Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

This is a worthy read

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-attack-bakhmut-himars/

[digitalpigsmuggler]

After Bakhmut: Draining Battle Leaves Ukraine Battered, Russia Rising

 

There is nothing patriotic about an American flying a Ukrainian flag. Nor is there anything treasonous about an American questioning unlimited support for a foreign nation in a foreign war. To recognize that Ukraine will not defeat Russia without much greater American intervention is not pro-Russian, it is pro-reality.

It took longer than we expected, but this defeat has made it even less likely that Ukraine can reestablish its 2014 borders without the direct intervention of NATO troops.

Russia is now poised to take full advantage of the fall of Bakhmut once dry summer weather arrives. One need not be a prophet to see where this persistent escalation is leading or why it needs to stop.

Last year the Ukrainian economy shrank by 30 percent, while Russian GDP fell by only 3 percent. The ruble is as strong against the dollar today as it was when the war began.

Now, however, the peace terms Kiev can expect have become even less favorable than they were seven months ago.

Ukraine has about as much chance of winning a war against Russia as Mexico would of winning a war with the United States.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/after-bakhmut-draining-battle-leaves-ukraine-battered-russia-rising-opinion-1795453

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Russia Claims Near Total Control of Bakhmut

Wgner Group mercenary fighters have taken control of about 90 percent of the city of Bakhmut, according to a report from Russian  media.

The Wagner private military company controls about 90 percent of Artyomovsk and its advance is inevitable," Gagin told the outlet. Bakhmut was formally named Artyomovsk when Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-claims-near-total-control-bakhmut-putin-tours-occupied-land-1795185

 

 

[digitalpigsmuggler]

3 hours ago, romad1 said:

This is a worthy read

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-attack-bakhmut-himars/

Ukraine can not win a battle of attrition. From leaked intelligence reports American intelligence believes the Ukraine offensive will be limited. It is possible Ukraine could be in a worse negation position.  

[digitalpigsmuggler]

So far, Russia has destroyed between 60 and 70% of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. It seems unlikely that the West will supply Kyiv. Ukraine is becoming less and less able to repair its destroyed infrastructure. Equipment and materials that would usually come from Russia are running out.

Russian army is combatting Western precision weapons with sheer numbers, and it has enough resources to fall back on.As the war drags on, Ukraine is running out of soldiers. Depending on how you measure it, the current mobilization drive is at least the eighth wave, and men over 60 are being sent to the front.

 

https://worldcrunch.com/focus/why-ukraine-will-lose-the-war

 

[romad1]

Imagine how sad a person has to be to defend a dictatorship run by Putin

[ewsieg]

10 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Imagine how sad a person has to be to defend a dictatorship run by Putin

I'm not here to defend Putin or Pigsmuggler, but pointing out some legitimate concerns, rather than painting a rosy picture like western media has done, doesn't mean you're defending Russia.

I want Russia to lose, it would be awesome if this cost Putin his leadership and in a perfect world, someone like Navalny would be swept into power.  But it's important to know the reality that everything isn't coming up roses in Ukraine.  

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Imagine how sad a person has to be to defend a dictatorship run by Putin

That analysis could have been cribbed from Westmoreland in '67.

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I'm not here to defend Putin or Pigsmuggler, but pointing out some legitimate concerns, rather than painting a rosy picture like western media has done, doesn't mean you're defending Russia.

I want Russia to lose, it would be awesome if this cost Putin his leadership and in a perfect world, someone like Navalny would be swept into power.  But it's important to know the reality that everything isn't coming up roses in Ukraine.  

Defending ****posters is defending their works

[romad1]

its like pretending that Tucker Carlson isn't rooting for Putin when he claims he's "just asking questions"

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

That analysis could have been cribbed from Westmoreland in '67.

You mean, the Russian "light at the end of the tunnel" because they took so many casualties clearly Ukraine is losing.  Which is like saying Vietnam must be at the end of their rope because of all the bodycount reports.  

[romad1]

The preferred end state that I'm after is a Russia which resembles a democracy allied against China.  LFG!

[digitalpigsmuggler]

17 minutes ago, romad1 said:

You mean, the Russian "light at the end of the tunnel" because they took so many casualties clearly Ukraine is losing.  Which is like saying Vietnam must be at the end of their rope because of all the bodycount reports.  

Neither side is "winning". But Russia controls almost 20% of Ukraine territory. It is not realistic to think Russia is just going to hand it over at the negotiation table. The Ukraine counter offensive is being overly hyped according to the leaked documents.  The idea Crimea is going to be taken within the next 7 months as media and Ukraine leaders have said at the start of the year is just wrong.

[romad1]

RFK JR has some of his grandpa's hatred for democracy

 

[romad1]

oh, watch out friends of Putin

 

[romad1]

How about that Vladdie?

[romad1]

So, that war of yours Vladdie...you ended up antagonizing the entire Western world with the exception of a few kleptocracies and autocracies. 

[romad1]

Take these numbers with the appropriate grains of salt.  However, can you imagine how much this war would have cost if the Orc's equipment was actually worth anything?  Then again, would they have lost the stuff if it was actually of any value?  

 

[romad1]

The stooge who had Putin's job for a while during the Obama administration is apparently on a drunken bender and threatening genocide to all and sundry.

[romad1]

Side bar...this is a hell of a thread.

 

[romad1]

Very good video 

 

 

[romad1]

Its not as cut and dried as this.  But...

 

[romad1]

Good thread

She knows things.  The things are rational.

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Good thread

She knows things.  The things are rational.

Good thread.

[smr-nj]

Wow. That was written in a way even I could absorb.  Amazing analysis.