Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[gehringer_2]

ISW with and extra report today on Russian mobilization.

Interesting piece of background in the report is that the Russian efforts to convert to an all volunteer force which began in 2008 actually foundered on the inability of Russia to fund the salary costs of a fully professional force. 

Quote

 The Russian military remained committed to the cadre-and-reserve model until 2008, when Putin directed his newly appointed Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov to move the Russian military to a professional model and reform it to save costs following the 2008 financial crisis.[1] One such cost-cutting measure reduced the term of mandatory conscript service to 18 months in 2007 and then to one year in 2008.

The Russian military ended up with a hybrid model blending conscript and professional soldiers. Professional militaries are expensive because the state must offer prospective voluntary recruits far higher salaries and benefits than it gives to conscripts, who have no choice but to serve. Serdyukov quickly found that the Russian defense budget could not afford to offer enticements sufficient to overcome the centuries-old Russian resistance to military service. The Russian military thus became a mix of volunteer professional soldiers, whom the Russians call kontraktniki, and one-year conscripts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25

[Crazy Cat Gentleman]

so, Dagestan.

 

[romad1]

seems a bit like the third episode of Andor.

[Tigeraholic1]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

seems a bit like the third episode of Andor.

Great anology, I am really liking this series. You needed the three episode drop to build the story.

[romad1]

1 minute ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Great anology, I am really liking this series. You needed the three episode drop to build the story.

Much more mature than the very disappointing dumbed down Boba Fett.  That one could have been so much better but they turned it into an 8yr old's idea of what a gangster boss should be like.  

[oblong]

I watched the first episode and liked it.  Having trouble keeping up with my fantasy shows, luckily I didn't get into GoT.  And we started Dahmer last night too.

 

[romad1]

26 minutes ago, oblong said:

I watched the first episode and liked it.  Having trouble keeping up with my fantasy shows, luckily I didn't get into GoT.  And we started Dahmer last night too.

 

Like where Andor is going.  Grittier and realer than all other Star Wars content.  Its a tease for all us people who wished the franchise had stayed more serious. 

[oblong]

3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Like where Andor is going.  Grittier and realer than all other Star Wars content.  Its a tease for all us people who wished the franchise had stayed more serious. 

Which keeps in line with my thinking Rogue One is the best film they've done since Empire.

 

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, oblong said:

Which keeps in line with my thinking Rogue One is the best film they've done since Empire.

 

Rogue One was as good as any of the WWII action movies of the 50s or 60s (e.g., Guns of Navaronne or Bridge on the River Kwai)...almost as well acted but not quite.  Not saying Diego Luna and Felicity Jones are slouches but they aren't David Niven and Gregory Peck or William Holden and Alec Guinness. 

[ewsieg]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63036991

Putin is so desperate for conscripts he just gave Snowden citizenship.

[smr-nj]

27 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63036991

Putin is so desperate for conscripts he just gave Snowden citizenship.

So, put him on the front line. 👍

[romad1]

10 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

So, put him on the front line. 👍

yes indeed

[1984Echoes]

11 hours ago, romad1 said:

Like where Andor is going.  Grittier and realer than all other Star Wars content.  Its a tease for all us people who wished the franchise had stayed more serious. 

The grit factor is off the charts.

Restores my faith in.... 

Star Wars? Yeah, absolutely.

I'd like to say humanity but MAGA Republicans are poisoning this country with hatred and Putin is attempting to murder Ukraine.

Maybe next year...

[romad1]

Whoopsie.  Put the wrong kid on the live broadcast

 

[romad1]

Mattie knows about pardons. 

 

[Motor City Sonics]

While Snowden did bring up some good points about our own government spying on us, anyone with half a brain already knew they were doing that and there was no way they'd have that kind of technology without using it.    But other than that, he can go fuck off and die with Putin.   Hope they both die an agonizing death.  

[romad1]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

While Snowden did bring up some good points about our own government spying on us, anyone with half a brain already knew they were doing that and there was no way they'd have that kind of technology without using it.    But other than that, he can go fuck off and die with Putin.   Hope they both die an agonizing death.  

Snowden was arguing balls and strikes about a country that cares about balls and strikes and decided that he'd rather spend the rest of his life in a country that kills the umpires. 

[Motor City Sonics]

49 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Snowden was arguing balls and strikes about a country that cares about balls and strikes and decided that he'd rather spend the rest of his life in a country that kills the umpires. 

Yep...............have fun buddy.   You'll never have a private moment again as long as you live.   

[gehringer_2]

Nordstream 2 apparently targeted by some kind of undewater bombing.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-00232df3f4b4bc89afd47d4707724e33

Russians want an excuse not pay contract non-delivery penalties? 

Someone in the West wants to make sure Germany has no opporunity to backslide?

One thing for certain- getting millions of gallons of salt water in a gas pipeline aint going to be good for it.

Edited September 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Nordstream 2 apparently targeted by some kind of undewater bombing.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-00232df3f4b4bc89afd47d4707724e33

Russians want an excuse not pay contract non-delivery penalties? 

Someone in the West wants to make sure Germany has no opporunity to backslide?

Nice pipeline Vladdie, it would be a shame if it were to spring a leak or two. 

[1984Echoes]

Both Nordstream 2 AND Nordstream 1 have been disrupted/ attacked. They are both out of commission.

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Both Nordstream 2 AND Nordstream 1 have been disrupted/ attacked. They are both out of commission.

we will be able to tell a lot by who is angry about this. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Both Nordstream 2 AND Nordstream 1 have been disrupted/ attacked. They are both out of commission.

given that in both cases there could be a lot of international wrangling before repairs are begun on either one, and that the interiors, which are not designed for it, will be sitting in salt water, it's conceivable that large sections of either or both pipelines could end up total losses. Not a prediction, but a possibility.

Edited September 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

given that in both cases there could be a lot of international wrangling before repairs are begun on either one, and that the interiors, which are not designed for it, will be sitting in salt water, it's conceivable that large sections of either or both pipelines could end up total losses. Not a prediction, but a possibility.

Occam razor says it's the Russians and it's meant to be a threat to the new Norwegian pipeline. But if that's true is also means that Putin's regime is committed to a program from which there will be no way back into the civilized order of nations - pretty much ever ( that being the circumstance under which the pipelines have lost their value to Russia). As much as that was already practically true because of Ukraine, there was at least an internal Russian fiction that Ukraine was an internal issue. Start attacking 3rd party nation infrastructure and that's the end of that. Just another case where Putin's interpretation of Russia's future is increasingly at odds with his population's.

[1984Echoes]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

given that in both cases there could be a lot of international wrangling before repairs are begun on either one, and that the interiors, which are not designed for it, will be sitting in salt water, it's conceivable that large sections of either or both pipelines could end up total losses. Not a prediction, but a possibility.

Short answer:

They are kaput.