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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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so is there reason to believe Russian forces will perform better/worse in East than in the North? They will be closer to their supply lines. OTOH, many of the units have been beat up and will have had to burn through more supplies to relocate ~1500 miles. They may also have much better air support unless the West have been able to move more effective air high altitude defense systems into Ukraine.

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13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

so is there reason to believe Russian forces will perform better/worse in East than in the North? They will be closer to their supply lines. OTOH, many of the units have been beat up and will have had to burn through more supplies to relocate ~1500 miles. They may also have much better air support unless the West have been able to move more effective air high altitude defense systems into Ukraine.

The latter point is relevant.  The US has been flying rivet joint and awacs over Romania and Poland and the range of those systems drops after the Kyiv/Crimea line so we won't be providing such good info as we were about the location of ground and air systems.  

Russian troops are broken though.  They plan all sorts of augmentation but their basic foundation is rotten. 

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31 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The latter point is relevant.  The US has been flying rivet joint and awacs over Romania and Poland and the range of those systems drops after the Kyiv/Crimea line so we won't be providing such good info as we were about the location of ground and air systems.  

Russian troops are broken though.  They plan all sorts of augmentation but their basic foundation is rotten. 

How likely is it that the augmentation strategy depends on sheer numbers, the way their Eastern Front strategy against Germany did? Might Putin be thinking, who cares if a million, two million, five million Russian soldiers die, we have plenty in reserve and we will emerge victorious through attrition?

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I like the correlation of military bands to what I'll call regular units. I'm a big concert band fan and and have enjoyed the transition of the U-S Military bands in recent years from primarily marches to more diverse music.
 

It seems that the Russian military while competent in traditional ways have no clue on how to improvise. In other word all chops no soul. 

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1 minute ago, CMRivdogs said:

I like the correlation of military bands to what I'll call regular units. I'm a big concert band fan and and have enjoyed the transition of the U-S Military bands in recent years from primarily marches to more diverse music.
 

It seems that the Russian military while competent in traditional ways have no clue on how to improvise. In other word all chops no soul. 

Yeah, that was an inspired device for framing the narrative. 

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24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

How likely is it that the augmentation strategy depends on sheer numbers, the way their Eastern Front strategy against Germany did? Might Putin be thinking, who cares if a million, two million, five million Russian soldiers die, we have plenty in reserve and we will emerge victorious through attrition?

He may think that, and you *may* get an army to fight on that basis defending their own homes, but it will be an interesting experiment in human motivation to see if you can get one to fight that way in a foreign leadership adventure, especially in a army with little or no unit level leadership. 

If I had to guess, I fear it the way it will go is that Russian ground units will remain largely ineffective but Russian over the horizon firepower will continue to wreak havoc.

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15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

He may think that, and you *may* get an army to fight on that basis defending their own homes, but it will be an interesting experiment in human motivation to see if you can get one to fight that way in a foreign leadership adventure, especially in a army with little or no unit level leadership. 

If I had to guess, I fear it the way it will go is that Russian ground units will remain largely ineffective but Russian over the horizon firepower will continue to wreak havoc.

Maybe it was a mistake for Putin to allow Russians to have achieved substantial gains in real income over the past decade or so, because maybe now they feel they have more to lose. In the days of Communist serfdom and widespread privation, they had practically nothing, so they nothing to lose by going to fight a war.

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Just now, chasfh said:

Maybe it was a mistake for Putin to allow Russians to have achieved substantial gains in real income over the past decade or so, because maybe now they feel they have more to lose. In the days of Communist serfdom and widespread privation, they had practically nothing, so they nothing to lose by going to fight a war.

fair point

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Anyone on board with expropriating all of Russia's foreign frozen assets (more than half of that $600 Billion in Russian owned foreign currency... plus, what else...?) and remanding all of that over to Ukraine as war reparations? 

Not as a negotiating tool with Russia. But a simple handover of ownership to a war crimed victim of Putin's genocidal war.

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