not fighting russia over the ukraine, just like it didnt fight them over georgia.

[Jim Cowan]

The United States is not going to enter an armed conflict just because a friend or ally has been invaded.  There is no historical precedent for it.

[buddha]

42 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

The United States is not going to enter an armed conflict just because a friend or ally has been invaded.  There is no historical precedent for it.

ukraine is not an ally.  its a former soviet republic that is much more important to russia than us.  same with georgia.  same with belarus.

if we had expanded nato to include them (which would have been foolish) or put them in the EU, things would have been different.  but we didnt (rightfully) and now we are where we are.

[buddha]

did we invade russia when they annexed the crimea?  nope.  and were not going to do it now either.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

you want to go to war with a nuclear powered russia over a country that has zero significance to the united states?  

come on.  that is not going to happen.

I said nothing about war. I said make a full commitment to the NATO nations surrounding Ukraine, placing enough troops there to show Putin that we're not fucking around. 6,000 troops in those countries is nothing. And it does NOT have to be an All-American force. Mobilize France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Britain, and the U.S and other NATO countries and put serious NATO forces in the countries I specified. Otherwise, Putin believes we are not serious and will take as much advantage as he can. He wants the Soviet Union back (in power and in coercive power), he has said so. 

Here: I'll state two other non-war measures: (1) Yank Russia out of SWIFT, now. (2) Yank Russia off of the U.N. Security Council, now. They are not nor have ever been a component of world peace. Let them apply for reinstatement. But kick them out. Even if that has to go through heavy U.N. red tape and probably has 0% chance of happening. Make the move.

And I realize that those actions could actually LEAD to a war with Russia. But they won't. Russia will back down.

PS: I'm not afraid of war with Russia, BTW.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

... america is not fighting russia over the ukraine, just like it didnt fight them over georgia.

Of course we're not going to fight Russia over Ukraine.

But RIGHT NEXT to Ukraine (or Russia) is Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. All of them NATO countries. And we HAVE committed to defending those countries as part of NATO. As has Britain, France, Germany, and every other NATO country.

And Putin is ordering us OUT of those countries (except Germany) so he can do as he wishes. Which is: the same as he wants to do with Ukraine: take them over militarily.

I have some immortal words for that (well, just one): "NUTS!"

[1984Echoes]

12 minutes ago, buddha said:

did we invade russia when they annexed the crimea?  nope.  and were not going to do it now either.

Who said anything about invading Russia?

Now you're just reaching...

[buddha]

16 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Of course we're not going to fight Russia over Ukraine.

But RIGHT NEXT to Ukraine (or Russia) is Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. All of them NATO countries. And we HAVE committed to defending those countries as part of NATO. As has Britain, France, Germany, and every other NATO country.

And Putin is ordering us OUT of those countries (except Germany) so he can do as he wishes. Which is: the same as he wants to do with Ukraine: take them over militarily.

I have some immortal words for that (well, just one): "NUTS!"

well duh.  we will protect our nato allies.

we will not protect ukraine.

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, buddha said:

did we invade russia when they annexed the crimea?  nope.  and were not going to do it now either.

Of course nobody did much of anything beside something military when Russia went into Crimea, possibly for better reasons than can be mustered if everyone does nothing should they go into Ukraine.

in the end it will still depend on the Ukrainians. If they have a taste to resist there will lots of things the west can do without fighting Russia themselves/ourselves. OTOH, if they see the Russians as just one more episode in a long history they are already resigned to, then not so much. In the end that is the population’s choice.  

Edited February 17, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

57 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Of course nobody did much of anything beside something military when Russia went into Crimea, possibly for better reasons than can be mustered if everyone does nothing should they go into Ukraine.

in the end it will still depend on the Ukrainians. If they have a taste to resist there will lots of things the west can do without fighting Russia themselves/ourselves. OTOH, if they see the Russians as just one more episode in a long history they are already resigned to, then not so much. In the end that is the population’s choice.  

I recommend the podcast The Daily from Feb 15 .  I don’t know what to expect about Ukraine’s fighting spirit.   It would seem from that (it’s NYT reporter going around to the Ukrainian equivalent of Ohio diners) but very interesting nonetheless.

[romad1]

3 hours ago, buddha said:

no its not.

if russia put missiles in mexico and venezuela and cuba, how would you react?

the ukraine is nothing to us.  sorry to let you in on the uncomfortable truth.  they need to bargain this in a way that prevents a russian invasion and allows russia to save face.  that's what needs to be done.

america is not fighting russia over the ukraine, just like it didnt fight them over georgia.

Your tell was referring to Ukraine as The Ukraine.   Ok. 

[romad1]

We have given Ukraine a ton of weapons.  We expect they can put up a fight like they did in 2014 when a bunch of militias fought off the rogues gallery that Putin sent in.   However, the Russian Air Force and all those ballistic missiles and arty will kill a lot of people.   I will not go out on any limb and predict how this will go.  Putin should know but we have plenty of evidence that he has been self-deluding in this incident that wars have a way of creating their own chaos.   For example, what happens if Russians expand the war into NATO territory. 

[buddha]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Your tell was referring to Ukraine as The Ukraine.   Ok. 

my tell?

 

your tell is thinking every year is 1938.

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

my tell?

 

your tell is thinking every year is 1938.

You missed 1991

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, buddha said:

well duh.  we will protect our nato allies.

we will not protect ukraine.

