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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Russian State forces fortifying entrance routes to Moscow. Sounds like this so far relatively bloodless rebellion is not going to be bloodless for too much longer. 

IDK, this feels more like Kabul 2021 where the insurgents just kept outkicking their coverage and the fall happened much sooner than expected.

It really all depends on the will of Russian forces closer to Moscow... 

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1 minute ago, Crazy Cat Gentleman said:

Although I have to say that it doesn't seem like Prigozhin is coming for Pootie himself, just the MoD. But I guess we'll see.

These are all bad guys - no good guys to be found.

I do imagine that some of the resentment that Prigozhin is tapping into has to do with the aimless nature of how Putin and MOD have continually fed Russians into this unwinnable meat grinder of a war. 

Seems like there is a best case scenario that involves a reassessment of that conflict. But I wouldn't trust any of these guys lol

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Prigozhin is certainly a bad actor. The thing is that it's not really clear what he wants. Early statements were to the effect that he wanted to clean out the MoD so Russia could *continue* the war more effectively, and that Putin himself was a victim of MoD incompetence and misinformation. That was before we heard from Putin and it was unclear whether this was some 3D chess level ploy of his to re-create a more pliant defence establishment. But Putin made it clear this morning that whatever green lights he's giving Prigozhin in the past he wants him stopped now.

So what is Prigozhin? He's not an ideological revolutionary, he's not a freedom fighter/reformer. He is a creep, but what else? He's looking to me like the dog that may catch the UPS truck. What's he going to do with it? Does he even know?

Edited by gehringer_2
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22 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Very interesting reports of a Ukrainian cross river operation in Kherson.  More than a few tanks ferried across the river.  

Thunder run into Crimea or recce in force…

They've also swarmed into Bakhmut I'm hearing...

After all that hard work and dead (mostly convicts) Wagnerites and some Russian soldiers to achieve such a victory...

And to lose it so quickly right back...

How sad.

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"from the sublime to the ridiculous is but a step"

Regardless, if Prigozhin is simply allowed to return the status quo ante - the civil defense panic around Moscow and Putin's pledge to make all the rebels pay leaves him looking like a cockolded fool. Not to mention a slight issue of several aircraft apparently downed by Wagner forces yesterday.

Putin now playing Henry II to Prigozhin's Beckett: "Will no one rid me of this troublesome priest/(read warlord)?"

Any way you slice it, Russian stability has taken another notch downward.

Edited by gehringer_2
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