Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, pfife said:

paywalled

used up your freebies, eh?

[pfife]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

used up your freebies, eh?

I must have, I don't see the button to continue for free

[romad1]

Unfortunately, until this actually impacts the parents of boys from Moscow and St Petersburg, this will continue

 

[chasfh]

I don’t think the parents of soldiers would have the same pressuring effect on Putin as they would on an American president ex. Trump. 

[romad1]

21 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think the parents of soldiers would have the same pressuring effect on Putin as they would on an American president ex. Trump. 

Reasonable.  A couple of things make the Russia watchers think its actually a concern for Vladdie. 

The first is the antecedent of the Soviet war in Afghanistan which played a significant role in the downfall of the Soviet Union.  The other is that he is actually manipulating mobilization to avoid big pulls from the two big metros of St Pete and Moscow specifically to avoid having those two populations impacted.  

Russia's organizational military DNA is shambolic and chaotic only overcome by sending masses of men into the fray at huge costs.  But, they do have breaking points.  They did in WWI.  The disasters can be put off by controlling the media narrative but social media appears to be much more open in post-Soviet Russia -- they run Telegram for example -- that people like Navalny have a relatively easy reach into the homes of the switched-on urban types.

The last item is the example of Prigozhin.  His people are out there and angry about the casualties, the MOD's craptacular running of the War. 

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, romad1 said:

Reasonable.  A couple of things make the Russia watchers think its actually a concern for Vladdie. 

The first is the antecedent of the Soviet war in Afghanistan which played a significant role in the downfall of the Soviet Union.  The other is that he is actually manipulating mobilization to avoid big pulls from the two big metros of St Pete and Moscow specifically to avoid having those two populations impacted.  

Russia's organizational military DNA is shambolic and chaotic only overcome by sending masses of men into the fray at huge costs.  But, they do have breaking points.  They did in WWI.  The disasters can be put off by controlling the media narrative but social media appears to be much more open in post-Soviet Russia -- they run Telegram for example -- that people like Navalny have a relatively easy reach into the homes of the switched-on urban types.

The last item is the example of Prigozhin.  His people are out there and angry about the casualties, the MOD's craptacular running of the War. 

the other thing is that 15% of Russia's population is in Moscow/StP. People talk about Russia's population advantage over Ukraine, but it you are trying to exempt 15% of your population from service, they lose a chunk of that advantage, plus the general health and educational quality of recruits from the hinterlands is also lower.

[romad1]

First use of ATACMS was done by surprise and supposedly junked a bunch of attack helicopters on the ground

 

[Tigeraholic1]

Little more on that. Game changer

 

 

 

[romad1]

this can’t be real

 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

this can’t be real

 

They have the wrong background colors. 

It should be white (on top) blue (middle) and red (bottom).

That would be more accurate.

[1984Echoes]

Here Vladdy, let me help you out:

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[romad1]

38 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Here Vladdy, let me help you out:

 

 

 

I kinda think it was the organizers putting him in his place as the groveling junior partner to China.  The PRC government can be some mean SOBs.

[1984Echoes]

I wanted to be more explicit...

[1984Echoes]

Turkey’s Erdogan Backs Sweden NATO Membership After Long Delay

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-erdogan-backs-sweden-nato-153334096.html

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[romad1]

24 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Turkey’s Erdogan Backs Sweden NATO Membership After Long Delay

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-erdogan-backs-sweden-nato-153334096.html

 

 

Might be a good thing in a way that Iran is presenting itself as a villain in this moment 

[romad1]

 

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, romad1 said:

Might be a good thing in a way that Iran is presenting itself as a villain in this moment 

Jesus, we totally had those guys in a box and Trump let them out.

[romad1]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Jesus, we totally had those guys in a box and Trump let them out.

Well, he was only following orders. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Well, he was only following orders. 

He had a lot of company about Iran even before he polluted the scene—people whose motivations are honest and therefore manipulable.

[1984Echoes]

On 10/23/2023 at 7:35 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Turkey’s Erdogan Backs Sweden NATO Membership After Long Delay

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-erdogan-backs-sweden-nato-153334096.html

 

This still has to pass Turkey's legislature and then...

Hungary is still playing ****ing games with this and they also have not passed Sweden's admission through their legislation. Their government says yes, their legislature says... nothing, so far.

Proposal: Hungary's authoritarianism and still-boot-licking of Russia/ Putin is also vexing NATO and the EU... so, solution: England/ Germany/ US (whomever) propose to kick Hungary out of NATO and add Sweden. Hungary can not vote on getting kicked out of NATO so only all other countries aside from them can vote on this measure. I don't think this measure would even need to come to a vote as I think the Proposal itself will move Hungary off their asses and do a swift approval of Sweden's accession into NATO.

However, if it actually did come to a vote anyways, I wouldn't be opposed to holding that vote, nor would I cry over Hungary's expulsion. The reality is that Poland and Turkey would vote to NOT expel Hungary... but I think even HAVING this vote would send a HUGE message(s) to everyone in NATO: Quit ****ing around with Putin. Quit ****ing around with anti-democratic authoritarianism. And get your ****ing priorities straight. 

Just my 2 cents.

[romad1]

Rumors of Putin's death are laughable.  Wish it were true.

Also, Hamas invited to Moscow.  Hmmm... Israel can suspend all flights between it and Russia now.

[romad1]

He's silly and malevolent wrt a great many things but on this he has been good

 

[ewsieg]

I have not heard a lot out of Ukraine in terms of the war in the last month or two.  I think by this time we can concede the counter-offense was not successful, at least in terms of reclaiming land.  

I saw an article yesterday saying the average age of the Ukrainian fighter is now 43.  Not sure if that just means so many older man volunteered it skewed that number, but that sounds concerning.

I know the pro-Zelensky argument is to just give more to them, but we've given them a lot and we still are giving more.  Do we just allow this to be a forever war because it's a cost effective way to drain the Russian army as well as other Russian ally countries now helping supply it?

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

I have not heard a lot out of Ukraine in terms of the war in the last month or two.  I think by this time we can concede the counter-offense was not successful, at least in terms of reclaiming land.  

I saw an article yesterday saying the average age of the Ukrainian fighter is now 43.  Not sure if that just means so many older man volunteered it skewed that number, but that sounds concerning.

I know the pro-Zelensky argument is to just give more to them, but we've given them a lot and we still are giving more.  Do we just allow this to be a forever war because it's a cost effective way to drain the Russian army as well as other Russian ally countries now helping supply it?

The recent news was the Russians counter attacking and taking losses. TBF, I don't think many analysts thought the Ukrainians could dislodge the dug in Russians without effective air power and the long range weapons to destroy Russian rear guard supply lines. The miscalculation was how slow the US would be to supply either. US 'pacing' has added another year, or possible more, to the war - probably unnecessarily.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The recent news was the Russians counter attacking and taking losses. TBF, I don't think many analysts thought the Ukrainians could dislodge the dug in Russians without effective air power and the long range weapons to destroy Russian rear guard supply lines. The miscalculation was how slow the US would be to supply either. US 'pacing' has added another year, or possible more, to the war - probably unnecessarily.

To finish the thought, it's hard to dismiss the notion that the Biden admin is deliberately acting to drag out this war and achieve the maximum possible bleed-out of the Putin Regime.