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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

fascinating 

this is the continuation of a long story with many chapters. For instance, when the Bolsheviks took control after the October revolution, they demanded allegiance from the Armenian Patriarch in Yerevan as condition for not destroying the church in the Armenian SSR. In response to his capitulation, the Armenian diaspora set up a new church in exile with a Patriarch in NYC. I don't know this story but in fragments of memory but apparently there was even an assassination or attempt at one carried out in NYC in the 30's - I think of a representative of the co-opted Bolshevik church. (If you wondered why a community like Detroit would have two separate Armenian Orthodox churches, Southfield and Dearborn, there is your answer.) But in any case, there is no doubt that from the beginning Putin has seen his re-rehabilitation of Orthodox church after its general suppression under communism as a significant tool of his politics. The recognition of the national Ukrainian Church by the Greeks was fairly big news when it happened and Putin was PO'd at the time and the article is surely spot on  that it's just one more thing that sticks in his craw. 

What the article misses however, is that even he takes Kyiv, the Church may decide to go into exile, like the Armenian church did. Putin would be left in possession of the architecture, while still losing the soul of the institution.

Edited by gehringer_2
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I have an observation that my colleagues and I shared today.   Has anyone seen any reference to UAVs on either side?   If so, its escaped my very extensive review of available information.   The US government armed the first UAV in like 1996.  The use of uavs in the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia conflict was DECISIVE and you would think Russia would have learned that lesson.

There are many possible reasons.  I have a couple of technical reasons I cannot share here.   The modern warfare dog that didn't bark thus far. 

Edited by romad1
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Rubio is correct that something is off with Putin, but he’s been off for a long time.  Putin has been waiting to make his move for some time.  He took Crimea under weak foreign policy during the Obama years and is now moving on Ukraine under an even weaker US administration.  This is why national security is the most important issue we ever face as a country.  If we don’t have national security we don’t have to worry about the rest of the little things because we won’t have a country.

Ukraine might not be the “big” problem.  It could very well be the start of a much larger one.  You probably caught it in the news yesterday but Putin has threatened Sweden and Finland with the same fate as Ukraine if they join NATO.  He is also telling NATO countries to remove their troops from certain countries.  Putin is challenging the US like never before and that’s because we have extremely weak leadership.

China will be next to challenge the US.  The writing is on wall with their vote in the UN yesterday.  With their vote to abstain condemning the Russian aggression shows where they stand.  They should have just voted in favor of Russia because that’s what they did by abstaining.  By the way, the UN is a joke when one country can veto something that every other country votes for.  The vote yesterday was shot down with a single vote from Russia.  Why the hell was Russia even allowed a vote?

For all of you that think this is a Democrat vs. Republican issue you should think again.  This is about a very weak administration not only getting tested but getting their asses handed to them.  Putin is making a statement to Biden and pretty much telling him to take a knee. There are plenty of Democrats and Republicans who have and can stand up to Putin.  Biden isn’t one of them.

This isn’t all Biden’s fault either.  It’s the fault of the Democrat party for running him and the people that voted for him that thought a demented and senile man could lead the free world.  At least we don’t have mean tweets anymore. 

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10 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The other story about soldiers asking for food and dry clothes makes me wonder, is it to desert the Army, or to slip undercover in civilian clothes and continue to cause mayhem?

Methinks we don't know the answer to that just yet...

I wonder how easy or difficult is it for a Russian to mimic a Ukrainian accent? Russia is a big country and I would guess there’s a wide variation of accents, particularly influenced by decades of influx of comrades from nearby client Soviet states which have their own languages. That would surely influence the way they speak Russian.

Assuming Russian soldiers come from all over Russia, how likely is it that an undercover Russian soldier can consistently fool all the Ukrainians around him with his attempt at a local accent? I myself can tell someone is Canadian by the way they speak, pretty much thanks to growing up with channel 9, but even so, I probably couldn’t effectively fake a Canadian accent to literally save my life.

And this doesn’t even contemplate local accent variations within Ukraine itself. If a young male somebody I’ve never seen before shows up in my neighborhood speaking Ukrainian with a weird accent that kind of sounds like it comes from another part of the country, wouldn’t that be suspicious?

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9 hours ago, romad1 said:

I have an observation that my colleagues and I shared today.   Has anyone seen any reference to UAVs on either side?   If so, its escaped my very extensive review of available information.   The US government armed the first UAV in like 1996.  The use of uavs in the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia conflict was DECISIVE and you would think Russia would have learned that lesson.

There are many possible reasons.  I have a couple of technical reasons I cannot share here.   The modern warfare dog that didn't bark thus far. 

This is the kind of thing I was alluding to in my post speculating what might happen next if ground invasion starts faltering, or gets too bogged down.

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24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I wonder how easy or difficult is it for a Russian to mimic a Ukrainian accent? Russia is a big country and I would guess there’s a wide variation of accents, particularly influenced by decades of influx of comrades from nearby client Soviet states which have their own languages. That would surely influence the way they speak Russian.

Assuming Russian soldiers come from all over Russia, how likely is it that an undercover Russian soldier can consistently fool all the Ukrainians around him with his attempt at a local accent? I myself can tell someone is Canadian by the way they speak, pretty much thanks to growing up with channel 9, but even so, I probably couldn’t effectively fake a Canadian accent to literally save my life.

And this doesn’t even contemplate local accent variations within Ukraine itself. If a young male somebody I’ve never seen before shows up in my neighborhood speaking Ukrainian with a weird accent that kind of sounds like it comes from another part of the country, wouldn’t that be suspicious?

You should read Charm School by Nelson Demille.  Its a very good book and considered a work of fiction but its based off a lot facts.  I don't think Soviets has ever admitted to having these schools but its very likely they did during the Soviet days.  Since Putin is an old school communist I wouldn't be surprised if they are still doing something similar.

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8 minutes ago, Archie said:

You should read Charm School by Nelson Demille.  Its a very good book and considered a work of fiction but its based off a lot facts.  I don't think Soviets has ever admitted to having these schools but its very likely they did during the Soviet days.  Since Putin is an old school communist I wouldn't be surprised if they are still doing something similar.

I’m not sure how much we should take the word of a considered work of fiction, although I would agree that special forces are likely to be trained in that kind of fake accent subterfuge. I could see that being applied to the situation mtutiger brought up, the Russians who were undercover as Ukrainian police at the checkpoint.

I tend to believe that’s a minute percentage of the total armed force. The subsequent post suggesting Russian army regulars might be stealing clothes from houses to go undercover and cause mayhem among the civilians got me thinking about whether the average Russian could pull off a local Ukrainian accent without any special training. Unless they’ve all been special-trained in faking accents as part of their regular training the past few years. That’s possible, I suppose.

Edited by chasfh
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