Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

... In the Georgian case, I think there is a view of that part of the world that is at least a bit similar to Middle East, which is that there is still so much tribalism and domestic instability in the trans-caususus that the rest of world basically says a pox on all your houses, if the Russian want the problem, let them take it...

I don't believe this has much relevancy.

Certainly not as much as... in 2008, we, as a nation, were a little bit distracted.

With Iraq, hunting for Bin Laden, and an economic crash.

IIRC: Georgia barely registered on our conscience, as we were a bit busy at the time. I remember it in the news. But it was fait accompli before we could even get an opinion out the door. And despite my hyperbole:

IOW - we just were not prepared, at all, to give any kind of response whatsoever.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Don't forget about Paul Manafort (ie. Yanukovych's former svengali) and his role both in Trump's campaign as well as the effort undertaken to remove the plank about Ukrainian security from the GOP platform.

The evidence is still largely circumstantial, but it points to complicity between Trump and the undermining of Ukrainian self-determination.

In other words:

Trump was boot-licking Putin, yet again...

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

In other words:

Trump was boot-licking Putin, yet again...

 

[Archie]

It sounds like Xi is the only person Putin will listen to.  The UN or the White House should start putting some pressure on China to help fix things.  They probably won't since this is just a dry run for what they will do to Taiwan but all avenues should be explored.

[romad1]

I keep hearing the "where was Europe when Syria....et.al., "  I think that's valid.   But, consider... Turkey was right next to Syria and they reacted harshly to Russia.  With their own megalomaniac's leader doing that response all in Turkey's self interest but they could see it first hand.   They responded by helping Azerbaijan in its war against Russian proxie Armenia.  

[romad1]

Say what you will about Biden as a public speaker but when I hear Blinken and Sullivan I have the same feeling I had when Ramon Santiago was under a popup, Nikolas Lidstrom was on the blue line in a powerplay,  Chris Spielman was lining up a tackle: confident, surehanded, stabilizing. 

[chasfh]

How could this possibly be, you might ask? Apparently because, since it was Kamala the administration sent to Europe in a diplomatic mission prior to the invasion, Tucker (and by extension the rest of us, I presume) thought the situation could not possibly have been serious because, after all, Kamala. Therefore, Biden's fault.

Makes sense to a weak mind.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by chasfh

[chasfh]

37 minutes ago, Archie said:

It sounds like Xi is the only person Putin will listen to.  The UN or the White House should start putting some pressure on China to help fix things.  They probably won't since this is just a dry run for what they will do to Taiwan but all avenues should be explored.

Hey, Bunker! Glad you made it back here!

Last we left things you had posted that the time to stop Putin was before the invasion even started, that the US was way too weak to do that, and that Putin took advantage of that. And then I asked you, twice actually, what could have been done prior to the invasion to stop Putin from invading. You avoided the question both times by whining about Biden and fluffing Putin.

So once more, I'm a give you one more chance:

What specific actions do you think any American President, no matter who that might be, could have taken to effectively prevent Putin from invading Ukraine and avoiding war?

Since you're convinced that what we did before the invasion was wrong, you clearly have ideas about what we could have done right. So, tell us. What?

[mtutiger]

 

[mtutiger]

This all sounds like best case scenario

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This all sounds like best case scenario

one interesting point made here is that Putin has to take some care not to commit so much of the Russian army to Ukraine that he leaves an opening for unrest in other far flung areas and the Rodina without resources to put it down.

Edited March 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1776]

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This all sounds like best case scenario

Yes it does. So much so I have to wonder how accurate it is. 

[romad1]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

one interesting point made here is that Putin has to take some care not to commit so much of the Russian army to Ukraine that he leaves an opening for unrest in other far flung areas and the Rodina without resources to put it down.

I will tell you that he has committed a huge amount of his regime to this attack. 

[romad1]

Quote

On the 4th of March 2022, Shufrych was arrested for providing the invading Russian military with locations and intel of the defending Ukrainian army during the Russo-Ukrainian war. ^[12]

 

This guy is a Putinist Ukrainian Quisling.  He's lucky to be alive.

