Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

Finland is forward leaning on this

 

[1984Echoes]

On 3/9/2023 at 3:22 PM, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Once Bakhumut falls we will see how far Russia presses the attack.

Let us know when that happens.

[gehringer_2]

reports that a US B-52 with Polish figher escorts "toured" the Gulf of Finland today - virtually on the Russian border. I wonder if a part of this is NATO is saying to Russia - "You can make a 100% resource commitment to your operations in Ukraine but there is no free lunch -  it's going to cost you not being able to respond to who knows what we might be up to on your borders. Have a nice day Ivan."

[gehringer_2]

Wagner opening up recruitment centers around Russia. How stable can a country be with growing private army running around? Maybe we shouldn't discount that one way this war ends for the Ukrainians is when Prigozhin's Wagner and Putin's MOD break into open warfare with each other to control the country. Sort of a repeat of the Russian exit  from WWI?

[Jim Cowan]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Wagner opening up recruitment centers around Russia. How stable can a country be with growing private army running around? Maybe we shouldn't discount that one way this war ends for the Ukrainians is when Prigozhin's Wagner and Putin's MOD break into open warfare with each other to control the country. Sort of a repeat of the Russian exit  from WWI?

That's really interesting.  Yes, they have done it before.

As always though, be careful what you wish for.

[romad1]

Sorry Trump, Sorry Tucker, Sorry large Marge

 

 

[digitalpigsmuggler]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/12/biden-united-states-ukraine-relationship-cracks-00086654
 

so what Ukraine just gobbles up western money and munitions to fight to a stand still? 

[romad1]

Now, as an airpower guy... I would love to see what would happen if the "vaunted" VVS were to face competent NATO air forces.   However, we know it would be precursor to WWIII so I actually don't want to see that.   But, damn Russia has shown nothing but its ass in this war in anything requiring training hours or the management of resources.  Its almost as if you can't run a war with a Potemkin military. 

[digitalpigsmuggler]

48 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Now, as an airpower guy... I would love to see what would happen if the "vaunted" VVS were to face competent NATO air forces.   However, we know it would be precursor to WWIII so I actually don't want to see that.   But, damn Russia has shown nothing but its ass in this war in anything requiring training hours or the management of resources.  Its almost as if you can't run a war with a Potemkin military. 

They should have focused earlier on taking out the power grid. 
 

but what’s the end game for both sides. Neither side is going to get everything they want. But western media keeps perpetuating this idea Ukraine is going to have some huge massive breakthrough. 

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

They should have focused earlier on taking out the power grid. 
 

but what’s the end game for both sides. Neither side is going to get everything they want. But western media keeps perpetuating this idea Ukraine is going to have some huge massive breakthrough. 

We'll see in the next few months where the capabilities of each side actually stand. Russia has thrown everything they have and fundamentally have not moved the line. Ukraine has withstood all that so far and is still building capability - enough to force the Russians to sue for peace on their terms? Unknown, but I think we can be pretty certain they are going to try before the year is out. Then final outcome likelihoods will become clearer.

Edited March 12, 2023 by gehringer_2

[digitalpigsmuggler]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

We'll see in the next few months where the capabilities of each side actually stand. Russia has thrown everything they have and fundamentally have not moved the line. Ukraine has withstood all that so far and is still building capability - enough to force the Russians to sue for peace on their terms? Unknown, but I think we can be pretty certain they are going to try before the year is out. Then final outcome likelihoods will become clearer.

Wasn’t the media making a big to do about Ukraine not having enough shells. If that’s accurate going to be hard to launch offensive. 

[Jim Cowan]

Russia was supposed to have a huge strategic advantage in the winter.  Europe would be freezing in the dark without Russian energy, and support for Ukraine would disappear as a result.  It didn't happen.

[romad1]

47 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Russia was supposed to have a huge strategic advantage in the winter.  Europe would be freezing in the dark without Russian energy, and support for Ukraine would disappear as a result.  It didn't happen.

When the townspeople unify they can stand up to the bully.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

... this idea Ukraine is going to have some huge massive breakthrough. 

They are.

[romad1]

57 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

They are.

Well, actual professionals are resourcing the program.  They have actual information and are coordinating it across a nation that has motive beyond measure.   Meanwhile, who in Russia has really suffered except those conscripted? 

[romad1]

Lots of copium

[romad1]

Awesome!

 

[romad1]

I don't think we are loaning Ukraine our B1s

[digitalpigsmuggler]

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2023/02/22/west-v-the-rest-divide-over-ukraine-war-poll-finds/

[CMRivdogs]

Quote

The National is a private English-language daily newspaperpublished in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The newspaper is owned by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates and member of the royal family of Abu Dhabi.^[

 

[CMRivdogs]

Quote

In a 2012 article in the American Journalism Review, former foreign desk editor Tom O'Hara contended that coverage was skewed to favor the agenda of the government of the United Arab Emirates. He said that the newspaper had a "meticulous censorship process" that directly influenced coverage and word usage in the newspaper, such as prohibiting use of the term "Persian Gulf". He said that the newspaper engaged in self-censorship, suppressing coverage of subjects deemed to cast an unfavorable light on the UAE royal family and government. He said that, among other things, coverage of the Libyan uprising was suppressed, as were articles about WikiLeaks and gay rights.^[17]

The New Republic reported in February 2013 that The National had failed to live up to high expectations that had been raised when it was established. The magazine said that the newsroom has had a series of crises during the preceding five years, and that "tensions over the management and direction of the paper have been simmering behind the scenes, with leadership changes, budget cuts, infighting and allegations of rampant self-censorship conspiring to trigger a series of defections that have depleted the paper of much of its marquee talent". The article described examples of rampant self-censorship, and said the newspaper's story was "a cautionary tale about pursuing journalism in a censored society".^[11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_National_(Abu_Dhabi)

[romad1]

It wouldn't be because they were using them with careful planning, dexterous leadership and dynamic targeting.

[romad1]

Meanwhile

 

[romad1]

also meanwhile, 

What does this video look like to you? 

Looks like Tom's interview with "The Bobs" in Office Space. 

[ewsieg]

16 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Russia was supposed to have a huge strategic advantage in the winter.  Europe would be freezing in the dark without Russian energy, and support for Ukraine would disappear as a result.  It didn't happen.

Europe had a very warm winter, at one point it was the warmest on record, I'm not sure how that finished out.  Regardless they got a bit lucky, which I'll take.