smr-nj Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 minute ago, romad1 said: just the most Russian thing ever What is a “Chinese Baofeng UV-5R”, Romad? (I have no clue). ty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, smr-nj said: What is a “Chinese Baofeng UV-5R”, Romad? (I have no clue). ty I believe it's an off-the-shelf consumer walkie-talkie Edited September 9, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Ah, ok… I was thinking in that realm, I should have just googled it. 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 hour ago, romad1 said: just the most Russian thing ever It probably runs on a gas/oil mixture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said: It probably runs on a gas/oil mixture. 3 hours ago, smr-nj said: Ah, ok… I was thinking in that realm, I should have just googled it. 🙂 Yeah, just a stupid walkie they got off the shelf. Putting the dark green plastic case on it with a STICKER! for the screen is just about as potemkin village a thing you can get. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) so just to be perfectly crystal clear, I'm taking the news coming from Ukraine as unalloyed good news. I'm not selling any "don't poke the bear too hard" cards. That said, it seems that if the Ukrainian offensive consolidates the gains it is currently promising to make, it *has* to puncture the balloon of unreality Putin has inflated around himself - doesn't it? I mean, we are coming down to a real test of George Orwell's ultimate vision. Someone tweeted (so consider the source at your own risk) that some brave souls in St. Petersburg (the most European of all Russian cities) were calling for Putin's removal. Edited September 9, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: ... Someone tweeted (so consider the source at your own risk) that some brave souls in St. Petersburg (the most European of all Russian cities) were calling for Putin's removal. That was yesterday's news. St. Petersburg politicians asked members of the Duma to charge Putin with treason. They've been arrested. TBC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: That was yesterday's news. St. Petersburg politicians asked members of the Duma to charge Putin with treason. They've been arrested. TBC... didn't think it would take long for that shoe to drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: ... That said, it seems that if the Ukrainian offensive consolidates the gains it is currently promising to make, it *has* to puncture the balloon of unreality Putin has inflated around himself - doesn't it? I mean, we are coming down to a real test of George Orwell's ultimate vision... They're all in a panic right now in Russia... I believe including Putin; although he will never (I should say: "never say never" but, at least at this point) show it. This storyline will be interesting to follow. Also... if it gets bad enough... if Putin actually does get removed from power, as you alluded to in the other storyline... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 the worst is yet to come from Putin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) I was so dead set on retaking Kherson that I was not paying attention to the eastern front. So that's why they were talking up up retaking Kherson so prolifically and for an extended period of time?! To drain Russian forces from the east, and sent to the south/ Kherson Oblast. Their (Ukraine's) counteroffensive in the east took me by surprise as well... Like I said, I had my mind set on Kherson. But they've already taken Balakliya and are about 9 miles outside of Kupiansk, a major railway hub for resupplying Russian forces. If Ukraine retakes that, Russia (resupply lines) are severely hampered, and Izyum will be next, followed by a major pushback in Lugansk Oblast which Russia struggled terribly to take over... Which means Putin's 2nd (or was it 3rd?) stated reason for invading Ukraine ALSO flops. He's GOTTA be feeling some heat at this point in time...! Edited September 9, 2022 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: the worst is yet to come from Putin The only thing worse than what he has already done is... To use their nukes. We'll see if he goes that far... or if he backs off. My money is that he starts looking for a way out of this mess. He is completely shutting off the EU from Russian oil/ gas/ coal as a way to try and strong-arm the result that he wants. (A) I don't believe the EU will buckle under the pressure. (B) I think Ukraine's successful counteroffensive increases the pressure/ shortens the timeline significantly. (C) I don't believe he will act worse. I don't think he'll go that far. He's a gangster/ violent fascist willing to use genocide/ kidnapping/ etc... to get what he wants... But I firmly believe he does not go nuclear. I firmly believe he will start looking for a way out. He wants to keep Crimea, no matter what. That means negotiating for peace, and giving up the rest of Ukraine territory in return for keeping Crimea, and finding a cooperative agreement concerning Crimea (Russian access/ water supply from Kherson) rather than the current adversarial situation; which is better than losing everything. He can spin a cooperative agreement on a Russian held Crimea as some sort of win. Good luck with that, but that I believe is what he will soon be forced into... Just my 2 cents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 My take is that the "mad bomber nixon" thing might be in his mind. He hasn't mobilized his country for this war yet because he knows that would come at an extreme political cost. He's still calculating things with that in mind. But, he's terrible. If more terrible things can happen he will do them. He might be able to get Matt Gaetz and MTG and their ilk back in power if he just keeps going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: But I firmly believe he does not go nuclear. I don't