Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[1984Echoes]

34 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

...  I suppose one line of thought might be that if Ukraine can bleed Russia enough, they might get a Russian withdrawal without having to retake it all block by block with the casualties that would entail....

From my observations:
 

It appears less to me a western/ NATO/ US "strategy" along these lines... and more a specific Ukrainian policy to not incur drastic casualties in this offensive. I don't disagree that Ukraine would need more offensive equipment to ensure a successful offensive... but I think it also requires additional manpower/ and additional casualties to conduct such an operation.

I saw an interesting hypothesis: That with a Ukrainian insurgency behind the lines, and the HIMARS at the front lines (and out of Russia's range as long as they can avoid Russian air power; which is retreating back into Russia anyways after successful attacks in Crimea against them...); that Ukraine can absolutely bleed Russia nearly to death and, instead of engaging in all all-out assault to take Kherson, for example (weakening troop strength holding the line in Donetsk Oblast), instead... they can have smaller, more mobile units hit and strike Russian forces in multiple attacks. Without an all out assault, and without intense casualties that that would entail.

PS: And not strengthening one area at the expense of weakening several others... (that's the problem of protecting or taking back Ukrainian territory... wide dispersal of troops across multiple fronts...).

 

34 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

But that strikes me as banking on some internal Russian process that would remove Putin when the military pain got bad enough. That certainly appears impossible, but such such things always do right up until they aren't.

It would also be nice if the Germans got on board and stopped playing into Putin's hands with their energy non-policies.

I'm not certain they are banking on it but:

Putin is banking that he can short-shift gas to Germany/ Europe to the point they become desperate this winter and "force" Ukraine to capitulate to Putin's terms. That's what Russia is banking on...

Ukraine? I don't know... Is Zelensky serious he thinks he can retake Crimea or is he just trying to get Putin to taste the battery acid that's in his mouth? Ukraine is going to have to take something... this stalemate will allow Putin to put the pressure on Europe, without any reward of Ukraine taking back any land. That's not winning formula. I know they want to avoid casualties... but without any retaking of Ukrainian territory... the rest of the world, aside from the US, will get discouraged, at the very least. I've been pressing for Ukraine to take back Kherson for... 2 months now?

C'mon Zelensky... gotta figure this out and not just talk about it!!!

(I think he's been talking in order to convince Russia to pull troops out of Donetsk and put them in Kherson... Check. And then they took out the bridges to trap those troops on the wrong side of the Dnieper... Check. And their secret ops took out multiple Crimean targets to get Russia to pull back their supply/ defensive forces out of Crimea that would support a Kherson defense against a Ukrainian attack to recover Kherson... Check. But... NOW's the time guys!!!)

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by 1984Echoes

[romad1]

The only victory strategy for war with Russia is a 1917 strategy.    Bleed them until they go into chaos mode.   Taking back Crimea would cause political bleeding for Russia because of the psychological costs to the average Russian.

Russia is really bad at war and their economy is really suffering under the weight of sanctions.  That said..if China takes the proxy war idea to heart they could fight until the last [insert name of ethnic minority] before collapse.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

until the last [insert name of ethnic minority] before collapse.

This one had me a little puzzled at first. Aside from the obvious factor that military deaths suffered in the hinterlands don't generate much political pressure in Great Russian society, you'd still think that trying to impress a lot of non-slav eastern ethics into the army would leave a poorly motivated force, and it does, as what to they care about Ukraine? But then it hit me, it's a lot easier for a Slavic Russian to just put down his weapon and walk across the line to the other side in Ukraine than it is for a Chechen. Soldiers who don't want to be soldiers want to be able to go home and Ukraine is a lot closer to 'home' for a Muscovite than an Irkut.

Edited August 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

This one had me a little puzzled at first. Aside from the obvious factor that military deaths suffered in the hinterlands don't generate much political pressure in Great Russian society, you'd still think that trying to impress a lot of non-slav eastern ethics into the army would leave a poorly motivated force, and it does, as what to they care about Ukraine? But then it hit me, it's a lot easier for a Slavic Russian to just put down his weapon and walk across the line to the other side in Ukraine than it is for a Chechen. Soldiers who don't want to be soldiers want to be able to go home and Ukraine is a lot closer to 'home' for a Muscovite than an Irkut.

