Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

Which of you guys signed up for this?  That's a big number.

[romad1]

More on this monster 

 

 

[romad1]

I don't know if this in particular is a reliable indicator but the USG knows that Russia has some extra-crazy coming

 

[ewsieg]

There are a lot of rumblings that Putin wants to do it around the 1 year anniversary date which would be later this month.  Wish I would have saved it, but I saw a twitter thread about a week ago from an ex US military person analyzing what that would look like.  He wasn't confident if Ukraine would hold them back or if Russia would overrun them in the south and east, especially if Russia threatened another attack on Kyiv which would force Ukraine to move forces to protect it.  What he was confident of though is that Russia's already bad logistical planning is using even older equipment now.  If it holds up enough to lead to some big gains, he doesn't think even Wagner will be able to stop Ukraine from doing what it did late last year and taking it all back fairly quickly. 

[ewsieg]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:41 PM, romad1 said:

Which of you guys signed up for this?  That's a big number.

1 mentally ill person and 9,999,999 Internet trolls.

[romad1]

 

[gehringer_2]

Maybe the Finns should make them worry by staging a feint to retake Karelia. Or maybe just go ahead and do it......🤔

 

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Maybe the Finns should make them worry by staging a feint to retake Karelia. Or maybe just go ahead and do it......🤔

 

Romania should assist Moldova by invading the Transdniestra and kicking out the Russians.

Georgia should attack and take back their territories Abkhazia and South Ossetia.. and kick out the remaining Russian forces.

Poland should attack Byelorussia and take over/ hand over the country to the duly-elected Byelorussian Government that was cheated out of their 2020 electoral victory by Lukashenko. And kick out the Russians.

Yes, Finland should attack Karelia and take back the lands that they gave away to Russia after WINNING their war against them (Russians started it with a winter invasion) in 1939.

Japan should forcibly take back the 4 Kuril islands that are actually Japanese, not Russian.

Kaliningrad is a more difficult issue however. More heavily fortified than any other exo-territory of Russia. I'd like the Polish to kick the Russians out of Kaliningrad too... but that's a big ask...

 

 

[gehringer_2]

he's getting worse. Both legs quaking and his right hand clenched on the chair for suppression. Unfortunately even if it is Parkinson's it could still take a long time to kill him.

 

[Tigerbomb13]

 

[romad1]

17 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

 

Tucker Carlson wants this sort of treatment for our kids.  Not his kids mind you.  He's special because God gave him fishstick money.

[chasfh]

I don’t know—Russia is the country that still celebrates as a badge of national honor the losing of tens of millions of people, soldiers and civilians, in the service of winning a world war. Whether true or not, if Putin leadership believes they can tap into that kind of heroic resolve here, they will gladly send millions to their demise in Ukraine before they seriously consider pulling the plug.

Edited February 18, 2023 by chasfh

[romad1]

Collective security ftw

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by romad1

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Collective security ftw

 

Let's hope consensus turns into more than talk. I have this fantasy that in a few weeks we will learn out that 200 Ukrainain pilots have been training on F-16s in secret all over Europe. Unfortunately I don't think is it more than a fantasy.

Edited February 19, 2023 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Let's hope consensus turns into more than talk. I have this fantasy that in a few weeks we will learn out that 200 Ukrainain pilots have been training on F-16s in secret all over Europe. Unfortunately I don't think is it more than a fantasy.

Was listening to something very interesting on the armor donation from  the NATO and EU members today.  The experts note that Ukraine has plenty of the Soviet pattern tanks but needs the superior western models in i order to win.  Russia with their crap tanks and crap training (e.g., they never use camouflage) and with their crappy radio security they will be shattered once Ukraine gets on the offensive.  

[romad1]

well ok

 

[1984Echoes]

They need longer range bombs and missiles.

We're sending GLSDB bombs to Ukraine with 90+ mile range but... not for 6-to-9-ish months (line production instead of existing inventory...).

Send these and ATACMS to them sooner and in large numbers and the war will be won sooner.

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, romad1 said:

well ok

 

Yeah, that's what I mean...

[1984Echoes]

"Collective security..."

[romad1]

9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

They need longer range bombs and missiles.

We're sending GLSDB bombs to Ukraine with 90+ mile range but... not for 6-to-9-ish months (line production instead of existing inventory...).

Send these and ATACMS to them sooner and in large numbers and the war will be won sooner.

The bigger danger is China but yes, get them some ATACMS and some older AC like F-16s.  We are going to need all our 5th gens and our access denial weapons for the onslaught on Taiwan coming as soon as this summer.

Edited February 19, 2023 by romad1

[romad1]

We definitely need our JASSMs for China

[1984Echoes]

Yes... if it comes to war with China, it will be naval and air forces that win out...

Although I would think JASSM's would be useful on the China mainland (I don't see war going there...); and not so much in defending Taiwan from invasion...

[gehringer_2]

13 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don’t know—Russia is the country that still celebrates as a badge of national honor the losing of tens of millions of people, soldiers and civilians, in the service of winning a world war. Whether true or not, if Putin leadership believes they can tap into that kind of heroic resolve here, they will gladly send millions to their demise in Ukraine before they seriously consider pulling the plug.

I was actually curious and pulled up Russian demographic numbers - (per the Wiki). 

As of 2021 census, the total number of Russian men between 18 and 40 was about 20 Million. Of those about 6M are between 18 and 26 (traditional US draftable age for comparison) - fertilitly dropped off a lot after 1990. Of those, it's estimated 500K draft age men have left Russia since mobilization began.

[1984Echoes]

And not every guy is fit for military service.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I was actually curious and pulled up Russian demographic numbers - (per the Wiki). 

As of 2021 census, the total number of Russian men between 18 and 40 was about 20 Million. Of those about 6M are between 18 and 26 (traditional US draftable age for comparison) - fertilitly dropped off a lot after 1990. Of those, it's estimated 500K draft age men have left Russia since mobilization began.

For comparative purposes:

Soviet population prior to WWII: 195 million.

Soviet population post to WWII: 170 million.

Russian population pre-Feb 22nd, 2022: 144.7 million

Current Russian population? 144.4 million (estimated per macrotrends)

I think the current estimate is slightly high due to war exodus (moreso than war casualties...).