romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ewsieg said: It was snarky, but towards Obama and not ROMAD. Yes though, it was prompted by ROMAD only pointing out Trump. Putin had a sympathetic voice in Trump without a doubt, but it's not like Putin didn't run over Obama. Many pieces went into where we're at today, many even before Obama too. Recall the Georgia invasion resulted in a collective WTF? from the W Bush admin. Nobody was ready or had bandwidth to deal with Russia adequately because we were in the first decade of the two decade GWOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, romad1 said: Recall the Georgia invasion resulted in a collective WTF? from the W Bush admin. Nobody was ready or had bandwidth to deal with Russia adequately because we were in the first decade of the two decade GWOT. Exactly... none of Biden's four predecessors handled Putin well when he engaged in incursions in the past. Having said that, if you cannot tell the difference between the foreign policy mistakes of Clinton/Bush/Obama and the absolute slobbering and Russian TP pedaling of Trump, I dont know what to tell ya. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Germany's stance on nuclear is dumb, no doubt, but my understanding is that most German homes/businesses don't heat their domiciles with electric heat, but rather with natural gas or heating oil. So it's unclear to me that more nuclear development would be an answer here. Probably the best answer, honestly, would be to look to other sellers to help bridge that gap. I've read that discussions have been had to import gas from other sellers, and it could be an area where our own domestic supply could help as well (we are now a net exporter as well!)... but in terms of making Germany (or others) whole, that's gonna be near impossible, but it will force them to adapt and diversify their energy portfolio, which could make them less reliant and hurt Russia in the long run. It's not even about more nuclear development, but rather keeping what you have. They have roughly doubled the capacity of their energy grid in the last 20 years and did it on the back of renewables, which is fantastic. But due to Nuclear power being removed, coal and oil usage is down only minimally and natural gas usage is up. It just annoys me that they like to claim a higher morale 'green' policy and then do this crap. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/qa-why-germany-phasing-out-nuclear-power-and-why-now So yes, if we can get Germany to purchase from the US and other US allies, great for our oil companies and bad for Russia, but also tough on those that buy gas in the western hemisphere. Also bad for those that want to decrease carbon emissions. Edited February 23, 2022 by ewsieg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Germany's stance on nuclear is dumb, no doubt, but my understanding is that most German homes/businesses don't heat their domiciles with electric heat, but rather with natural gas or heating oil. So it's unclear to me that more nuclear development would be an answer here. Probably the best answer, honestly, would be to look to other sellers to help bridge that gap. I've read that discussions have been had to import gas from other sellers, and it could be an area where our own domestic supply could help as well (we are now a net exporter as well!)... but in terms of making Germany (or others) whole, that's gonna be near impossible, but it will force them to adapt and diversify their energy portfolio, which could make them less reliant and hurt Russia in the long run. Gas is dangerous is and expensive to ship overseas (port siting, compression costs, ship design). There is some international capacity for overseas gas shipment but I'm not up to speed with whether it would even be enough to supply all of Germany completely - most gas moves via pipeline - much safer and cheaper - which is why Germany depends on Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, romad1 said: Recall the Georgia invasion resulted in a collective WTF? from the W Bush admin. Nobody was ready or had bandwidth to deal with Russia adequately because we were in the first decade of the two decade GWOT. Honestly that wasn't on my mind, but yeah, that was a mess. I was thinking more of W advocating for Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. I guess you could argue in hindsight, if that was done, Russia wouldn't be able to do what they did afterwards, but also, here we are several presidents later and even Ukraine's president was pleading for NATO to simply say yes or no to put that talk to bed just last week. Lot's of what if's. One thing I can say confidently, Putin has always been the constant in the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, ewsieg said: It's not even about more nuclear development, but rather keeping what you have. They have roughly doubled the capacity of their energy grid in the last 20 years and did it on the back of renewables, which is fantastic. But due to Nuclear power being removed, coal and oil usage is down only minimally and natural gas usage is up. It just annoys me that they like to claim a higher morale 'green' policy and than do this crap. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/qa-why-germany-phasing-out-nuclear-power-and-why-now So yes, if we can get Germany to purchase from the US and other US allies, great for our oil companies and bad for Russia, but also tough on those that buy gas in the western hemisphere. Again, my understanding is that heating is what drives most of the natural gas consumption in Germany. https://energypost.eu/no-energiewende-without-warmewende-making-germanys-heating-emissions-climate-neutral-nearly/ Quote The task is twofold: increasing the amount of heat coming from renewable sources while reducing energy consumption. Currently, more than 90 percent of Germany’s heating systems are fuelled with oil and natural gas, the BDH estimates. https://www.wingas.com/en/raw-material-natural-gas/heat-from-natural-gas.html Quote Natural gas is the most widely used fuel in Germany to heat homes and water. 75% of the natural gas consumed in Germany is used for these purposes. So, no, it's not as simple as just building more nuclear power plants.... you have to retrofit the way most German's heat their homes. That's not an overnight fix. Of course, now that Russia is doing what it is currently doing and the Germans are putting NS2 on ice, that may be a catalyst for Germany to diversify itself energy wise, which in the long run will actually hurt the Russians. 