Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

The World War II video series on youtube has been doing the battle of Kursk this last two weeks.  It was the ultimate overly telegraphed punch right where the enemy expected it.  And i had thought it was a metaphor for the Donbas and Luhansk battles.  Now, that Russia is rushing reinforcements to Kherson it appears that the telegraphed summer offensive by Ukraine might be being met by hopefully inept Russian defenses.  But, the fear is they have some trick up their sleeves.

[romad1]

Ukraine has grievances 

[romad1]

Imagine living in a country divided by Russian misinformation and fuckery 

 

[romad1]

I don’t like how everyone knows what’s coming 

[1984Echoes]

10 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I don’t like how everyone knows what’s coming 

Yeah... the constant telegraphing is terrible military strategy...

Unless they're consciously trying to reduce pressure in Donetsk...

Until better equipped to both hold the line in Donetsk as well as make a move on Kherson and not caring whatever reinforcements were brought in by the Russians... which would speak to an extremely high level of confidence which I DO approve of...

[HighOPS]

16 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I don’t like how everyone knows what’s coming 

Yep, we all know what happened in 1944 when the allies invaded at Pas de Calais.

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, HighOPS said:

Yep, we all know what happened in 1944 when the allies invaded at Pas de Calais.

first, excellent point.  

The place I would do my attack is different than this but this makes some sense too.  There are reasons why it might be this. 

Edited July 19, 2022 by romad1

[gehringer_2]

51 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I don’t like how everyone knows what’s coming 

In the satellite age, neither side can hide troop movements of any significant scale from the other.

[gehringer_2]

This is a clip of a captured Russian special forces solder. He is 14yr seniority specialist whose unit was assigned to do basically grunt infantry work where it got shot up and he was taken wounded. The Russian army is consuming itself and it's future ability to retrain and regenerate.

 

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

In the satellite age, neither side can hide troop movements of any significant scale from the other.

Well, certainly the rail-bound Russians certainly can't

[gehringer_2]

Russian in the video could be Spencer Turnbull's brother by another mother.

[gehringer_2]

As just a bit of a strategic thought experiment - what if HIMARS has given the Ukrainians the capability to cut though and cut off the Russian forces in the west? If they then also dropped the Crimea bridge...

That would certainly be an opening negotiating position to get the russians out of some/all of eastern Ukraine. In a sane world that might be the basis for a settlement, but I don't think sane world assumptions can be applied as long as Putin is alive/in power. But if that were to change, other things might also of course.

Edited July 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

Those inflatable tanks at Dover might still look good from a satellite, but it would be tricky to assemble and transport them.  They would need wheels and a wooden base, a small motor, and a driver.  You couldn't just assemble them on-site or push them into position, being watched by a satellite in real time.  Real tanks would have to arrive at the assembly area in advance, to drive around and leave so many tracks that it wouldn't be obvious that the fakes weren't leaving any.  What about a heat signature?  This is too complicated for me.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

This is a clip of a captured Russian special forces solder. He is 14yr seniority specialist whose unit was assigned to do basically grunt infantry work where it got shot up and he was taken wounded. The Russian army is consuming itself and it's future ability to retrain and regenerate.

 

 

 

I ADORE the Ukrainians nimbleness, flexibility, competence and resourcefulness...

... and valor.

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Those inflatable tanks at Dover might still look good from a satellite, but it would be tricky to assemble and transport them.  They would need wheels and a wooden base, a small motor, and a driver.  You couldn't just assemble them on-site or push them into position, being watched by a satellite in real time.  Real tanks would have to arrive at the assembly area in advance, to drive around and leave so many tracks that it wouldn't be obvious that the fakes weren't leaving any.  What about a heat signature?  This is too complicated for me.

maybe the biggest problem in this particular conflict for either side trying to surprise the other is the number of sympathizers on the ground able to provide intelligence to the other side via common cellular and the ease of doing that because of common language competence. Certainly a bigger problem for the Russians but still not a non-trivial one for the Ukrainians either.

[Jim Cowan]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

maybe the biggest problem in this particular conflict for either side trying to surprise the other is the number of sympathizers on the ground able to provide intelligence to the other side via common cellular and the ease of doing that because of common language competence. Certainly a bigger problem for the Russians but still not a non-trivial one for the Ukrainians either.

