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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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On 4/17/2022 at 10:43 PM, romad1 said:

It would be good if she loses by enough that she and Putin can't put her forward again

 

Marine Le Pen is allegedly crook and a far right grifter? Where have I seen this story before? Looks like Le Pen may spend some time in the Pen if these allegations are true.

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8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

basically he's arguing for a full mobilization in Russia.I would think that if Putin thought that his propaganda machine could have built the support for that he would already have done it.

As we all know, Ukraine has already got full mobilization. 

Edited by romad1
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46 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

This is just staggering if true, considering Russia’s size. 

figure the math. Russia's population is 3.5X Ukraine. The Russians require 1 yr of military service. Ukraine is basically on a full mobilization basis so you are getting participation from the whole age range of maybe 17-40. Russia's one year conscript numbers plus the numbers of their 'professional' troops actually can't match that without the kind of draft/mobilization that Girkin is talking about. 

If the West supplies sufficient technology to counter Russian air and missile advantage, it's realistic to predict we get more of what we have gotten to far -- the Russians can kill a lot of civilians but will struggle to achieve strategic objectives. And of course ironically, as the fighting moves east more of those civilian casualties will be Russian speakers.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

figure the math. Russia's population is 3.5X Ukraine. The Russians require 1 yr of military service. Ukraine is basically on a full mobilization basis so you are getting participation from the whole age range of maybe 17-40. Russia's one year conscript numbers plus the numbers of their 'professional' troops actually can't match that without the kind of draft/mobilization that Girkin is talking about. 

If the West supplies sufficient technology to counter Russian air and missile advantage, it's realistic to predict we get more of what we have gotten to far -- the Russians can kill a lot of civilians but will struggle to achieve strategic objectives. And of course ironically, as the fighting moves east more of those civilian casualties will be Russian speakers.

Modern warfare is a real mix.  You can't train troops on the complex systems overnight.  Giving a gun or an APC to a newbie is one thing.  Teaching a small unit how to update its crypto every day, teaching the young officers how to call-for-fire or air support is harder.   The Russians don't do those things apparently because they don't trust young officers to do those things.  

This is one of those organizational DNA things.  The British and American armies have strong resilient NCO cadres which have saved their asses in fights all over the globe.  We shared that with the Ukrainians and they have benefited a lot from that.   The Russians do not have this NCO class and its made them rigid and inflexible.

Edited by romad1
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14 hours ago, romad1 said:

Modern warfare is a real mix.  You can't train troops on the complex systems overnight.  Giving a gun or an APC to a newbie is one thing.  Teaching a small unit how to update its crypto every day, teaching the young officers how to call-for-fire or air support is harder.   The Russians don't do those things apparently because they don't trust young officers to do those things.  

This is one of those organizational DNA things.  The British and American armies have strong resilient NCO cadres which have saved their asses in fights all over the globe.  We shared that with the Ukrainians and they have benefited a lot from that.   The Russians do not have this NCO class and its made them rigid and inflexible.

Related:

 

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23 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

With Putin you can count on that being some kind of lie, the only question is from which direction.

I don't know, I'm inclined to take Putin's word for this one. Even a stopped clock tells the truth twice a day.

Plus, it's not as though Putin is saying they're pulling out and giving the Ukrainians a break. Blockading them to starve them out is still an aggressive act of war. The trick is going to be making the blockade stand strong against what I assume will be Ukrainian bombardment of their positions.

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