As in the United States, it’s the small town boys from the periphery who sign up. 

[romad1]

I saw some tweet from some wag in the UK military ecosystem saying that the only way out of the war was for Zelensky to negotiate.  

I would immediately subject any person with status who says such nonsense to a financial disclosure and records review: that cat is on the take!

[romad1]

Good day for the gunners and the rocketmen 

[1984Echoes]

On 8/24/2022 at 9:05 PM, 1984Echoes said:

... C'mon Zelensky... gotta figure this out and not just talk about it!!!

(I think he's been talking in order to convince Russia to pull troops out of Donetsk and put them in Kherson... Check. And then they took out the bridges to trap those troops on the wrong side of the Dnieper... Check. And their secret ops took out multiple Crimean targets to get Russia to pull back their supply/ defensive forces out of Crimea that would support a Kherson defense against a Ukrainian attack to recover Kherson... Check. But... NOW's the time guys!!!)

Ukrainian offensive operations commenced this AM in multiple attacks across the southern front lines... some gains already made?

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-launches-military-push-south-possible-counteroffensive-russia-war-2022-8

[romad1]

21 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Ukrainian offensive operations commenced this AM in multiple attacks across the southern front lines... some gains already made?

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-launches-military-push-south-possible-counteroffensive-russia-war-2022-8

The story is out there.  

[romad1]

Russian sources are saying that it is in fact happening but it all ended in tears for the Ukrainians who are running away scared of future losses.   Scott Ritter who was one of our UN inspectors in Iraq among them.

[1984Echoes]

42 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Russian sources are saying ...

Not gonna believe a single word from "Russian sources are saying"...

Why does this remind me of Trump incessantly stating that "people are saying"...?

In other words. Horse shit.

[romad1]

43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not gonna believe a single word from "Russian sources are saying"...

Why does this remind me of Trump incessantly stating that "people are saying"...?

In other words. Horse shit.

yes, don't listen to Russian propaganda

[romad1]

I don't gloat at this panic.

 

But, the regime brought this to these people.

[CMRivdogs]

 

[romad1]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

When it happens like this, its not an accident.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

When it happens like this, its not an accident.

What I find interesting is that the Russians don't even bother trying to be credible in the lies. They have gone beyond using language simply to deceive. It's all about establishing an almost 'Matrix' like duality of universes:

"Your experience may tell you that in the 'real' world people do not fall out of hospital windows, but you are not actually in the 'real' world. We control the ultimate reality, and that is hidden from you. We are merely hosting the reality you believe in out of our forbearance, and should we withdraw that benevolence toward you at any time, you will find yourself in our world - one full of unknowable terrors for you."

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

What I find interesting is that the Russians don't even bother trying to be credible in the lies. They have gone beyond using language simply to deceive. It's all about establishing an almost 'Matrix' like duality of universes:

"Your experience may tell you that in the 'real' world people do not fall out of hospital windows, but you are not actually in the 'real' world. We control the ultimate reality, and that is hidden from you. We are merely hosting the reality you believe in out of our forbearance, and should we withdraw that benevolence toward you at any time, you will find yourself in our world - one full of unknowable terrors for you."

Its the world that Donald Trump lives in as well.  

[Jim Cowan]

You gotta be careful near those open windows.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

You gotta be careful near those open windows.

"Defenestration"

Sounds like something that should be a violation of some EPA reg doesn't it?

[romad1]

You know this is what Trump's GOP supporters fear if they turn on him. 

[romad1]

Oh, I wonder if this is related to Mar-a-lago?   Oh, I wonder if this guy is suddenly retiring for a reason?

 

[romad1]

Interesting thread about Sullivan's departure

 

[1984Echoes]

GFY Putin:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-approves-foreign-policy-doctrine-185136774.html

 

Are you now going to invade Brooklyn/ Brighton Beach because, you know, we have at least a couple of Russian speakers in that area too?

GFY Putin.

[chasfh]

17 hours ago, romad1 said:

Interesting thread about Sullivan's departure

 

Oops ...

 

[1984Echoes]

The new Ambassador to Russia:

Hillary Clinton

[1984Echoes]

Putin would absolutely LOVE that!!!