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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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49 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What are the odds this sinks the Russian economy into a full-scale depression long-term because they overextend themselves and the Ruble crashes completely?

I think Putin has an unlimited source of financing in Xi, based on their meeting in Beijing a couple of weeks ago.  Xi loves to lend people money, usually for infrastructure, so that when inevitably they can't service the debt he takes over the asset, for example the railroads that will make up the new Silk Road.  Also, China will step up and sell Putin all of the goods that western embargos are denying him (and lend him the money to buy them).  So I don't think that financing is an issue that Putin is worried about, or shortages.

Does Xi have unlimited resources?  No he doesn't.  But he doesn't care about the long-term consequences any more than Putin does.

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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

This feels like it spun out on its wheels of historical inaccuracy.

Does someone think the US doesn't help its allies?

No of course that is not what I am saying.  Thanks to FDR the US was of enormous help to the Allies from the years 1939 to 1942, supplying war materials, that is obvious to anyone.  Yes, it helped its Allies. FDR would have wanted to do more, certainly. 

I merely made the simple observation that if the US enters an armed conflict because a friend or ally has been invaded, it will be the first time, because congressional approval was never previously attained in either 1914 (might not have been sought) or especially 1939, and I don't see any historical inaccuracy there.  I am hoping that it is attained this time if a NATO country is invaded. I have been forced to back off a little on Kuwait.  It wasn't intended to offend anyone who wasn't there at the time, it is simply a very common observation.

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7 hours ago, ewsieg said:

This is trending on Twitter.  Rumors that a single Ukraine fighter took down 6 Russian jets.  No idea if it’s real, I’m rooting him on regardless.

So, I love the story.  Refer to the story of the Angel of Mons from WWI for the likelihood that this is real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angels_of_Mons

What is excellent is that the Ukrainian Air Force is stopping Russian air dominance.

If Ukraine can put a lid on its key infrastructure and strategic sites they can win.

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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

So, I love the story.  Refer to the story of the Angel of Mons from WWI for the likelihood that this is real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angels_of_Mons

What is excellent is that the Ukrainian Air Force is stopping Russian air dominance.

If Ukraine can put a lid on its key infrastructure and strategic sites they can win.

Is there an Intelligence belief that Ukraine can in fact win this?  I've been happy to see some feel good stories, but I assumed the end result was inevitable.  I have just been hoping for a good showing from Ukraine to help with citizen morale which could subsequently force an occupation if Russia wants to stay in control.  More or less an Afghanistan style conflict that would hurt them long term.

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Is there an Intelligence belief that Ukraine can in fact win this?  I've been happy to see some feel good stories, but I assumed the end result was inevitable.  I have just been hoping for a good showing from Ukraine to help with citizen morale which could subsequently force an occupation if Russia wants to stay in control.  More or less an Afghanistan style conflict that would hurt them long term.

A win is defined as Ukraine remaining an army in the field and a resistance in any place Russia has occupied.  Actual battlefield victory will require a lot more time and resources. 

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2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

A win is defined as Ukraine remaining an army in the field and a resistance in any place Russia has occupied.  Actual battlefield victory will require a lot more time and resources. 

Ok.  I'm not going to lie, for a second I took a few comments you made and started to wonder if Ukraine could outright push Russia back.  This clarifies and is unfortunately, along the lines of what I had thought.

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5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Ok.  I'm not going to lie, for a second I took a few comments you made and started to wonder if Ukraine could outright push Russia back.  This clarifies and is unfortunately, along the lines of what I had thought.

So early.  The actual professional intel people looking specifically at this stuff (not me) are paid to be rational, cold and not emotionally invested.  

I'm totally invested in the passion of Ukraine. 

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10 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Is there an Intelligence belief that Ukraine can in fact win this?  I've been happy to see some feel good stories, but I assumed the end result was inevitable.  I have just been hoping for a good showing from Ukraine to help with citizen morale which could subsequently force an occupation if Russia wants to stay in control.  More or less an Afghanistan style conflict that would hurt them long term.

I think the expectation is still that a Russian military victory is inevitable (presuming that said military doesn't revolt). The hope is that Ukraine can make their victory as painful as possible, with the idea that Russian citizens won't tolerate sustained heavy casualties that will be hard to keep concealed. This would force Putin to have to abandon the occupation to save himself domestically.

This also presumes that Putin's hold on power in Russia isn't so tight that he can get away with atrocities against his own people if that's what it would take for him to achieve his goals.

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7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

This situation in Ukraine is distracting us from the real atrocities and tyranny happening in Canada. 

Canada ended that by freezing the bank accounts of everyone involved in honking horns at all hours of the day and night.  Yet we can't get Germany and Italy to back similar measures as Russia invades a sovereign democracy in their backyard.

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