Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[1984Echoes]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

it will be a gradual takeover, like hong kong.  no military invasion.

china doesnt want a direct military confrontation any more than we do.  the biggest risk is a miscalculation or china accidentally hitting the seventh fleet.

and btw, if we went to war with china over taiwan, we would probably lose.  

but it will backfire on china.  next step: rearming japan and moving our supply chains to vietnam.

England basically "owned" Hong Kong. And agreed to hand it over on a timetable, just like we handed over the Panama Canal to Panama... under agreement.

No one "owns" Taiwan, despite all China's whining.

It isn't the same thing.

[romad1]

16 minutes ago, buddha said:

it will be a gradual takeover, like hong kong.  no military invasion.

china doesnt want a direct military confrontation any more than we do.  the biggest risk is a miscalculation or china accidentally hitting the seventh fleet.

and btw, if we went to war with china over taiwan, we would probably lose.  

but it will backfire on china.  next step: rearming japan and moving our supply chains to vietnam.

There is no navy that is stronger than ours.  China does have some other advantages though.    I think it would be insane to go up against the United States for them.  But, Xi isn't a rational actor. 

[romad1]

12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

England basically "owned" Hong Kong. And agreed to hand it over on a timetable, just like we handed over the Panama Canal to Panama... under agreement.

No one "owns" Taiwan, despite all China's whining.

It isn't the same thing.

Good point.  Also, Japan is very, very salty about the island chain that Taiwan is part of.  They are building ships and buying F-35s like hotcakes. 

[buddha]

33 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

England basically "owned" Hong Kong. And agreed to hand it over on a timetable, just like we handed over the Panama Canal to Panama... under agreement.

No one "owns" Taiwan, despite all China's whining.

It isn't the same thing.

well....no one is saying it is the same thing.  but taiwan is an island off of china that has historical ties to china.  china wants it.  china will find a way to get it.

the us is not going to war with china for taiwan.  just like the us did not go to war with russia for eastern europe or the middle east.  if there is conflict with china, it will be of the cold variety.

[buddha]

30 minutes ago, romad1 said:

There is no navy that is stronger than ours.  China does have some other advantages though.    I think it would be insane to go up against the United States for them.  But, Xi isn't a rational actor. 

it would be equally insane for the us to think the seventh fleet could react in time to stop a chinese invasion or that the us population would be willing to spill blood over taiwan.

japan will arm itself with our weapons.  japan is a much different animal historically and culturally than taiwan.

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

it would be equally insane for the us to think the seventh fleet could react in time to stop a chinese invasion or that the us population would be willing to spill blood over taiwan.

japan will arm itself with our weapons.  japan is a much different animal historically and culturally than taiwan.

its not insane to help Taiwan.  Its very sane.  Its called collective security.  

[mtutiger]

I respect and get buddha's position on Ukraine, having said that I really struggle with the fact that it really sucks for the majority of Ukrainians who may want some self determination in who they align with or what alliances they are allowed to form.

The reality is that, despite all the talk about "Russia's sphere of influence", the sizable majority of Ukrainians do not want to be aligned with Russia and want closer ties with the EU. And ultimately, what we are learning is what Ukrainians want really doesn't matter.

Maybe that's an unresolvable problem, but it still sucks regardless.

Edited January 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I respect and get buddha's position on Ukraine, having said that I really struggle with the fact that it really sucks for the majority of Ukrainians who may want some self determination in who they align with or what alliances they are allowed to form.

The reality is that, despite all the talk about "Russia's sphere of influence", the sizable majority of Ukrainians do not want to be aligned with Russia and want closer ties with the EU. And ultimately, what we are learning is what Ukrainians want really doesn't matter.

Maybe that's an unresolvable problem, but it still sucks regardless.

its not a problem for the united states to solve.

[buddha]

6 minutes ago, romad1 said:

its not insane to help Taiwan.  Its very sane.  Its called collective security.  

i said it was insane to think the seventh fleet could respond in a way to stop an invasion of taiwan.

the united states is not the world's policeman.  we should do what we can to help taiwan - and we do.  but go to a hot war with china?  i dont think that will happen.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, buddha said:

its not a problem for the united states to solve.

Again, I understand your perspective. I just think the entire situation sucks. Ukraine shouldn't be forced to be another -stan country if they don't want to be one.

