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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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8 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Too bad he didn't have bone spurs.

Neither bone spurs nor a rich daddy. By the time my dad and his brothers were drafted to fight in Nam they were kicked out of their house by their father and lived in a two bedroom house in Ecorse with their mom and sister. Being rich gets you out of your National Guard duties too.

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16 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Yep, that's what they did to poor people like my dad and his brothers. A poor white kid from Ecorse like my dad who was never going to college at the time got put in the draft and forced enlistment. That's exactly what will happen to these Russian protestors, only they'll skip over the draft part and go right to the enlistment step.

Yeah it was sad, just like today if you come from a wealthy family or even upper middle class you won't get drafted. We talk about segregation of skin color but we also have generations of americans who have not served in the military (Post WWII). They enjoy their freedoms but don't have much action to show for it.....

Edited by Tigeraholic1
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1 hour ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

That’s what I was thinking. How do you force them to fight if they are adamantly against it? Does the Russian military kill them too? That could be just more chaos for them. 

And if you put a gun or a tank in their hands what's to prevent them from turning on their "militaristic captors", otherwise known as their fellow Russian soldiers and commanders?

Another thought that popped in my head was the movie Enemy at the Gates with Jude Law and Ed Harris. With new conscripts, no training, and no weapons (50/50 actually) thrown at German machine guns in Stalingrad...

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20 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Yeah it was sad, just like today if you come from a wealthy family or even upper middle class you won't get drafted. We talk about segregation of skin color but we also have generations of americans who have not served in the military (Post WWII). They enjoy their freedoms but don't have much action to show for it.....

A reminder that it really is about class and caste. Skin color just happens to be one of the proxy shortcuts for many, but white people can signal their own status through behavior and appearance and get hammered if it's the wrong type of either.

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Crazy thought perhaps....

But I wonder if Putin is at a point where he needs the West to start fighting to give him his 'honorable' exit?

Think of the bully that has a knife in his pocket and he picks a fight with someone he thinks is weak.  The weak kid is holding his own and making it very difficult.  The other people watching don't want to get involved because they don't want to get knifed. The bully keeps taunting them to come at him, not because he wants to fight them but because he can then say he only lost because they all ganged up on him.  

 

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

Crazy thought perhaps....

But I wonder if Putin is at a point where he needs the West to start fighting to give him his 'honorable' exit?

Think of the bully that has a knife in his pocket and he picks a fight with someone he thinks is weak.  The weak kid is holding his own and making it very difficult.  The other people watching don't want to get involved because they don't want to get knifed. The bully keeps taunting them to come at him, not because he wants to fight them but because he can then say he only lost because they all ganged up on him.  

 

Interesting thought and analogy. There might be something to this. Maybe there's something second-level diplomats can broach with each other that can lead to the kind of kabuki needed to give Putin his exit with honor, as you say. It depends in part on how much the West is willing to forgive the whole misadventure in the first place, in exchange for regaining the known quantity that was the uneasy stability of pre-invasion detente.

On the other hand, looking for an honorable exit seems to be the thinking of a conventionally rational person, and there have been a lot of reports that especially since the onset of the pandemic, Putin has been not been that. And if that's true, and in light of the drastic things we're trying to do to basically cut Russia's very legs out from under it, it's hard to imagine our side being willing to go back to the square one that existed before this, since it tacitly gives Putin a chance to plan for another day. The West is going to want significant concessions to set this whole episode aside. I'm thinking that a stalemated opponent is unlikely to grant those.

I think you and I both agree that the one thing that's not gonna happen is Putin allowing Russia to slink home with its tail between its legs, having gotten its ass kicked by "an illegitimate state". If he gets backed into a corner and starts lashing out, with the considerable tools at his disposal, then Katy bar the door.

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5 hours ago, romad1 said:

VDV is the airborne troops.  These are the Russian forces that are trying to fight. 

Noticing on my bigger screen at home that these dudes have tactical comms like US armed forces have.   They appear to have the sort of knee protection you need for urban combat.  Their rifles appear to be AK pattern but have after-market composite stocks.  These guys are well equipped.  They appear to be 1st line infantry at least.

 

EDIT: No duh moment.  The original tweet translates as

Quote

Special Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed 10 more enemy BMDs in Gostomel The battle for control of the city of Gostomel continues. As of 6.30 pm, 10 enemy combat vehicles have already been destroyed in the area of the local glass factory. 1/2

 

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think you and I both agree that the one thing that's not gonna happen is Putin allowing Russia to slink home with its tail between its legs, having gotten its ass kicked by "an illegitimate state". If he gets backed into a corner and starts lashing out, with the considerable tools at his disposal, then Katy bar the door.

the only way it ends without the fig lead is if Putin is deposed - and those dynamics are pretty obscure to anyone outside the Kremlin

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3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

if true that could/should invoke a Nato air response. That is an attack on all of Europe.

Not to mention it's a loser's strategy - why you make a mess that could cost billions to fix if you think you will be the paying the bills. Of course you can say that about Putin's whole campaign. Even if he wins, it's a huge loss.

Edited by gehringer_2
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