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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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I see some discussion now as to whether Putin will be be forced to increase 'mobilization' of the Russian population. But really, it's already too late for that. He can't train new conscripts on any weapons systems that matter fast enough to be any help before the inevitable Ukrainian counter offensive in the East starts. 

I think you can throw all the data about armed forces metrics out the window in this conflict. There are two factors that override all the rest: the morale differential between the two armies, and the fact that the maneuver of the Russian army is being driven by political imperatives laid down by a delusional dictator in place of any reality based strategic thought. 

Edited by gehringer_2
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18 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I’ve got reasons to believe this

Hmmm. not bad news but the story this links to appears to be a month old.

Quote

Russian commander ‘killed himself after learning 90% of his tanks were useless’
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Metro Web Reporter
Monday 28 Mar 2022 9:43 am
 

 

Edited by gehringer_2
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49 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Another one of those 'big if true' things.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10770541/Putin-cancer-operation-near-future-hand-power-hardline-ex-KGB-chief.html

If there has been talks about going against Putin, they might see this as an oppurtunity.

Well, under normal circumstances, if Putin assumes room temperature, you would assume Patrushev would not have enough of a consolidated power base of his own and the whole thing would quickly collapse. But sometimes not -- Can you imagine if you end up with another Chavez/Maduro outcome and the new guy actually is worlds worse than the guy you didn't think it could be any worse than?

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17 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The story is that we know that Russian logistics are bad...but the full extent is bizonkers.

I've read and watched so many good pieces on Russia recently I've lost track but one description really sticks in my head - which was of Russia as a multi-tiered kleptocracy, where power was all about who you were allowed/expected to steal from, the limit on your power being basically the limit to the geography of where you could steal, and the quickest way to get in trouble is to accidentally steal from someone more privileged than yourself. Putin sits at the the top demanding his cut from everybody. Sort of a mafia'd up version of an ancient tribute system but all done via the normalization of theft/diversion rather than sending wagons of gold and virgins to the proconsul. 

And the result of course, is that everything ends up hollow, everywhere. Eaten up from the inside out.

Edited by gehringer_2
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9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I've read and watched so many good pieces on Russia recently I've lost track but one description really sticks in my head - which was of Russia as a multi-tiered kleptocracy, where power was all about who you were allowed/expected to steal from, the limit on your power being basically the limit to the geography of where you could steal, and the quickest way to get in trouble is to accidentally steal from someone more privileged than yourself. Putin sits at the the top demanding his cut from everybody. Sort of a mafia'd up version of an ancient tribute system but all done via the normalization of theft/diversion rather than sending wagons of gold and virgins to the proconsul. 

And the result of course, is that everything ends up hollow, everywhere. Eaten up from the inside out.

The Economist editorial from the Crimean war of the 1850s is as true today as it was then.

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1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

Do those nuclear missiles even work anymore, or has all of the maintenance budget been stolen every year for the past 30 years?

during the late 1990s and early 2000s we were very worried that their early warning satellite network was broken so much that they wouldn't be able to discern civilian launches (which we provide ample warning of) and potential other launches of new-fangled weapons we were testing.   We decided to warn, warn, warn because we didn't want to risk their broken crap causing a nuclear war. 

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I hadn't seen the Putin video with the hand tremors. That did not look good. 

If he has Parkinson's, and he is so vain he wants to appear in public with zero tremor to deny it, then he may be overdosing, which from close family experience I can tell you will absolutely cause mental impairment, daylight hallucination, fear and confusion episodes, etc.

The rest of the gripping and twitching looks as much to me like episodes of intense pain, which if it's his back isn't necessarily anything immediately threatening, other than maybe to opiate addiction. But certainly a tumor/growth anywhere along the spine would be an equivalent to prolapsed discs or spinal stenosis as a source of that kind of pain.

Another scenario that sort of fits is some kind of intestinal condition. Maybe COVID wasn't the only reason he was keeping strangers far away from him. You wouldn't want reports running through the grapevine that dear leader stank.

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