Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[ewsieg]

16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This is a big reason we differ.

I would suggest that the Ukrainians, who themselves are engaged in peace talks with Russia as we speak, understand the lay of the land just fine.... probably better than we do given their proximity to the fighting, frankly.

I still don't think we differ that much as if I had to pick one direction today, i'd pick the path Biden has forged and based on what i've seen from you, you appear to be on board with that too.  A change in policy to really push both sides into a peace agreement, even as Ukraine is winning the 'hearts and minds' of it's people at this time due to their successes, is just a competing, but secondary thought in my head.

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Archie said:

No they're not...mine are🤣

No, they're not. Mine are.

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I still don't think we differ that much as if I had to pick one direction today, i'd pick the path Biden has forged and based on what i've seen from you, you appear to be on board with that too.  A change in policy to really push both sides into a peace agreement, even as Ukraine is winning the 'hearts and minds' of it's people at this time due to their successes, is just a competing, but secondary thought in my head.

And that's fine, peace talks should be an aspiration in all of this. I just don't think the conditions exist as of right now for successful peace talks to actually happen, as it will require a level of trust that doesn't exist and will require the parties to sit down, negotiate in good faith, and be willing to make some sacrifices.

None of those conditions are being met.... obviously there is a process ongoing, but at the end of the day, the Ukrainians don't trust the Russians, the Russians have shown little evidence of acting in good faith since the start of this conflict and the Russians haven't come down much from their initial demands (essentially capitulation).

Would something that leads to less death and destruction be a good development? Obviously.... but one would have to weigh the odds of success (low) with the costs of failure (pretty high, considering the idea of breaching trust and roiling fellow NATO membership)

Edited March 24, 2022 by mtutiger

[romad1]

Its like a Marvel movie

and the Putin-aligned alt-Right is dying inside to see it. 

[Jim Cowan]

11 hours ago, ewsieg said:

... help them understand a 'win' in the morale category, might be a lot more death and destruction for Ukraine and its citizens.

Help them understand?  They understand that better than any of us ever will.

[oblong]

11 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Its like a Marvel movie

and the Putin-aligned alt-Right is dying inside to see it. 

I had the same thoughts. Are they wearing special pins?  

[pfife]

Trump woulda kept trying to dismantle those international organizations. 

[chasfh]

He still might ... 😢

[pfife]

I know, I'm worried man.  I think it will be horrific on so many fronts if he wins.

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

And that's fine, peace talks should be an aspiration in all of this. I just don't think the conditions exist as of right now for successful peace talks to actually happen, as it will require a level of trust that doesn't exist and will require the parties to sit down, negotiate in good faith, and be willing to make some sacrifices.

None of those conditions are being met.... obviously there is a process ongoing, but at the end of the day, the Ukrainians don't trust the Russians, the Russians have shown little evidence of acting in good faith since the start of this conflict and the Russians haven't come down much from their initial demands (essentially capitulation).

Would something that leads to less death and destruction be a good development? Obviously.... but one would have to weigh the odds of success (low) with the costs of failure (pretty high, considering the idea of breaching trust and roiling fellow NATO membership)

I agree with all of this.  All that said, one simple tool i've mentioned, giving Ukraine the ability to stop our sanctions against Russia, IMO, would certainly add a ton of pressure on Putin.  It certainly may not be enough.  This would still keep the ultimate decision on a cease-fire/peace with Russia with Ukraine.

[chasfh]

If there is a ray of optimism I am taking from all of this, it's that the actions of Autocrat #1 might horrify those right-wingers whose red hats are less well-dyed and steer them back toward the middle, even if it's back to Bush-style adventurism or Reagan-style let-them-eat-cakeism.

The crazies we will always have with us—it's just a matter of whether they make up 10% of the population, or 40% of the population. Hopefully the Ukraine misadventure will leave that number way closer to 10.

[Jim Cowan]

I don't know what people mean by "negotiations" or "peace talks".  Here is Ukraine's position:

(a) GTFO

(b) take all your derelict/destroyed equipment with you

(c) pay for the damage and compensate the families of the victims

I don't know why people think that the Ukrainians should soften their position on any of these or, especially, take advice from anyone else.

[ewsieg]

26 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Help them understand?  They understand that better than any of us ever will.

