Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

The lady can dance and she's very smart

 

[romad1]

Poor fella

[chasfh]

 

[romad1]

45 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

for all the "when will they overthrow Putin?" hot takes and suppositions that people make.   Just remember Saddam Hussein was in power for a decade+ after having his ass kicked by the US in Desert Storm.

[gehringer_2]

47 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

you keep what you kill?

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, romad1 said:

for all the "when will they overthrow Putin?" hot takes and suppositions that people make.   Just remember Saddam Hussein was in power for a decade+ after having his ass kicked by the US in Desert Storm.

True enough - though differences also. The Sunni power structure in Iraq knew that once Saddam fell they were never going to get power back again - beyond Saddam they had no prospects - the future was civil-war and/or an inevitable Shia take-over since the Americans would eventually force an election the Sunni couldn't win if they removed Saddam. "Reformed"  government by the Sunni wasn't possible in Iraq as the only 'reform' the Shia cared about was gaining control.

What is so striking in Russia is the degree to which Putin is destroying all the vestiges of civil society that could reasonably function once his bullet finds him. It's going to be like Libya isn't it?

Edited September 15, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

lets hope they don't get along

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

True enough - though differences also. The Sunni power structure in Iraq knew that once Saddam fell they were never going to get power back again - beyond Saddam they had no prospects - the future was civil-war and/or an inevitable Shia take-over since the Americans would eventually force an election the Sunni couldn't win if they removed Saddam. "Reformed"  government by the Sunni wasn't possible in Iraq as the only 'reform' the Shia cared about was gaining control.

What is so striking in Russia is the degree to which Putin is destroying all the vestiges of civil society that could reasonably function once his bullet finds him. It's going to be like Libya isn't it?

I think one difference is that the US and Europe would probably be willing to help Russia get on its feet democratically, given their strategic location in Europe—something US/Europe wouldn’t spend as much time on for Libya.

[chasfh]

30 minutes ago, romad1 said:

lets hope they don't get along

I can’t imagine Putin playing the supplicant role, so I think your hope is well-founded.

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think one difference is that the US and Europe would probably be willing to help Russia get on its feet democratically, given their strategic location in Europe—something US/Europe wouldn’t spend as much time on for Libya.

True. Of course the question is can the West do any better job than the 'help' offered after the Soviet Union fell apart? 

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

True. Of course the question is can the West do any better job than the 'help' offered after the Soviet Union fell apart? 

As long as it’s uncoordinated and beholden to private enterprise actually doing the legwork, probably not.

Edited September 15, 2022 by chasfh

[romad1]

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

As long as it’s uncoordinated and beholden to private enterprise actually doing the legwork, probably not.

The huge problem with the last 20-30 years since 1989 has been the slobbering adherence within political right to the comfort of the notion that capitalism = democracy.   That definitely went on for too long wrt China.  Made all the more clear as a problem by Xi's reembrace of central control of his State Owned Enterprises.  

With Russia, too much money crossed too many hands in the West. 

[gehringer_2]

I get the rationale that the US doesn't want to supply things like ATACMS to Ulraine, but they are going to need to supply better anti-missile defense and quickly because at this point the Russians appear to be committed to doing as much domestic mayhem in Ulraine as they can.

[romad1]

26 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I get the rationale that the US doesn't want to supply things like ATACMS to Ulraine, but they are going to need to supply better anti-missile defense and quickly because at this point the Russians appear to be committed to doing as much domestic mayhem in Ulraine as they can.

Russia is spending a lot of theater weapons to kill some civilians

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Russia is spending a lot of theater weapons to kill some civilians

it would be better if they spent the weapons and didn't kill the civilians!

[mtutiger]

 

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, romad1 said:

lets hope they don't get along

Putie's body language in the video looks like a 5th grader trying to explain why he doesn't have his assignments done.

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Putie's body language in the video looks like a 5th grader trying to explain why he doesn't have his assignments done.

My immediate thought is that Xi is Hitler to Putin's Mussolini.  

XI is closer to Stalin than Hitler though.   If he survives October that is.

[chasfh]

21 minutes ago, romad1 said:

My immediate thought is that Xi is Hitler to Putin's Mussolini.  

XI is closer to Stalin than Hitler though.   If he survives October that is.

If Xi survives October? What do you know about what's going to happen with Xi in October?

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Xi survives October? What do you know about what's going to happen with Xi in October?

My man.  Xi has a big CCP congress meeting or Party for the Party if you will, in October.  Basically its the trope of all those situation comedies when the wife has to prepare a flawless meal when the boss or bank manager is coming to dinner.   Except in this case, Xi is probably dealing with a stacked deck and could have any individual complaining about his leadership sent to a reeducation camp. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by romad1

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

My man.  Xi has a big CCP congress meeting or Party for the Party if you will, in October.  Basically its the trope of all those situation comedies when the wife has to prepare a flawless meal when the boss or bank manager is coming to dinner.   Except in this case, Xi is probably dealing with a stacked deck and could have any individual complaining about his leadership sent to a reeducation camp. 

12 months ago I don't think anyone would have even given odds against Xi's reappointment, but it hasn't been a good year for him. Not that you'd still get many takers on those odds, but whatever they are, they have to be worse than they were.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

12 months ago I don't think anyone would have even given odds against Xi's reappointment, but it hasn't been a good year for him. Not that you'd still get many takers on those odds, but whatever they are, they have to be worse than they were.

I think in this case they were just trying to fish in the punters to get them to lay odds.  But if Xi is dumped...fwew!  I can think of a few bad outcomes but a lot of good ones. 

[1984Echoes]

I want Peacekeepers in Ukraine ASAP.

20-ish K Polish troops.

10-ish K German, Slovaki & Romanian troops.

10-ish K UK & Norwegian troops.

15-ish K US troops.

Time to tell Putin to F Off. In a not so unsubtle way. Escalation is no longer an option for Putin. Force a de-escalation. And bring in the missile defenses to cut down or force the de-escalation of Russia's missile attacks.

But that's just me.

[1984Echoes]

14 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I think in this case they were just trying to fish in the punters to get them to lay odds.  But if Xi is dumped...fwew!  I can think of a few bad outcomes but a lot of good ones. 

There is ZERO possibility of Xi getting dumped.

Where is this fever dream coming from?

Because it certainly isn't based on any reality.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

There is ZERO possibility of Xi getting dumped.

Where is this fever dream coming from?

Because it certainly isn't based on any reality.

It’s like asking if Putin was going to win the recent elections.  They technically had elections.  It looked like democracy but wasn’t.