romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: I have this hope, that I know is not realistic, that Putin ends up like Ceasescu. Just remember it took us 20 days to get to Baghdad and how much longer before we had Sadaam. And the fight is going in the other direction. its currently more likely that Z dies before P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy Cat Gentleman Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: this was remarkable. She was not aware that there was a war. He was completely befuddled by their attack into Ukraine. It is propaganda but it was excellently deployed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, romad1 said: Just remember it took us 20 days to get to Baghdad and how much longer before we had Sadaam. And the fight is going in the other direction. its currently more likely that Z dies before P One thing I've been wondering about is, what happens if Zelenskyy does die? I have heard of no other names among that leadership. If it's a top-heavy leadership, then cutting off the head would do much more damage than if leadership responsibility is being diffused downward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, romad1 said: Just remember it took us 20 days to get to Baghdad and how much longer before we had Sadaam. And the fight is going in the other direction. its currently more likely that Z dies before P I'm not saying it happens quickly, but I don't get the sense that the Russian people or even the military is very happy about this. Russia's a big place and Putin probably has 20 bunkers to hide in. It all depends on if somehow the military turns on him. Nicolae was certain his military wouldn't turn on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, romad1 said: this was remarkable. She was not aware that there was a war. He was completely befuddled by their attack into Ukraine. It is propaganda but it was excellently deployed. I read a report that Ukraine is emailing the families of POWs to tell them their children are OK and go fight Putin if you want them to get back home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, romad1 said: Just remember it took us 20 days to get to Baghdad and how much longer before we had Sadaam. And the fight is going in the other direction. its currently more likely that Z dies before P I noted that myself somewhere up thread and it can't be forgotten. But on the other hand, we weren't under serious time pressure of a growing international counter-response and were at least trying not to kill indiscriminately. No-one was resupplying Saddam, he was not going to get any stronger and nobody was crashing the US dollar on the folks at home. And at that point we were only fighting the Iraqi army, civilian resistance had not taken root that increased the need to get control and pacify --- so I would guess Putin doesn't have a month to get this over. Given all that, I could see Putin just blowing the whistle at some point when the cost is getting too high and playing for a permanent partition along whatever lines the Russians control. Then comes the 2nd test of Western solidarity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 It has been an interesting day of thoughtful reflection for everyone today. Lots of early lessons learned being absorbed. Russian technical and tactical incompetence do not look to be fixed too easily. Maybe, Russia thinks that one lesson is that is hasn't been brutal enough is a little scary to contemplate. If Belarus decide to invade with whatever they have it might be an ill omen even if its tactically incompetent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I noted that myself somewhere up thread and it can't be forgotten. But on the other hand, we weren't under serious time pressure of a growing international counter-response and were at least trying not to kill indiscriminately. No-one was resupplying Saddam, he was not going to get any stronger and nobody was crashing the US dollar on the folks at home. And at that point we were only fighting the Iraqi army, civilian resistance had not taken root that increased the need to get control and pacify --- so I would guess Putin doesn't have a month to get this over. Given all that, I could see Putin just blowing the whistle at some point when the cost is getting too high and playing for a permanent partition along whatever lines the Russians control. Then comes the 2nd test of Western solidarity. I can see that. He may think he can do that. I don't know if sanctions survive peaceful occupation on the current lines. Germany has too much to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: I'm not saying it happens quickly, but I don't get the sense that the Russian people or even the military is very happy about this. Russia's a big place and Putin probably has 20 bunkers to hide in. It all depends on if somehow the military turns on him. Nicolae was certain his military wouldn't turn on him. I'v seen no confirmation of Vindman's contention that Gerasimov has been removed, but if Putin starts removing General Staff he better have them shot because they would be the vector for a palace coup. Edited February 28, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 My wife's uncle's husband is from the Kyiv area. He has been in the US for probably around 25 years. He still has family around Kyiv, and he has been able to maintain communication so far despite some of the damage that they've had around them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, casimir said: My wife's uncle's husband is from the Kyiv area. He has been in the US for probably around 25 years. He still has family around Kyiv, and he has been able to maintain communication so far despite some of the damage that they've had around them. My colleagues were very pessimistic that Russia would knock out the internet and it would all be dark. Welp, that assumption like others was wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, romad1 said: My colleagues were very pessimistic that Russia would knock out the internet and it would all be dark. Welp, that assumption like others was wrong. The internal logic was all about 'rescuing' the Ukrainians so why you would have to knock out utilities or bomb the cities? Putin is faced now with the reality that he can only conquer Ukraine, not bring it joyously into the Russian bosom. He is probably fine with upping the ante on the carnage, as was done in Georgia, but is the Russian army and populace? Russia may have a tightly controlled press, but even Putin can't keep a hot war in the middle of Europe under a bushel basket when there are millions of families with members on the other side. Edited February 28, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: There is no question about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This is awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) You don't want an actor like Ronald Reagan as president until you need someone to do this https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-sanctions-swift-central-bank/ Quote A video call by the Ukrainian wartime leader prompted jaded European leaders to act Edited February 28, 2022 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 hours ago, romad1 said: It has been an interesting day of thoughtful reflection for everyone today. Lots of early lessons learned being absorbed. Russian technical and tactical incompetence do not look to be fixed too easily. Maybe, Russia thinks that one lesson is that is hasn't been brutal enough is a little scary to contemplate. If Belarus decide to invade with whatever they have it might be an ill omen even if its tactically incompetent. FWIW, I could see Russian technical and tactical incompetence as being something that's been endemic to that country for at least since WWII, and which may have been instrumental in the Soviet Union's demise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This is me totally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, chasfh said: FWIW, I could see Russian technical and tactical incompetence as being something that's been endemic to that country for at least since WWII, and which may have been instrumental in the Soviet Union's demise. We knew that in our brains. We just couldn't trust that. The extrapolation of Putin's savage technical brilliance to his armed forces was a cognitive error. What do we call that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The groundskeepers in Major League would say: "they're shitty". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, romad1 said: We knew that in our brains. We just couldn't trust that. The extrapolation of Putin's savage technical brilliance to his armed forces was a cognitive error. What do we call that. I just had a laugh when i realized what this is: The Halo effect. Hard to attribute a halo to Putin but, yeah...that was it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 9 hours ago, romad1 said: We need this for the United States Yes. That would bankrupt Trump though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Yes. That would bankrupt Trump though. i’m willing to take that chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.