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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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I admire them trying this.  They know that China is the bigger problem long term and having it behave according to International norms matters much more.

Meanwhile, China is MUCH worse and will be trying to navigate how to be total bastards to the Taiwanese population when the World is watching.   Its not the internal issue that the Uighers can seem like, when nobody has an idea of just how many people you are genociding. 

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4 hours ago, pfife said:

It must be liberating for them to not have to be concerned about making sense.  Conservative posters here do the same thing.  They don't care if they make sense.   They don't care if they contradict themselves.  They only care about owning libs and Dems.  And they consider owning the same as baselessly attacking.

Yes, and it is really frustrating in a situation like this where "owning the libs" starts to mean taking sides against the United States.

I'm not even saying that the Administration is above criticism (I think they've handled this well but criticism that is lodged in order to improve the response or correct whatever problems arise is welcome)... but when it goes beyond that and into spreading Russian propaganda about biolabs, you are abetting the enemy and are not being patriotic. Full stop.

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35 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I admire them trying this.  They know that China is the bigger problem long term and having it behave according to International norms matters much more.

Meanwhile, China is MUCH worse and will be trying to navigate how to be total bastards to the Taiwanese population when the World is watching.   Its not the internal issue that the Uighers can seem like, when nobody has an idea of just how many people you are genociding. 

I would have to imagine China has concerns about their relationships in Europe and how they are being impacted by this conflict.

Their response in general has been incoherent... on one hand amplifying a lot of the Russian propaganda on social media, on the other hand (AFAIK) not doing much in terms of physical or financial aid for Russia since the beginning of the invasion. Which probably reflects them trying to calibrate where to go from here.

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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

I dunno

seems risky

I'm on board with this.

I think it needs to be done.

A "Coalition of the Willing".

Declare War on Russia and it's partners (Byelorussia only at this point) with the goal ONLY of removing Russian military from Ukrainian territory (including the Donbass region but NOT Crimea, which would be a no-go for Russia.)

Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Norway, Japan, South Korea, Lithuania, Canada, Italy, Greece (maybe even Turkey if we could get them on board), the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Iceland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, etc...

The U.S. could back them up initially but would need Congressional approval to approve a State of War against Russia... but if the goal is only the removal of Russian forces from agreed-upon (by the "coalition of the willing") Ukrainian territory... I'm just going to guess but, if the rest of western civilization (as listed above) declares against Russia, Congress will also.

A concerted International effort to tell Putin/ Russia to "Back OFF".

I want it. And I want it now.

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11 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... not doing much in terms of physical or financial aid for Russia since the beginning of the invasion. Which probably reflects them trying to calibrate where to go from here.

They have financial exposure and reputational exposure (the EU could shut them out in response to any real China support of Russia)... which is less a calibration and more along the lines of extreme risk avoidance.

They have no compelling reason to expose themselves financially or otherwise to investments/purchases in a belligerent Russia. Hence: they are definitely limiting that exposure. Not 100%. Probably not even 25% (they need Russian oil just as much as the EU does...). But what ever they are able to.

The U.S. & EU wants them to do more of course...

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I would have to imagine China has concerns about their relationships in Europe and how they are being impacted by this conflict.

Their response in general has been incoherent... on one hand amplifying a lot of the Russian propaganda on social media, on the other hand (AFAIK) not doing much in terms of physical or financial aid for Russia since the beginning of the invasion. Which probably reflects them trying to calibrate where to go from here.

and this piece showed up today in NYT today by one Wnag Hulyao - who runs a 'non-governmental' think tank in Beijing (yeah - I know that's kind of an oxy-moron in today's China, but I'm just the messenger here.....). Basically making the case why this war is not really such a good thing for China. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/opinion/china-russia-ukraine.html

Quote

The United States and its allies might be reluctant to have China play any role in this crisis, given that they view Beijing as a strategic rival. That’s foolish and shortsighted; the conflict’s immediate dangers far outweigh any competitive considerations. Ukraine itself sees the potential of Chinese-led conflict resolution.

