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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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Posted (edited)

Sorry I don't have the link but I read a piece the other day that ran pretty much counter to the common narrative that it's too dangerous to escalate this war by taking it to the Russians. The counter argument is that no matter how badly they do in Ukraine tactically, they simply will not stop lobbing artillery and missiles into the country and making it uninhabitable until the West gives up, OR - the war is taken to them and they are defeated. Not in a position to say much about the overall soundness of that strategically, other than  that it was a cogently argued position based on the history of Russian military practice. 

Edited by gehringer_2
Posted
  On 4/25/2022 at 3:06 AM, romad1 said:

the Navalny documentary was very interesting.  

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Should be on the DVR.

There is a twitter report on the Starsky accnt you quoted above supporting the false flag theory that Russians evacuated military families from Bryansk last week.

So hypothetically, I'm Putin, why would I do this?: If I cut off oil supplies to Germany and persuade them it is the Ukrainian's fault I'm wedging them away from the alliance.

Counter point: How much help is Germany actually being to the cause? Counter counter point: maybe not much now but let's keep it that way......

Posted (edited)

If a refinery is 'burning', it could still be staged though it would require great care not to do any real damage, I would probably argue enemy action -it could get too damn expensive for a false flag and could take months to fix. A pipeline attack, or even an odd storage tank, sure - relatively easy to fix (or do without in the case of a tank) and a burning tank makes for spectacular footage even if it's small (tiny really) potatoes operationally. Maybe the bigger oddity though would be doing a false flag in two locations - why bother with that level of detail?

Edited by gehringer_2
Posted (edited)

These two: Blinken and Austin, are putting in work.  Much better combined team batting average for Team Biden than the 2022 Detroit Tigers thus far.

 

Edited by romad1
Posted

The idea of an insurgency inside Russia is maybe too good to be true, but OTOH, since overt political action is impossible and the technological means for protected inter-cadre communication/organization exists in ways the old surveillance state never had to deal with, who knows?

Posted

also, if truly not a set of hardly credible co-incidences, the possibility of multiple murders including 'non-combatant' women and children family members strikes me more likely to be the work of some kind of extremist group rather than UKR agents, especially the knife/axe work. It would be an odd 'ism' that sought no credit however -- unless the play is to build up a 'resume' before announcing their existence.

Posted (edited)
  On 4/25/2022 at 3:16 AM, romad1 said:

oh

 

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so I did a little more detailed visual survey of the 'refinery' site and environs via google earth. It does not appear to be what we would call a 'refinery' in the US. It appears to be a fuel blending facility or pipeline terminus for rail loading. It's primarily tankage  and a couple of rail loading sidings to handle a couple of dozen rail tankcars at least. There are buildings that could conceivably hold processing facilities (refining process equipment would normally be outdoors, but Russia....), but I see no process furnace stacks or cooling facilities anywhere on the site, which says the only way it can be a processing  facility is if all the cooling is done with water from the nearby river - certainly possible - and they only run extremely clean power units - and how likely is that in Russia? The building are more likely for drum or truck packaging/ blending etc or other non-energy intensive operations.

Edited by gehringer_2

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