gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: Putin won't suffer personally from the sanctions, so I doubt that he will be deterred by them. They have been part of his calculation all along, and he doesn't care about hardships for other Russians. And he knows this with absolute certainty: the United States will not enter a shooting war over Ukraine under any circumstances, no matter what he does. If the sanctions cause enough dissatisfaction in the population to weaken his grip on power, he would notice that. But how likely is that to occur? everybody's got constituencies. The thing about a tyrant is that their hold on power may be absolute, right up until it's not. That said, Putin looks as well ensconced as ever. Edited February 23, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: everybody's got constituencies. The thing about a tyrant is that their hold on power may be absolute, right up until it's not. That said, Putin looks as well ensconced as ever. this will help him unite people behind a common enemy. all the russian propaganda is stirring things up. it will help in the short term. if it turns into afghanistan 2.0 it wont help in the long run. but i dont think that's likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, buddha said: but we aint fightin' russia and we probably aint arming ukraine either unless its done through some under the table proxy. It depends on how it goes. If there is a credible resistance left standing after an invasion I think you can count on there being western/US arms going to them under the cover of plausible deniability but undoubtedly unwritten somewhere deep in the bowels of the CIA/DOD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, buddha said: its valid because of the constraints on the us's ability (especially the us military's ability) to positively influence events in other countries. we try this time and time again and convince ourselves that every situation is the nazis and that we must act to protect or defend X or else its munich all over again. we'll just give them a democracy and vote and it will be all good! Ukraine already has a democracy and vote. And wants that democracy and vote. The issue, literally the only reason this conflict is happening, is that the leader of Russia, who fancies himself a modern day Tsarist, can't accept that. We aren't the main player and driving this, Russia is. So it seems that the Iraq comparison falls on them, not us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It depends on how it goes. If there is a credible resistance left standing after an invasion I think you can count on there being western/US arms going to them under the cover of plausible deniability but undoubtedly unwritten somewhere deep in the bowels of the CIA/DOD. Spot on. Theres also the matter of our NATO allies that are former Republics or are bordering Russia/Belarus... if we do all this work to unify NATO to only turn around and just accept a subjugated Ukraine, that seems kinda counterproductive. I dont think there's a scenario where NATO will ever accept a subjugated Ukraine as legitimate. And I would imagine the aid will keep pouring in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Ukraine already has a democracy and vote. And wants that democracy and vote. The issue, literally the only reason this conflict is happening, is that the leader of Russia, who fancies himself a modern day Tsarist, can't accept that. We aren't the main player and driving this, Russia is. So it seems that the Iraq comparison falls on them, not us russia/ukraine is much different than iraq/us. the calls for the us to "do something" and use our military proactively in the ukraine to "help the ukrainians" are misplaced. if we want to take advantage we should do what were doing and use this to shore up the atlantic alliance with no illusions that we are helping one side in the ukraine over another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, buddha said: russia/ukraine is much different than iraq/us. Because? At the end of the day, its one country invading another that does not want to be invaded. Seems like more of a parallel than anything involving us. Edited February 23, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Spot on. Theres also the matter of our NATO allies that are former Republics or are bordering Russia/Belarus... if we do all this work to unify NATO to only turn around and just accept a subjugated Ukraine, that seems kinda counterproductive. I dont think there's a scenario where NATO will ever accept a subjugated Ukraine as legitimate. And I would imagine the aid will keep pouring in we accepted a subjugated ukraine for 50 years, why wouldnt they "accept" it again? they certainly will. just like they accepted a subjugated georgia and a belarus that does whatever moscow wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Because? At the end of the day, its one country invading another that does not want to be invaded. Seems like more of a parallel than anything involving us. because of geography, because of centuries of history, because of alliances and former alliances. not parallel at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, buddha said: we accepted a subjugated ukraine for 50 years, why wouldnt they "accept" it again? they certainly will. just like they accepted a subjugated georgia and a belarus that does whatever moscow wants. OK. I understand the skepticism, but am open to the idea that this is much different. Particularly based on the interest that our NATO allies in the Baltics and Poland have. As well as the unity that is currently being shown by NATO/EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, buddha said: russia/ukraine is much different than iraq/us. the calls for the us to "do something" and use our military proactively in the ukraine to "help the ukrainians" are misplaced. if we want to take advantage we should do what were doing and use this to shore up the atlantic alliance with no illusions that we are helping one side in the ukraine over another. I'm more with MTU that the situations are quite different. The similarity is that in each case we have a western leaning leadership claiming all they need to stand up is our support, but we can't judge the truth of that claim with much accuracy. In Iraq it was completely false, in Ukraine? Who knows? Where things are very much different is that there was a deep unresolved contradiction at the heart of our Iraq intervention that US policy simply ignored/missed/misunderstood, which was that while a western leaning Sunni political elite urged us to enter, our entry was predicated on establishing a democratic state - one that by definition could not fail to result in the Shia majority displacing the Sunni from long held political power, and engendering the inevitable civil war that in fact followed. So the failure of our Iraqi enterprise (or least the vagary of anything one could call success) was baked in from the get go because we were pursuing a policy that was blind to a fundamental reality on the ground we were entering. None of the above speaks to who is right about Ukraine, but it is why it is not a very comparable situation. Ukraine in not a nation with a long suppressed religious majority, which was the single most determinative fact in Iraq. Edited February 23, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, buddha said: because of geography, because of