Yes the intelligence on the ground today defeats any 1944 style deception.  I was just musing about 1944 and nothing has changed except Hitler has a satellite to observe enemy movements.  Would he even believe the evidence if it conflicted with his point of view?

[romad1]

only 18 Friends of Putin in the GOP congress?

 

[romad1]

saw this and was a little bummed

 

[romad1]

Isolate and destroy

[1984Echoes]

I keep asking for this.

Cutoff their supply route, and push them back East of the Dnieper River.

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I keep asking for this.

Cutoff their supply route, and push them back East of the Dnieper River.

the logical plan would be to divide the two Russian forces at Kherson - hit the Crimea rail bridge and leave the whole southern army cut off. But the Ukrainians still need a bigger preponderance of capability to do that than they have now. A Ukrainian force with more functional air power though.....

Of course if the Ukrainians ever achieved enough control of the air to fly tank killers like the A10, things would be over quickly anyway,

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

the logical plan would be to divide the two Russian forces at Kherson - hit the Crimea rail bridge and leave the whole southern army cut off. But the Ukrainians still need a bigger preponderance of capability to do that than they have now. A Ukrainian force with more functional air power though.....

Of course if the Ukrainians ever achieved enough control of the air to fly tank killers like the A10, things would be over quickly anyway,

That's a separate bridge.

Also, the Crimea rail bridge doesn't cut off Russia's southern army. It just cuts off the span between Russia and Crimea (city of Kerch) over the Kerch Straits (between the Azov and Black Seas). They still have the new land route between Russia, over southern Ukrainian territory that they just took, going through Mariupol and Melitopol to still get to Crimea and the rest of their southern army. That won't cut off anything except easy and direct access to Crimea (the bridge). They should still take that out though... but I think that is a separate and later campaign; only if and when the Ukrainians want to make an attempt to take back Crimea should they pull that move.

And I don't believe it's smart to go after Crimea either because Russia will unleash their full might and fury to protect the Naval Base in Sevastopol. Possibly nukes. They're not going to fuck around and lose Crimea. No. Possible. Way.

But in order for Ukraine to improve their bargaining power, significantly, they have to take back Kherson. Kherson controls the water supply into Crimea. 10 points. Kherson is west of Crimea, and west over the Dnieper (I think they spell it Dnipro) River. If the Ukrainians destroy THAT bridge, they strand 15,000 Russian soldiers west of the Dnieper River, with a dismal possibility of resupplying those soldiers, or their retreat. And facing Ukraine's full "western" campaign to take back that territory. I think those 15,000 Russian soldiers, once the bridge is destroyed and they can't retreat or get resupplied, surrender. 1 point (Putin could give a fuck how many soldiers he loses...). It also puts them in a position to easily win all the territory west of Crimea... and if they reach the land bridge leading into Crimea, they can easily block access into Crimea from the Donbas/ Russia/ Mariupol/ Melitopol highway. 100 points.

Now that rail bridge over the Kerch Straits COUNTS.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Putin could give a fuck how many soldiers he loses.

you wonder at what point the army cares? I suppose they could just mutiny - there has been a lot of talk about that but not much has been reported as factual. Or how long do the central asian cannon fodder take to realize there are no ethnic Russians in the foxholes with them?

[1984Echoes]

31 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

you wonder at what point the army cares? I suppose they could just mutiny - there has been a lot of talk about that but not much has been reported as factual. Or how long do the central asian cannon fodder take to realize there are no ethnic Russians in the foxholes with them?

They've had a few mini-mutinies (remember the one Colonel run over by a tank/ his own troops?) And there have been refused orders, etc... but all small scale/ nothing game changing.

But speaking of which... a theater wide mutiny in Ukraine by all the "Russian" troops would be astounding/ humiliating/ hilarious. That would put an end to the Putin Regime (IMO...) and any thoughts of expanding Russia by stealing other countries' territory.

[1984Echoes]

23 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

A Ukrainian force with more functional air power though...

Of course if the Ukrainians ever achieved enough control of the air to fly tank killers like the A10, things would be over quickly anyway,

On the subject of A-10 Warthogs for Ukraine:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/air-force-open-sending-10s-164748969.html