mtutiger Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Gotta take anything on state media with a grain of salt, but hard not to raise eyebrows to a comment like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Maybe this is an ignorant question to ask, but would Xi allow Putin to use a tactical nuke and disrupt things in the global order that catastrophically? I ask about Xi because it seems fairly clear that China is Russia's biggest customer outside of Europe and the disruption that Putin using a tactical nuke would cause to world economics and energy markets, including China's, would almost certainly be colossal in size. That's a good question. In the 40+ years since Mao died China as body politic has been dedicated to stability both at home and abroad over all else. There were a society traumatized by War, Revolution and the then the chaos of Mao's internal Cultural Revolution. They are also always deathly afraid that even after the millennia of its existence, that the various ethnicities inside China are always only a step away from internal revolt against the legitimacy of the government in Bejing. If I believed that some kind of consensus leadership still controlled China, I don't think there is any way they would support Russian adventurism. The question is how far down the road to dictatorship China already is under Xi. The inner workings of Chinese succession have always been opaque, but for over 30 years they were calm and orderly and no-one appeared to have tried to do what Xi has done to consolidate himself into the whole state. To the degree that Xi has already been following Putin's footsteps, you have the same situation as in Russia - one man able to act against the rational interests of his country. Once you have that situation, analysis based on the rational interests of a country go out the window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Possibly better placed in the guns thread but... Trigger discipline is a thing. When you see it you note it. When you don't see it...run or get behind something strong enough to prevent the bullet from hitting you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: That's a good question. In the 40+ years since Mao died China as body politic has been dedicated to stability both at home and abroad over all else. There were a society traumatized by War, Revolution and the then the chaos of Mao's internal Cultural Revolution. They are also always deathly afraid that even after the millennia of its existence, that the various ethnicities inside China are always only a step away from internal revolt against the legitimacy of the government in Bejing. If I believed that some kind of consensus leadership still controlled China, I don't think there is any way they would support Russian adventurism. The question is how far down the road to dictatorship China already is under Xi. The inner workings of Chinese succession have always been opaque, but for over 30 years they were calm and orderly and no-one appeared to have tried to do what Xi has done to consolidate himself into the whole state. To the degree that Xi has already been following Putin's footsteps, you have the same situation as in Russia - one man able to act against the rational interests of his country. Once you have that situation, analysis based on the rational interests of a country go out the window. The one thing that has been interesting during this period has been the subtle break between the Shanghai economist/academic types and the government types in Beijing... Economically, very little seems to be gained throwing in with Russia... but Xi may be working on a different calculus than they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 One tweet about trigger control leads to another of Ukrainian propaganda brilliantly done. The VDV are the Russian airborne. They have been squandered by idiotic, arrogant leaders who are clearly terrified of the boss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, romad1 said: One tweet about trigger control leads to another of Ukrainian propaganda brilliantly done. The VDV are the Russian airborne. They have been squandered by idiotic, arrogant leaders who are clearly terrified of the boss. The number one comment my buddy had when he saw that VDV video was "What nutty ass fascistic society even has a video like that for Ukraine to mock?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 While the media is tripping over their feet over what Biden said, here is what PUTIN War Crimes continue to be done to Ukraine, including the use of phosphorus bombs against civilians and an additional kidnapping and deportation to Russia of Mariupol residents against their will: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-did-while-were-160412218.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 6 hours ago, mtutiger said: This kinda sums it up in terms of the media reponse... My guess is that Biden, by virtue of pursuing a policy that north of 75% of Americans agree with (ie. providing weapons of Ukraine but not engaging) gives them very little to work with, so moments where he says something provocative (which may or may not be a mistake depending on one's perspective) present an opportunity to create drama “Global uproar” drives more eyeballs to advertisers than “measured response” does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 6 hours ago, ewsieg said: To be fair, we're not that far removed from a president that not only said things off of the cuff, but administrative policy would sometimes change based on his response. It's been ingrained into the media's heads that 'words matter' and that's not a bad thing. I do think it's different here as Biden has shown consistency with his policies, despite any off of the cuff remarks. An off-the-cuff remark, and an unserious one at that, is exactly why we have Space Force today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 5 hours ago, Archie said: If Putin is not thinking rationally which is a good possibility, it could easily escalate in war. Kind along the lines of I'm going to get you before you get me approach. If Putin is not thinking rationally, which is a good possibility, it’s already going to escalate into war, regardless of who here says what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Gotta take anything on state media with a grain of salt, but hard not to raise eyebrows to a comment like that He’s totally right. Putin is getting his ass handed to him over Ukraine because the rest of the world is bankrupting his country of financial and intellectual