Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[mtutiger]

lol

[gehringer_2]

 

Getting warmer in Vladdie's kitchen?

Edited March 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

Deflection from escalation?

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Deflection from escalation?

He's going to use every trick in his book.  He won't be able to hide the atrocities this time because he's doing all this to a sympathetic target with charismatic victims.  

 

[romad1]

Heck of a thread for understanding the heavy use of the VDV (the adrenaline junkies I may have mentioned in other posts)

 

[mtutiger]

22 minutes ago, romad1 said:

He's going to use every trick in his book.  He won't be able to hide the atrocities this time because he's doing all this to a sympathetic target with charismatic victims.  

 

Exactly, this is the old playbook.... when he invaded Georgia and Crimea, the world largely moved on. Like then, he wants his cake and eat it too.

The problem here for Vlad is that the breadth and depth of these sanctions are going to be extremely hard to reverse in full. I don't think the old playbook is gonna be all that effective now because the situation is a lot different.

Edited March 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

lol

Standard stuff from an abuser spouse, or bully.

[ewsieg]

In regards to the comments from Putin that mtu posted above, I just did a quick look and didn't see the context.  I'm wondering if he's speaking to an international community or was that directed to Russian friendly nations/states?   If international, that's a great sign.  If just his cronies, it means nothing.

[romad1]

Sorry for another thread.  this was interesting.  Has some warnings about over confidence. 

 

[mtutiger]

48 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

In regards to the comments from Putin that mtu posted above, I just did a quick look and didn't see the context.  I'm wondering if he's speaking to an international community or was that directed to Russian friendly nations/states?   If international, that's a great sign.  If just his cronies, it means nothing.

It's probably intended more for domestic consumption, although I do think he would obviously take the world where he invades without any loss of benefits.

Edited March 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Heck of a thread for understanding the heavy use of the VDV (the adrenaline junkies I may have mentioned in other posts)

 

Whoa, wait, I'm sorry ... Russia lost the war? Is that what this guy is saying? What does he know?

[chasfh]

Why do we think the world is reacting so firmly against the invasion of Ukraine when, as pointed out, Russia invaded Georgia and Crimea, and there was barely a peep. What are some of the differences this time?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

In regards to the comments from Putin that mtu posted above, I just did a quick look and didn't see the context.  I'm wondering if he's speaking to an international community or was that directed to Russian friendly nations/states?   If international, that's a great sign.  If just his cronies, it means nothing.

Great sign how? Are you still taking Putin at his word? Why? Based on what?

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Why do we think the world is reacting so firmly against the invasion of Ukraine when, as pointed out, Russia invaded Georgia and Crimea, and there was barely a peep. What are some of the differences this time?

My guess would be a combination of things:

• This is the third time this is happening (IOW, a pattern has been established), and there is a lot of concern, particularly in Eastern Europe, that this will continue beyond Ukraine and into NATO countries if left without response
• Whereas you could make the case that the invaded populations in Crimea or the separatist parts of Georgia may have viewed invasion as liberation, it appears that there is little to no support domestically in Ukraine for the invasion that is currently taking place.... and it's probable that this extends into the Russian speaking regions of the country as well.
• Ukraine as a whole is much larger (and more strategically important) than either Crimea or Georgia

There are counter viewpoints that would push back on each of these points (Mearsheimer, as buddha has shared, has a different view on what Russia's aims are wrt the first point), but these are all distinctions I see.

Edited March 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

F Trump, F Vlad, F Trumplicans.

[ewsieg]

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Great sign how? Are you still taking Putin at his word? Why? Based on what?

I'm fairly confident his words were for internal consumption so my thoughts are pretty much null and void.  But I'm definitely not taking him at his word, but the last thing I heard about Putin was his call with Macron where he straight up indicated this is not a peacekeeping mission, but rather he was taking it at all costs.

If within a day or two he's now telling international leaders that he feels there needs to be cooperation to return to normal, to me, that would be saying he's looking for a way out.  

[ewsieg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-has-survived-three-assassination-attempts-in-the-past-week/YLJBUVAIHNV53O3G34BWWCNEIY/?c_id=2&objectid=12508870&ref=rss

 

Quote

The Times in the UK reports that mercenaries from the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group and Chechen special forces have both attempted to kill the Ukrainian president in the last week but all three attempts were unsuccessful.

According to reports, the assassination attempts failed thanks to subversive anti-war members within Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), the country's successor to the KGB, who alerted Ukraine officials.

I heard about the Chechen one being subverted due to the FSB, but not the others.  I wonder what likelihood that the FSB really is helping Ukraine with these, or is this American Intelligence being used with the condition that Ukraine needs to say the FSB is helping.  Seems to be that would put a lot of pressure on the FSB internally within Russia.

[gehringer_2]

56 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Why do we think the world is reacting so firmly against the invasion of Ukraine when, as pointed out, Russia invaded Georgia and Crimea, and there was barely a peep. What are some of the differences this time?