believe the people around him would let him when it's a war of choice and not an existential threat - because the Generals would have to know, even if Putin doesn't, that if Russia does that in the service of pure war of aggression/expansion, they *will* face retaliation in kind. Edited September 9, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I don't believe the people around him would let him when it's a war of choice and not an existential threat - because the Generals would have to know, even if Putin doesn't, that if Russia does that in the service of pure war of aggression/expansion, they *will* face retaliation in kind. remember that his MOD is a complete political hack who collects tree stumps. That is not the sort of NPC character sheet that lends itself to noble protest of the boss' extreme overreaches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 …. And that makes all this extra scary, because there probably aren’t “cooler heads” to prevail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, romad1 said: My take is that the "mad bomber nixon" thing might be in his mind. He hasn't mobilized his country for this war yet because he knows that would come at an extreme political cost. He's still calculating things with that in mind. But, he's terrible. If more terrible things can happen he will do them. He might be able to get Matt Gaetz and MTG and their ilk back in power if he just keeps going. It's a weird calculus. The war was fundamentally a political tool to maintain his domestic standing - so he has to maintain the fantasy that it remains cost free - at least to the Great Russian population. Ukraine has succeeded in making it very difficult for him to win the war without imposing more of exactly the kind of hardship in Russia that the was was supposed to distract from. OTOH, to lose the was removes the distraction from the level of hardship that he had to distract from in the 1st place. It would be sooo much more convenient if someone in the inner circle prepped a bullet with Vladdy's name on it. That seems medieval in 'modern' Europe, but since Putin has proven himself a medievalist in spades it would be that much more appropriate. Edited September 9, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: ... The war was fundamentally a political tool to maintain his domestic standing ... I think this is incorrect. This war is 100% about Putin's historical grievance. The Soviet Union lost its global standing/ prestige/ power/ influence when it fell apart. He wants it back. That's it. Domestic standing is just a side effect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 And he's willing to use inhumane violence to achieve his Peter the Great ambitions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I think this is incorrect. This war is 100% about Putin's historical grievance. The Soviet Union lost its global standing/ prestige/ power/ influence when it fell apart. He wants it back. That's it.uDomestic standing is just a side effect. IDK, I think all the historical claptrap is how he sells that he's doing something wonderful for Mother Russia, which in turn is motivated by his need to maintain his standing. Probably in the end it doesn't matter which is the chicken and the egg. Does he play to being Peter the Great to buttress his standing with the henpecked Russian who is willing to live vicariously through the glory of the state that has denied life, liberty and the pursuit in his own life, or is it the fact that he fancies himself Peter the Great Pt Deux that enamors himself to those same Russians, I tend to see the two things as inextricably linked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Do those nukes even work anymore? Hasn't 100% of the maintenance budget been stolen every year for decades? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Foreign Affairs is paywalled, but they appear to have a 'one free article' exemption. I just used it to read a piece by Timothy Snyder that lays out the stakes in Ukraine against a backdrop of all of western history. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-war-democracy-nihilism-timothy-snyder?utm_medium=social Quote .....The classical notion of tyranny and the modern concept of fascism are both helpful in understanding the Putin regime, but neither is sufficient. ..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Good open source analysis thread of what appears to be happening If this is just information op against Russia (we have forces you don't even know where) then, good job. If they actually have these force well, good luck Russia: the doorkeepers of Zion are coming to kick your ass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 18 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: ... But they've already taken Balakliya and are about 9 miles outside of Kupiansk, a major railway hub for resupplying Russian forces. If Ukraine retakes that, Russia (resupply lines) are severely hampered, and Izyum will be next... They are either IN, or have taken Kupiansk... it's a little unclear; but as indicated, any Russian troops in Izium will soon have their retreat cut off, can be encircled, and captured: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-1-ukraine-troops-raise-090145556.html This looks like one of Ukraine's goals... to capture as many Russian POW's as they can. I wonder if Putin will trade the millions (1.5?) of Ukrainian women and children that he's kidnapped to get his "disgraced soldiers" back. This will be a Ukrainian demand in any negotiation. On Putin's decision...? 50/50 at best. Why would he trade women and children for disgraced Russian soldiers (his line of thinking I believe)? Which will be a destabilizing issue in Ukraine (that is what Putin's thinking will also be IMO so...) not better odds than 50/50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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