capital, while he bankrupts himself of military capital. What makes anyone think that while, or after, getting clobbered in Ukraine, he could successfully wage war against anyone in NATO, let alone US? I don’t think there is any risk that Putin will wage war against US and win. That’s as close to impossible as anything could be. The biggest risk is once he realizes the jig is up and decides to push buttons in a bid to take the rest of the world out with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, chasfh said: He’s totally right. Putin is getting his ass handed to him over Ukraine because the rest of the world is bankrupting his country of financial and intellectual capital, while he bankrupts himself of military capital. What makes anyone think that while, or after, getting clobbered in Ukraine, he could successfully wage war against anyone in NATO, let alone US? I don’t think there is any risk that Putin will wage war against US and win. That’s as close to impossible as anything could be. The biggest risk is once he realizes the jig is up and decides to push buttons in a bid to take the rest of the world out with him. Which means he needs to be removed... Internally... By his Russian inner circle, or Palace Coup, or whatever name anyone wants to put on that. I hope Peskov and all of the rest of his inner circle... actually realize that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 11 hours ago, romad1 said: Just now had a chat with my 93yr old dad about Biden's speech. My dad and I are both Nevertrump and he has his lifetime GOP credentials in good order as do I. He loved the speech and thinks the WH should not be walking back the comments. I think that's my dad being annoyed at the young staffers trying to protect the elderly Biden who they see through their optic as whatever it is that the young misjudge the elderly as being. I told him that i thought it was what Nixon and Kissinger called the "Cowardice of the Eastern Establishment" I agree. Walking back the comments is the mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 11 hours ago, 1776 said: I’m not registered as a Biden critic. It’s more about what was said and the current situation than who said it. From a psychological standpoint, the words aren’t productive. You seem legit man. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 It was a Kinsley gaffe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 9 hours ago, Archie said: If Putin is not thinking rationally which is a good possibility, it could easily escalate in war. Kind along the lines of I'm going to get you before you get me approach. So the issue isnt bidens words per your own argument. Lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) I listened to podcasts of the Sunday shows.... one of them featured a segment about the Russian cyber attack that everyone expects but hasn't happened yet..... huh... wonder why... Maybe someone else doesn't want to escalate with us either. Our media is so fucking stupid. This was after listening to them blame Bidens "gaffe" for it being all they're talking about today.... as if they don't control what they say. I guess Susan Page can't control what Susan Page says on TV. Our media is so fucking stupid. Edited March 28, 2022 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I lol'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Thinking this through. Putin has had multiple attempts on the lives of people he wants eliminated. Zelensky and Navalny seem to be the most crystaline examples. He interfered in our elections (2016, Brexit, the French elections, the German elections, et. al.,) How is this guy above being replaced? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, pfife said: I listened to podcasts of the Sunday shows.... one of them featured a segment about the Russian cyber attack that everyone expects but hasn't happened yet..... huh... wonder why... Maybe someone else doesn't want to escalate with us either. Our media is so fucking stupid. Intelligence information has been pretty solid so far, and they have been warning of these cyber attacks, so I don't have an issue with the media speculating on it. That said, i'm with you on this. As I was listening this morning, I felt like they weren't digging into the reasons why we haven't seen it, but rather just kept saying they are coming and wondering why we haven't seen them yet. It definitely could be Russia doesn't want to escalate it, or another thing I was thinking after reading a story about a 'brain drain' happening in Russia, with mostly younger, educated Russians fleeing the country or the younger generation being against this war, is there internal sabotage or other concerns that are keeping top level officials from pulling that trigger even if they would like to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, romad1 said: How is this guy above being replaced? I certainly hope that our governments goal is to do this, but again, it probably shouldn't be stated publicly unless you actually plan on ensuring that happens by any means necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I certainly hope that our governments goal is to do this, but again, it probably shouldn't be stated publicly unless you actually plan on ensuring that happens by any means necessary. I think he's demonstrated that he's beyond the pale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I don't think that that type of comment serves any purpose except, possibly, gaining some approval points back home. I do not believe that it was a gaffe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, ewsieg said: I certainly hope that our governments goal is to do this, but again, it probably shouldn't be stated publicly unless you actually plan on ensuring that happens by any means necessary. Who said it was our governments goal to do this publicly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: I don't think that that type of comment serves any purpose except, possibly, gaining some approval points back home. I do not believe that it was a gaffe. I dont even know that its that, the comment felt more directed to Eastern Europeans. As much controversy as it has generated here, I could see it being pretty popular in places like Warsaw (where he made the speech), Vilnius and Tallinn. All of whom (for existential reasons) are pretty hawkish on Russia policy. I dont know the degree to which Americans get that... judging by the media's reaction, probably not much. Edited March 28, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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