Which is EXACTLY what I said.

TWICE.

And your TAKE from that is that I am suggesting we go to war with Russia.

You are "in the wrong".

Edited February 18, 2022 by 1984Echoes

[romad1]

Apparently, Canada has a huge Ukrainian diaspora.  I have just heard from my brother who lives in Rochester, NY that they call them Yookies.  

[romad1]

I have some very pessimistic colleagues where I work about all this.  Its hard not to be affected by that.  I just don't know how this will play out.   The thing that strikes me though is that people are using the template of Kabul for Kiev.  I don't think that applies.  In Ukraine we apparently have a place with a real sense of nationhood.  Just because they have terrible corruption problems doesn't mean there are not people who will fight which they definitely did and continue to do since 2014.  Afghanistan was tribes, various regions and the city of Kabul.  A place where empires go to die.  It also had the Russians, Chinese and Pakistanis plus the gulf billionaires funding an insurrection against the US and NATO.   Now the shoe can be on the other foot.  I'm all for that.  Fuck Vladdie with a duck.  Fuck his troops.  Fuck his oligarchs and fuck anyone who takes his coin to be on RT or run for office. 

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I have some very pessimistic colleagues where I work about all this.  Its hard not to be affected by that.  I just don't know how this will play out.   The thing that strikes me though is that people are using the template of Kabul for Kiev.  I don't think that applies.  In Ukraine we apparently have a place with a real sense of nationhood.  Just because they have terrible corruption problems doesn't mean there are not people who will fight which they definitely did and continue to do since 2014.  Afghanistan was tribes, various regions and the city of Kabul.  A place where empires go to die.  It also had the Russians, Chinese and Pakistanis plus the gulf billionaires funding an insurrection against the US and NATO.   Now the shoe can be on the other foot.  I'm all for that.  Fuck Vladdie with a duck.  Fuck his troops.  Fuck his oligarchs and fuck anyone who takes his coin to be on RT or run for office. 

I'd take the Kabul example exactly as the opposite. Enough of the Afghans refused to be pacified that neither the CCCP or the USA could make it work. We look at Kabul as having fallen because the Afghans didn't fight, but those were just "our" Afghans that declined to fight, the other side was most definitely Afghans that were fighting. 

If anything, what Ukraine lacks is a unifying ideology of resistance like Maoism or Islam that has some history of holding guerrilla movements together. Or another way to put is is whether Kyiv has reached a point of 1st worldliness where they would rather be politically dominated than physically reduced back to the middle ages by war. To be perfectly honest, that is not a black and white question. Putin and his oligarchy don't run a prison state (in the sense that no-one can get out) anymore like the CCCP. If you are politically disinterested you can be left alone,  send your kids to school, if they do well they can probably emigrate to the EU or North America. 

Edited February 18, 2022 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Which is EXACTLY what I said.

TWICE.

And your TAKE from that is that I am suggesting we go to war with Russia.

You are "in the wrong".

ok.  you need to relax a bit.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

I have some very pessimistic colleagues where I work about all this.  Its hard not to be affected by that.  I just don't know how this will play out.   The thing that strikes me though is that people are using the template of Kabul for Kiev.  I don't think that applies.  In Ukraine we apparently have a place with a real sense of nationhood.  Just because they have terrible corruption problems doesn't mean there are not people who will fight which they definitely did and continue to do since 2014.  Afghanistan was tribes, various regions and the city of Kabul.  A place where empires go to die.  It also had the Russians, Chinese and Pakistanis plus the gulf billionaires funding an insurrection against the US and NATO.   Now the shoe can be on the other foot.  I'm all for that.  Fuck Vladdie with a duck.  Fuck his troops.  Fuck his oligarchs and fuck anyone who takes his coin to be on RT or run for office. 

they have neither the ideology or the terrain to hold off the russians.  they also have a sizeable part of the population that is pro russian.  there is no comparison between them and the afghans.

and it doesnt matter, its not in the us's interests to fight the russians over this.  take a compromise.  move on the other things.

[mtutiger]

7 hours ago, buddha said:

they have neither the ideology or the terrain to hold off the russians.  they also have a sizeable part of the population that is pro russian.  there is no comparison between them and the afghans.

and it doesnt matter, its not in the us's interests to fight the russians over this.  take a compromise.  move on the other things.

They have a sizable part of the population that is pro-Russian, but it is smaller than it has ever been numbers-wise (at least based on a couple of polls recently showing feelings toward the west / interest in NATO membership at an all time high). Which makes sense when you consider how Russia's actions in the east have damaged the economy... 

Either way, I don't think anyone would dispute that we aren't going to war in Ukraine, or that Ukraine will not be extended NATO membership, but I see absolutely zero problem arming them and doing what we can to help fight off subjugation to the best of their abilities.

Edited February 18, 2022 by mtutiger

[romad1]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

They have a sizable part of the population that is pro-Russian, but it is smaller than it has ever been numbers-wise (at least based on a couple of polls recently showing feelings toward the west / interest in NATO membership at an all time high). Which makes sense when you consider how Russia's actions in the east have damaged the economy... 

Either way, I don't think anyone would dispute that we aren't going to war in Ukraine, or that Ukraine will not be extended NATO membership, but I see absolutely zero problem arming them and doing what we can to help fight off subjugation to the best of their abilities.

We can bleed Putin.  We can make him pay for 2016.  We can make the Trumpies cry.