Edited January 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[Archie]

There is no reason for us to go to war to protect Ukraine or Taiwan. It would put us at war with China and Russia which would be catastrophic for the entire world.  I don't think we've have military leaders or political leaders in a long time that could handle a conflict or war like that.  Our current president doesn't even know what day it is so how could he lead a nation through a major event?  Simple answer is he and his administration can't. 

 

[romad1]

55 minutes ago, Archie said:

There is no reason for us to go to war to protect Ukraine or Taiwan. It would put us at war with China and Russia which would be catastrophic for the entire world.  I don't think we've have military leaders or political leaders in a long time that could handle a conflict or war like that.  Our current president doesn't even know what day it is so how could he lead a nation through a major event?  Simple answer is he and his administration can't. 

 

Maybe China and Russia shouldn't start wars then. 

[romad1]

Frankly, anyone who thinks we are saber rattling if we back up our allies missed the period 1945-1989.  

[mtutiger]

33 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Maybe China and Russia shouldn't start wars then. 

Ding Ding Ding.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Ding Ding Ding.

Arch is really aping the Tucker Carlson line which is really the Vlad Putin line, isn't he? 

[Archie]

31 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Frankly, anyone who thinks we are saber rattling if we back up our allies missed the period 1945-1989.  

Ukraine isn't an ally to the US. They aren't in NATO.  The only thing they have done is give Joe's boy a job, that he wasn't qualified for, that paid a lot of money.

[mtutiger]

42 minutes ago, Archie said:

Ukraine isn't an ally to the US. 

Yes they are. And they explicitly want to be closer to the west (ie. us)

There's a fair debate to be had over the degree that we should be involved, but they are an ally by any measure of the word.

Edited January 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yes they are. And they explicitly want to be closer to the west (ie. us)

There's a fair debate to be had over the degree that we should be involved, but they are an ally by any measure of the word.

He's just sad that Ukraine wouldn't help with the quid pro quo on dirt on Biden

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

He's just sad that Ukraine wouldn't help with the quid pro quo on dirt on Biden

Exactly.

Maybe, just maybe, opinions on this conflagration shouldn't be based solely on one's domestic politics.

[mtutiger]

 

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

Snort!

[romad1]

10 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Snort!

i’m borrowing Tuckyo Rose

[gehringer_2]

WRT to Taiwan, the Nationalists who moved there in exile did not represent the indigenous population any more than Mao did. I don't know enough about Taiwan to answer the question as to whether this generation of Taiwanese leadership has actually won the heart of the larger population of if they are still just an aristocratic graft that maintains political control - though maybe in a less corrupt way than Chiang Kai-Shek may have? If the Taiwanese population wants to fight, China will have it's hands full, in the same way as if the Ukrainians don't want the Russians, the Russians will have their hands full. Those factors will make a much bigger difference in the outcome than whatever US posturing precedes any military action by Russia. 

We've learned the hard lesson enough times that just because a Western leaning political class in some nation tells us they are ready to fight to the death if only they have our unqualified support, it doesn't mean we won't find out that their internal support was a mile wide but 1/2" deep.

Edited January 26, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Archie]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Yes they are. And they explicitly want to be closer to the west (ie. us)

There's a fair debate to be had over the degree that we should be involved, but they are an ally by any measure of the word.

I disagree...They are just another leaching country that wants a handout from the US.  If we can't protect our own borders we have no business going to another country to help them with theirs. 

The biggest threat to the US is Iran.  That is where our real foreign problem is.  As soon as they have an opportunity to attack us or get a nuclear weapon we will have a big problem.  There was a report a few weeks ago they are already planning something with operatives in the US.

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, buddha said:

well....no one is saying it is the same thing.  but taiwan is an island off of china that has historical ties to china.  china wants it.  china will find a way to get it.

the us is not going to war with china for taiwan.  just like the us did not go to war with russia for eastern europe or the middle east.  if there is conflict with china, it will be of the cold variety.

Right... I agree with the second part.

But for the first part: you were saying China was going to effect a slow takeover of Taiwan, just like Hong Kong... as if it were a done deal.

I don't think it's a done deal just because China "wants them". 

They might not get what they want.

In fact, I'd love to see the reverse take place... Xi's regime suffer some ignominious defeat (economic/ political/ not military) and Taiwan offer to institute, and implement, a Democratic Reform over mainland China. It will never happen but... you know... dreams of sugar plums and fairies.

Edited January 27, 2022 by 1984Echoes