19 minutes ago, ewsieg said: So yes, if we can get Germany to purchase from the US and other US allies, great for our oil companies and bad for Russia, but also tough on those that buy gas in the western hemisphere. Also bad for those that want to decrease carbon emissions. Would you rather they just buy the Russian gas then? Edited February 23, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, ewsieg said: Honestly that wasn't on my mind, but yeah, that was a mess. I was thinking more of W advocating for Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. I guess you could argue in hindsight, if that was done, Russia wouldn't be able to do what they did afterwards, but also, here we are several presidents later and even Ukraine's president was pleading for NATO to simply say yes or no to put that talk to bed just last week. Lot's of what if's. One thing I can say confidently, Putin has always been the constant in the equation. Post cold war triumphalism certainly helped cement Putin's resentments. But to be fair, by 1991 most people didn't see why Russia was not on its own way to becoming Europeanized. The idea wasn't that NATO wouldn't get closer to Russia to threaten it, but to absorb it in a great Euro Kum-by-yah moment. That turns out to have been quite the pipe-dream, but I don't know how hard we can be on that hindsight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I'm totally for Ukraine being in NATO if they are committed to the Rule of Law, a semblance of democracy, and will contribute to the common defense of the alliance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Gas is dangerous is and expensive to ship overseas (port siting, compression costs, ship design). There is some international capacity for overseas gas shipment but I'm not up to speed with whether it would even be enough to supply all of Germany completely - most gas moves via pipeline - much safer and cheaper - which is why Germany depends on Russia. No doubt, there's no way Germany would ever be made whole by an impact on Russian gas. But my understanding is that there have been discussion of ways to help bridge some of the losses that may come from having to impose sanctions on Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Geez, even this guy gets it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, mtutiger said: Geez, even this guy gets it No kidding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is a complete no duh. China Must Back Russia Over Ukraine for Support With Taiwan: Editor (businessinsider.com) China and Russia are not 100% allied but they are moving closer and closer to each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 https://www.wingas.com/en/raw-material-natural-gas/heat-from-natural-gas.html LOL - this article refers to something they call a Gas Absorption Heat Pump. In the US we used to call that a gas fired Ammonia absorption air conditioner. Because it was apparently some kind of model, my house had one when it was built (~1960). It had been abandoned in place by the time I bought it. I eventually put a normal electric compression AC unit on the pad. But the only way I figured out what I had was that I knew a little about them because I had an uncle who used to work on commercial units, which were once common in the US (they were obsoletely by modern turbo compressor units). The issue with these units is that they are mechanically complex (thus expensive at small scale) and there is enough ammonia in them to kill you if it leaks out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is a day old but still essentially accurate. I do believe that only Ukrainian battlefield success defined as survival as a force in being for as long as possible with a viable supply corridor to the West for more ammo, medical support etc. is what will eventually bring Putin down. As in end his regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Maybe Dick is going to come back in from the wilderness? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Geez, even this guy gets it If I had to bet $1000 on whether Dick Morris was dead or alive I would not have placed the bet because I wasn't sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, oblong said: If I had to bet $1000 on whether Dick Morris was dead or alive I would not have placed the bet because I wasn't sure. Yup, that's a name I hadn't heard in forever. Reminds me of a buddy informing me about a celebrity death recently. "Ivan Reitman died today", followed up shortly with: "In other news, Ivan Reitman was alive as of yesterday" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Not an outcome Putin's buddies like. Why did you create this business crisis for us Vladdie? We could do so much better with someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, romad1 said: Not an outcome Putin's buddies like. Why did you create this business crisis for us Vladdie? We could do so much better with someone else. That's kinda why I don't get how people just assume that Russia can just wait this out and get all that business back.... certainly Europe will remain a big customer for Russian gas, but if this conflagration accelerates the EU's move away from natural gas to other forms of energy, doesn't that cost them money in the long run? Don't they make less money than they would have had they just stuck with the status quo and not pursued this current course of action? We've all probably seen enough mob movies and shows to know that "the families" don't make money when a war is going on.... this is a good example of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, romad1 said: I'm totally for Ukraine being in NATO if they are committed to the Rule of Law, a semblance of democracy, and will contribute to the common defense of the alliance. I'm with that too. But they have territorial integrity issues, since 2014 (I'm not going to count Crimea, just Donbas... was that 2015 not 2014?); and they still have corruption issues that are unacceptable to EU and NATO standards. Those are the deal-breakers that prevent Ukraine membership. I mean, maybe pissing off Putin is also an issue that prevents that from happening... it's just never been uttered out loud as that though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, 1984Echoes said: I'm with that too. But they have territorial integrity issues, since 2014 (I'm not going to count Crimea, just Donbas... was that 2015 not 2014?); and they still have corruption issues that are unacceptable to EU and NATO standards. Those are the deal-breakers that prevent Ukraine membership. I mean, maybe pissing off Putin is also an issue that prevents that from happening... it's just never been uttered out loud as that though... Wars can create the furnace that solidifies nationhood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, romad1 said: This is a day old but still essentially accurate. I do believe that only Ukrainian battlefield success defined as survival as a force in being for as long as possible with a viable supply corridor to the West for more ammo, medical support etc. is what will eventually bring Putin down. As in end his regime. Yeah... I don't think they're considering the true impact of yanking Russia out of SWIFT, denying all forms of American technology to Russia... these are not non-impactful events. Russian economy will get absolutely hammered, that HAS to change the balance scale in Putin's thinking somewhat, especially if there is concerted pressure from the Russian oligarchs. I don't agree with Drezner's general statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 55 minutes ago, mtutiger said: And this is the EU's one big hammer against Russia. Moreso than any other tool they have. More than anything, drop their need for Russian gas in a huge way and... As a petrostate, Russia gets hammered and doesn't really have too many other economic fallback options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 My brother had a paid subscription to this and Soldier Of Fortune magazine when we were teenagers. Seems fitting now. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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