They have just been invaded, they certainly feel the aspect of war, hopefully better than any of us ever will, it doesn't mean they are reacting objectively or at least will in the future.  

They are literally fighting for the lives right now and seeing much more success than anyone believed.  

They are also fighting the 2nd best armed forces in the world, which made horrible tactical errors, but will learn from them.  Russia also can inflict a ton of damage on Ukraine from planes/missiles launched from their home and still have a lot of troops they can continue to send in.  Just because they are can claim a stalemate or some wins now, doesn't mean it'll be like that in a week, month, or year from now.  They need people to remind them of this part, not to talk them out of what they are doing with Russia, but to help them make an informed decision.

[Jim Cowan]

1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

 They need people to remind them of this part, not to talk them out of what they are doing with Russia, but to help them make an informed decision.

They don't need anyone to remind them of anything.  No one else is in any position to claim some sort of superior analysis.

[romad1]

27 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

They don't need anyone to remind them of anything.  No one else is in any position to claim some sort of superior analysis.

JC, you have shifted your tone on this a bit over the last month.  I recall you were particularly averse to the threat of wider war.  I think that's very sensible.   

My emotions are all over the map. I've gone like a metronome between "bomb them to the stone age" and "think of your 401k if there is a nuclear war" 

[romad1]

The second most powerful army in the World?  I heard a Ukrainian politician say that just now.   I saw it in text above.

We should not give these guys any more credit than they deserve.   Iraq had a large army and it fell on its ass when it faced a motivated professional force.   Russia, likewise falls on its ass when it faces a force trained, armed and professionalized by the West and fighting for its freedom.

[ewsieg]

3 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

They don't need anyone to remind them of anything.  No one else is in any position to claim some sort of superior analysis.

If someone was a friend/ally of mine, I'd hope in times when i'm under extreme duress, they'd be willing to say anything they feel they need to say to me.  It doesn't mean I have to listen to them.  And as I stated, one of the tools I mentioned we could possibly give them if we moved forward with that conflicting thought I had in the back of my head to push hard for a quick ending could be to give Ukraine the ability to pull the sanctions off of Russia and use that as a bargaining chip, again, their decision.

[romad1]

4 hours ago, romad1 said:

Its like a Marvel movie

and the Putin-aligned alt-Right is dying inside to see it. 

So, I was wondering if the Japanese, S.Koreans, Aussies and Indians were there.  That they would not be would be like the Eternals where everyone wonders why they didn't weigh in for the Thanos battle.

But, per this it appears that Japan was there

 

[romad1]

I guess the math is pretty hard here

South Africa is in the G20...with Argentina?!  Man, how do they rate that.  

[romad1]

Very terrifying

 

[chasfh]

I think we may have discussed this before, but do we think once any biological, chemical, or radiological effect wafts over into a NATO country from this war, that would be the bright red line Russia crosses that gets us involved on a shooting basis?

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think we may have discussed this before, but do we think once any biological, chemical, or radiological effect wafts over into a NATO country from this war, that would be the bright red line Russia crosses that gets us involved on a shooting basis?

I don't think there should be any wafting.

If Russia uses those weapons, they need to "Crimes Against Humanity" declare war against Russia.

I think they should do that right now, based on their current extensive list of war crimes. But I'm Teddy Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan, and I like using the Big Stick. Not everyone is willing to hold my position.

That's just my 2 cents.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think there should be any wafting.

If Russia uses those weapons, they need to "Crimes Against Humanity" declare war against Russia.

I think they should do that right now, based on their current extensive list of war crimes. But I'm Teddy Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan, and I like using the Big Stick. Not everyone is willing to hold my position.

That's just my 2 cents.

I know you've seen enough and want to start the bombing now. I'm not there just yet. But if radiation starts seeping across Europe, I could be talked into it.

[romad1]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think we may have discussed this before, but do we think once any biological, chemical, or radiological effect wafts over into a NATO country from this war, that would be the bright red line Russia crosses that gets us involved on a shooting basis?

US quietly planning potential responses in case Putin takes extreme step in Ukraine

[1984Echoes]

9 minutes ago, romad1 said:

US quietly planning potential responses in case Putin takes extreme step in Ukraine

They need to be forceful responses.

IMO.

Not sanctions.