centuries of history, because of alliances and former alliances. not parallel at all. Really all that matters is that, for 30 years, Ukraine has been an independent country. And they want to remain that way, Russia doesn't want them to. In terms of how an invasion will play out, that's kinda the field of play. The history and "sphere of influence" stuff doesn't matter much if the Ukrainian people choose to defend themselves, even if outmatched or forced into guerilla tactics when facing long odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Really all that matters is that, for 30 years, Ukraine has been an independent country. And they want to remain that way, Russia doesn't want them to. In terms of how an invasion will play out, that's kinda the field of play. The history and "sphere of influence" stuff doesn't matter much if the Ukrainian people choose to defend themselves, even if outmatched or forced into guerilla tactics when facing long odds. we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 hours ago, buddha said: which is exactly what will happen. the germans need energy and the russians will provide it. eventually a russian friendly leader will be back in charge of ukraine. If only the Germans had some type of technology, let’s say a technology that is safe, produces energy with minimal carbon footprint, and could be made right in Germany…if only. 6 hours ago, romad1 said: Thank you Donald Obviously Donald didn’t push back, but just him, really? You sound like you think Russia is a threat. The 80’s called, they want their foreign policy back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, ewsieg said: Obviously Donald didn’t push back, but just him, really? You sound like you think Russia is a threat. The 80’s called, they want their foreign policy back. Considering that ROMAD undoubtedly voted for Romney in '12, your snark seems misdirected. Either way, can't speak for others, but I've said a number of times that Romney was right in his focus and emphasis and Obama was wrong in his dismissiveness (although China may still be a larger overall threat). And watching and reading about how Biden views Putin (he's, by quite a large measure, the most Putin-skeptical POTUS of the five that have served during Putin's regime; https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2022/02/22/bidens-putin-reading-list-00010685), some of us may feel it a little more relevant to consider what the future holds and the ways that *he* may differ from his predecessors in how he deals with the threat versus looking to the past and engaging in some political point scoring from statements made 10 years ago. Particularly also given everything that has transpired since (Crimean annexation, Russian hacking and disinformation during 2016, etc.) Edited February 23, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Considering that ROMAD undoubtedly voted for Romney in '12, your snark seems misdirected. Either way, can't speak for others, but I've said a number of times that Romney was right and Obama was wrong (although China may still be a larger overall threat). And watching and reading about how Biden views Putin (he's, by quite a large measure, the most Putin-skeptical POTUS of the five that have served during Putin's regime; https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2022/02/22/bidens-putin-reading-list-00010685), some of us may feel it a little more relevant to consider what the future holds and the ways that *he* may differ from his predecessors in how he deals with the threat versus looking to the past and engaging in some political point scoring from statements made 10 years ago. Particularly also given everything that has transpired since (Crimean annexation, Russian hacking and disinformation during 2016, etc.) Biden appears to understand bullies as only the grownup man who as a kid suffered from bullying could. Biden also appears like the kid on his bike who is rallying the other kids in the neighborhood to fight the monsters from the upside down. Meanwhile Donald Trump is the kid who got his first Russian whore at 14 when he was home from bullying the other kids at military school. His historical ties to the Soviet Union are well documented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 hours ago, ewsieg said: If only the Germans had some type of technology, let’s say a technology that is safe, produces energy with minimal carbon footprint, and could be made right in Germany…if only. Germany's stance on nuclear is dumb, no doubt, but my understanding is that most German homes/businesses don't heat their domiciles with electric heat, but rather with natural gas or heating oil. So it's unclear to me that more nuclear development would be an answer here. Probably the best answer, honestly, would be to look to other sellers to help bridge that gap. I've read that discussions have been had to import gas from other sellers, and it could be an area where our own domestic supply could help as well (we are now a net exporter as well!)... but in terms of making Germany (or others) whole, that's gonna be near impossible, but it will force them to adapt and diversify their energy portfolio, which could make them less reliant and hurt Russia in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I've thought this a bit based on his actions and behavior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) Speculation: He's got the long haul covid cognitive issues. He had the heart trouble a year or so ago. Here are some more informed speculations on this https://lansinginstitute.org/2021/09/29/putins-worsening-health-set-to-be-a-determining-factor-in-russias-policy-over-the-next-four-years/ Edited February 23, 2022 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Normally you might think that American working class conservatives would be cheering on Ukraine as a shining example of how an armed civilian population can rise up to repel an invading tyrant. You know, a living modern embodiment of the Founding Father’s wisdom in creating the Second Amendment and stuff like that there. But then you remember, Trump, so, all bets are off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, chasfh said: Normally you might think that American working class conservatives would be cheering on Ukraine as a shining example of how an armed civilian population can rise up to repel an invading tyrant. You know, a living modern embodiment of the Founding Father’s wisdom in creating the Second Amendment and stuff like that there. But then you remember, Trump, so, all bets are off. There are indeed some American pro-gun/professional military contractors (mercs) in Kiev who are touting this very position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: Considering that ROMAD undoubtedly voted for Romney in '12, your snark seems misdirected. Either way, can't speak for others, but I've said a number of times that Romney was right in his focus and emphasis and Obama was wrong in his dismissiveness (although China may still be a larger overall threat). It was snarky, but towards Obama and not ROMAD. Yes though, it was prompted by ROMAD only pointing out Trump. Putin had a sympathetic voice in Trump without a doubt, but it's not like Putin didn't run over Obama. Many pieces went into where we're at today, many even before Obama too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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