[Tigerbomb13]

52 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This all sounds like best case scenario

I really hope he’s right. Seems too good to be true, but that would obviously be incredible. 

[gehringer_2]

Quote

Key U.S. provider of Internet to Russia cuts service there, citing ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’
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By Craig Timberg and Joseph Menn4:25 p.m.
Link copied
A leading American Internet service provider, Cogent Communications, said it was severing relations with Russian customers on Friday, a move that gives Ukrainian officials another victory in their campaign to isolate Russia online.

Cogent chief executive Dave Schaeffer said the company did not want to keep ordinary Russians off the Internet but did want to prevent the Russian government from using Cogent’s networks to launch cyberattacks or deliver propaganda targeting Ukraine at a time of war.

“Our goal is not to hurt anyone. It’s just to not empower the Russian government to have another tool in their war chest,” Schaeffer said in an interview with The Washington Post.

Cogent, based in Washington, D.C., is one of the world’s largest providers of what’s known as Internet backbone — roughly comparable to the interstate highway system, providing the primary conduit for data flows that local companies then route to individual domains. Schaeffer said Cogent’s networks carry about one-quarter of the world’s Internet traffic. Cogent has several dozen customers in Russia, with many of them, such as state-owned telecommunications giant Rostelecom, being close to the government.

From WaPo

There is some debate on the overall merits of this, but OTOH, slow or no I-net is one bald faced fact Putin's propaganda will not be able to negate.

Edited March 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

3 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

I really hope he’s right. Seems too good to be true, but that would obviously be incredible. 

Either way the Russian military has been exposed as old and out of shape.  They are a 300 pound weakling who fooled everyone and intimidated by assumption of strength. This won’t continue any longer.  The nuclear threat and the jackwack holding their football is the only thing keeping the West from crushing them.  

[romad1]

 

[gehringer_2]

Logistics:

Quote

NEAR UKRAINE’S BORDER — Some 14 wide-bodied aircraft transported a bristling array of Javelin antitank missiles, rocket launchers, guns and ammunition to an airfield near Ukraine’s border on Friday, as the United States and European allies ramped up their efforts to give the Ukrainian military a leg up in battling a foreign enemy that far outguns it.

The top U.S. military adviser to President Biden inspected the weapons transfer operation in an unannounced trip, meeting with troops and personnel from 22 countries who were working around the clock to unload the armaments for transport by land to the Ukrainian forces.

The American weaponry, which included the Javelins as well as small arms and munitions, was part of a $350 million package that Mr. Biden authorized on Saturday; within two days, one official said, the deliveries were landing at an airfield near the border that can process 17 airplanes a day. What began as a trickle — with only two or three planes arriving a day — is now a steady flow, the official said, with 14 loads from one airfield alone

NYT

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Logistics:

NYT

Imagine if the Riders of Rohan were delivering horses and swords and maybe some of the crazier Rohan warriors to Gondor.  

Gondor:  "Ugh, cool...but"

[romad1]

Lots of crazy stuff about Putin wanting a land bridge to Kalinigrad.   I think what he should consider is giving up Kaliningrad as reparation for his war of aggression.

As well as his life. 

[mtutiger]

38 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Yes it does. So much so I have to wonder how accurate it is. 

They seem to be making more gains right now, but they are also 92% committed, still short a lot of their strategic objectives, logistics are still a mess, domestically they are facing stiff sanctions, etc.

I wouldn't bet against them. But who knows.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

They seem to be making more gains right now, but they are also 92% committed, still short a lot of their strategic objectives, logistics are still a mess, domestically they are facing stiff sanctions, etc.

I wouldn't bet against them. But who knows.

TO me, the big unknown is still Russian morale. We are hearing bit and pieces, but an army that doesn't want to fight, won't, it's that simple. You can only do so much with air and artillery from a distance. You can break a lot of stuff and hurt a lot of people but you won't defeat a dispersed enemy with it. 

[romad1]

HO LEE CRAP

 

[smr-nj]

9 minutes ago, romad1 said:

HO LEE CRAP

 

If he doesn’t mention him by name… and he won’t….. it’s basically meaningless.