Well, the obvious one is that when Europeans look at Ukrainians they see themselves in the mirror - there is a lot of cultural identification there and call it racism if you want, it's still very real. Other factors specific to cases include that historically ties from Crimea to Russia maybe were deeper than ties from Crimea to Ukraine - note the relative quiet in Crimea following the Russian putsch. In the Georgian case, I think there is a view of that part of the world that is at least a bit similar to Middle East, which is that there is still so much tribalism and domestic instability in the trans-caususus that the rest of world basically says a pox on all your houses, if the Russian want the problem, let them take it.....

Another is that with ex-satellites like Poland, Czech Rep, etc being geographically 'next in line' there is a much more obvious threat of next steps than with Russian expansion in the Caucusus or the Crimean Peninsula.

And finally the Ukrainians have done a much better job in the PR/Propaganda dept  - having done a better job gaining the world's attention.

Edited March 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I'm fairly confident his words were for internal consumption so my thoughts are pretty much null and void.  But I'm definitely not taking him at his word, but the last thing I heard about Putin was his call with Macron where he straight up indicated this is not a peacekeeping mission, but rather he was taking it at all costs.

If within a day or two he's now telling international leaders that he feels there needs to be cooperation to return to normal, to me, that would be saying he's looking for a way out.  

I'm not sure I can see it that way at all. There is nothing Putin can say in public that I would dare take at face value, so if we were to hear Putin announcing to international leaders through some public forum that he is looking for a return to some pre-invasion normalcy of "no ill will toward neighbors" and "international cooperation" and "normalized relations", I'm thinking that what he really means is just about anything but.

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'm not sure I can see it that way at all. There is nothing Putin can say in public that I would dare take at face value, so if we were to hear Putin announcing to international leaders through some public forum that he is looking for a return to some pre-invasion normalcy of "no ill will toward neighbors" and "international cooperation" and "normalized relations", I'm thinking that what he really means is just about anything but.

I suppose that for someone trained as a spy, you might assume the view is that to ever speak an unforced truth is to unnecessarily cede possible advantage. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

Notable in that UAE is one of the three Security Council abstainers....

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Well, the obvious one is that when Europeans look at Ukrainians they see themselves in the mirror - there is a lot of cultural identification there and call it racism if you want, it's still very real. Other factors specific to cases include that historically ties from Crimea to Russia maybe were deeper than ties from Crimea to Ukraine - note the relative quiet in Crimea following the Russian putsch. In the Georgian case, I think there is a view of that part of the world that is at least a bit similar to Middle East, which is that there is still so much tribalism and domestic instability in the trans-caususus that the rest of world basically says a pox on all your houses, if the Russian want the problem, let them take it.....

Another is that with ex-satellites like Poland, Czech Rep, etc being geographically 'next in line' there is a much more obvious threat of next steps than with Russian expansion in the Caucusus or the Crimean Peninsula.

And finally the Ukrainians have done a much better job in the PR/Propaganda dept  - having done a better job gaining the world's attention.

While I think some points mts made were fairly cogent (Georgia/Crimea may have been considered within each as more liberation than invasion; Ukraine is larger and thus that much more strategically important), I think what you say here may be a smidge closer to some of the true underlying causes.

As you basically say, Ukraine is considered a white country, fitting comfortably into what the ethnographers of antiquity considered the Aryan world. People respond especially viscerally when they see other people who look like they could be family getting invaded, and that includes America, which still run by Western-European-descended white people despite its multiethnicity.

Ukraine borders a NATO country, which sets up a potential domino effect that you don't get with Georgia.

Because of its location and ethnic makeup, Ukraine is considered to be within the European orbit. Georgia is in Asia, and is considered more like the Middle East.

Ukrainians have also emigrated well as a people. There are over a million Ukrainian ethnics or descendants in America, plus probably another million and a half diaspora in Europe. This, versus only about 15,000 to 20,000 Georgian ethnics or descendants in America, and probably not many more anywhere else outside of Russia.

Also, not for nothing, Trump publicly tried to strong-arm Ukraine on behalf of Russia, and most of the world hate Trump.

I think it all adds up.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Why do we think the world is reacting so firmly against the invasion of Ukraine when, as pointed out, Russia invaded Georgia and Crimea, and there was barely a peep. What are some of the differences this time?

Caught off guard.

Not this time.

And, the parts of Georgia and Ukraine that were previously invaded have a sparse population in comparison, and the capitals/ country were not taken over, just... parts. Russia did not take over Tbilisi, nor Georgia, nor Ukraine (as a whole, previously...).

This is different. The response is different. And the world was ready for this response (this time).

And one last thing: Biden has been a driving force in pulling everyone together for this response. He deserves major, major credit for this response to Russian aggression.

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Also, not for nothing, Trump publicly tried to strong-arm Ukraine on behalf of Russia, and most of the world hate Trump.

I think it all adds up.

Don't forget about Paul Manafort (ie. Yanukovych's former svengali) and his role both in Trump's campaign as well as the effort undertaken to remove the plank about Ukrainian security from the GOP platform.

The evidence is still largely circumstantial, but it points to Trump and the undermining of Ukrainian self-determination being pre-meditated.

Edited March 4, 2022 by mtutiger