romad1 Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 if this was the USN the ship would be fine. Because this is the Russian Navy which has more ships on the ocean floor than on the seas…goodbye Ivan Khurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 For sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 Break the dam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 Some stuff going on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 This too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: Do you suppose the Ukrainians figured out that the best thing not to do is what everyone ( including the Russian MoD) expected them to do -i.e just pick a spot and start rolling tanks into defensive lines? Maybe we are seeing the roll-out of the most unconventional counter-offensive they could dream up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Do you suppose the Ukrainians figured out that the best thing not to do is what everyone ( including the Russian MoD) expected them to do -i.e just pick a spot and start rolling tanks into defensive lines? Maybe we are seeing the roll-out of the most unconventional counter-offensive they could dream up. My guess is that the Ukrainians follow US/Israeli campaign design doctrine which is very much planned to the gnat's level but which allows flexible approaches. You might remember a lot of things were going on in Iraq 1991 and 2003 which were "look at what my hand is doing over here" while other things were happening. 1991 was interesting, because for all the force level that was in the Desert, the USMC and UK did the difficult breaching thing in Kuwait at the same time as the VII Corp strategic envelopment. Having total Air dominance was very nice. 2003 showed that we updated the plan and with fewer forces were able to do the same thing because of information dominance. Now, if the Ukrainians have the same level of information dominance -- assuming there is a pro-Ukrainian partisan with a cell phone (presuming a working cell signal) in every village they will try to liberate -- they might; and if the western IC services are providing world-class strategic pictures of what is happening via their national technical means, Ukraine should be able to do very similarly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Do you suppose the Ukrainians figured out that the best thing not to do is what everyone ( including the Russian MoD) expected them to do -i.e just pick a spot and start rolling tanks into defensive lines? Maybe we are seeing the roll-out of the most unconventional counter-offensive they could dream up. The Ukrainians are short man-power and equipment, compared to the Russians... at least before the West loaded them up. But even then, they are going to be supremely cautious with their manpower to avoid casualties as best they can. That means they are going to be nothing but unconventional. When they took Kherson... they made a bunch of loud noises (basically banging pans for two months) and just allowed most Russian forces to retreat across the Dnieper River so that the forces they faced in Kherson were... depleted to say the least. That drastically reduced Ukrainian casualties and, they basically, cake-walked into Kherson. When the Ukrainians swept the Russians out of the northeast, mostly around the Kharkiv area, they had been making so much noise about taking back the south for a couple months, and allowing media to amplify that same message... that Russia moved massive amounts of men and arms out of the Donbas area and into Kherson Oblast, so that the Ukrainians northeast thrust caught the Russians with... their pants down. Right now it looks like Ukraine is trying to shape the battlefield... trying to get Russia to move men and arms to where they want them to be moved... It might not be as successful as the last two times. But: (A) Their longer range artillery strikes against ammo dumps, command posts, etc... allows them to create logistics/ supply/ maneuverability problems for the Russians. Ukraine will take advantage of that. (B) I don't see where shaping is coming in like the last two times... so it's not obvious to see where they are headed with any kind of certainty, or at least an educated guess. (C) Militarily, I see a few obvious choices: Break the land route to Crimea (by way of Zaporizhzhia to the Sea of Azov (splitting between Melitopol and Mariupol would probably be easiest)); Sweep through eastern Kherson Oblast in order to block the entrance way into Crimea.... (D) As for sending Russian Revolutionaries over the border to cause havoc inside of Russian borders... ?! I think Romad is right: it appears that it might be a novel way to force Russia into pulling invader troops back into Russia proper... essentially shaping the battlefield. And I think that meets your "unconventional" definition G2... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 27, 2023 Share Posted May 27, 2023 remember how various and sundry would quote zero hedge? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 28, 2023 Share Posted May 28, 2023 go go gadget! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 (edited) My first thought. Its win-win. But as that subsides into rationality, imagine thinking this. I don't know how we would react but I doubt it would be to buy Margarita Simonyan an ice cream. Edited May 29, 2023 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Bombing campaign. If they were actually to attempt/ succeed at pulling something like this off. My first choices would be their Syrian naval base and then Sevastopol Naval base. Turkey would object and try to block but I think we should force it (under these particular circumstances). Which is why Putin would never be so stupid as to even considering an attempt like this. They did however, put out an "arrest warrant" for Graham... (Also quite asinine.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Bombing campaign. If they were actually to attempt/ succeed at pulling something like this off. My first choices would be their Syrian naval base and then Sevastopol Naval base. Turkey would object and try to block but I think we should force it (under these particular circumstances). Which is why Putin would never be so stupid as to even considering an attempt like this. They did however, put out an "arrest warrant" for Graham... (Also quite asinine.) The escalation would be very scary for sure. Putin would know it would cost him his life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 6 hours ago, romad1 said: The escalation would be very scary for sure. Putin would know it would cost him his life. This would have nothing to do with costing Putin his life. That is dependent entirely on a different set of unrelated factors. Why do you think that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 I just saw an aerial photo that I hadn't seen before - a field with at least 30 dead Wagners scattered about. The interviewer asked the military expert why so many men were killed, seemingly out in the open with no cover. His answer: They want the Ukrainians to use up all their ammunition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 That's a known factor. That's why the Russians keep sending human waves at the Ukrainians. To sop up ammunition so their artillery or more experienced troops can try to take advantage. They've been doing that for at least the past 6 months or so... Great military strategy to convey to their soldiers: "Please soak up as many bullets as you can before dying. Spaceba." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 Prigozhin also says that if you die in battle, you will be shipped home in a steel coffin. Sort of like the Dalai Lama telling you that on your deathbed you will achieve total consciousness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: This would have nothing to do with costing Putin his life. That is dependent entirely on a different set of unrelated factors. Why do you think that? If the Russian regime assassinated a US Senator. We would end the Russian regime. This has to be like Kiki Camarena. Edited May 30, 2023 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, romad1 said: If the Russian regime assassinated a US Senator. We would end the Russian regime. This has to be like Kiki Camarena. That's not even close to any kind of given... They do still have nukes... you know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said: That's not even close to any kind of given... They do still have nukes... you know. By which I mean we have nukes as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 1 hour ago, romad1 said: By which I mean we have nukes as well. And your nukes probably still work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: That's not even close to any kind of given... They do still have nukes... you know. So, not to get all shoe-slammy-on the table but I do think we need to make clear to Vladdy that anything involving killing a US politician would be beyond a thick red line. We are funding a proxy war that has significantly diminished his regime at this point. Not sure exactly how to draw that red line at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 well now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 30, 2023 Author Share Posted May 30, 2023 10 hours ago, romad1 said: If the Russian regime assassinated a US Senator. We would end the Russian regime. This has to be like Kiki Camarena. If the Russian regime assassinated a US senator, they would set it up circumstantially to create enough doubt about its provenance that we could not really be sure it was actually them and not some weirdly convenient coincidence, and then we would definitely have a real decision to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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