So far, China has called for dialogue and says it supports humanitarian aid efforts. But Beijing’s interests in more proactive involvement are growing by the day.

China has a significant economic interest in a quick resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war.....

....

It is not in Beijing’s interests to rely solely on an anti-Western alliance with Moscow. Russia may possess a mighty military, but its economy is in long-term structural decline, with a G.D.P. not much larger than that of Spain. For all the talk of ties with Moscow, it is worth remembering that China’s economic interests with Russia are dwarfed by those it shares with the West. In 2021, trade between China and Russia may have jumped by 36 percent compared to the prior year, to $147 billion — but that’s still less than a tenth of the combined trade with the United States ($657 billion) and European Union ($828 billion).

Even if China isn’t joining in the sanctions, it is possible that Chinese businesses and banks will decrease involvement with Russia to avoid a backlash in other, more important markets. As Russia becomes isolated from the world economy, China will not want to shoulder Russia’s economic burden alone.....

....There are also political reasons China wants this conflict to end in a way that is appealing to all involved. The longer the war lasts, the more it will reinvigorate the Western alliance around the idea of a values-based confrontation between East and West, bringing the United States and the European Union into even closer alignment while driving military budgets up around the globe. That is not good for China, which would prefer to maintain lucrative economic ties with the West and focus its resources on domestic development.

 

Edited by gehringer_2
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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

another aspect of this that even with the most supportive position by Chinia, the logistics are very bad. There are only limited road and rail connections from China to Russia by land, and at this point arms shipments by sea could face Western interventions.

Edited by gehringer_2
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43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

another aspect of this that even with the most supportive position by Chinia, the logistics are very bad. There are only limited road and rail connections from China to Russia by land, and at this point arms shipments by sea could face Western interventions.

They have rail connections as part of the belt and road initiative via Kazhakstan.  BRI also says they will have direct rail connections via Siberia. 

https://merics.org/en/tracker/mapping-belt-and-road-initiative-where-we-stand  

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There is a lot of truth with this

When this started analysts were fighting their instincts to be giddy to be soberly pessimistic because in part, they were fighting the fall of Kabul over again. 

I believe I made the caveat multiple times "well, it took us 20 days to get to Baghdad".

I dunno though.  Saddam had his tactical successes against us on the road up but didn't prepare Kyiv-like urban fortresses in Baghdad.

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2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

They have financial exposure and reputational exposure (the EU could shut them out in response to any real China support of Russia)... which is less a calibration and more along the lines of extreme risk avoidance.

They have no compelling reason to expose themselves financially or otherwise to investments/purchases in a belligerent Russia. Hence: they are definitely limiting that exposure. Not 100%. Probably not even 25% (they need Russian oil just as much as the EU does...). But what ever they are able to.

The U.S. & EU wants them to do more of course...

China's current relationship with Russia:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-ukraine-invasion-bad-news-160000610.html

 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

another aspect of this that even with the most supportive position by Chinia, the logistics are very bad. There are only limited road and rail connections from China to Russia by land, and at this point arms shipments by sea could face Western interventions.

Any weapons going from China to Russia will enrage the EU and cause an immediate drop in trade relations, not to mention most likely sanctions directly aimed at China.

I believe China is way too smart to do something stupid like that.

I mean... we'll see.

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2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Any weapons going from China to Russia will enrage the EU and cause an immediate drop in trade relations, not to mention most likely sanctions directly aimed at China.

I believe China is way too smart to do something stupid like that.

I mean... we'll see.

You would think China would stay out of it.  Their failure to call out Russia's actions and war crimes is bad enough.  If China supplies Russia we will be that much closer to WWIII.  I've said before that it seems that Xi is the only person that Putin will listen to.  We should be convincing Xi to talk some sense into his Russian buddy.

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35 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The CEO of my company, when talking about Ukraine, said he wished our government would step up and lead a little more. This is the same company who donates almost exclusively to Republicans and the very same Republicans who let Trump off the hook for trying to deny military aid to Ukraine. 

It must be so, so irritating to have a CEO who makes such overtly political statements, whether Democratic or Republican.

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