Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[Tigerbomb13]

 

[chasfh]

On 3/11/2022 at 9:18 PM, Motown Bombers said:

 

I clicked through to see whether he actually says why he voted against the impeachment. He doesn’t, but I think we do know why.

[chasfh]

23 hours ago, romad1 said:

I dunno

seems risky

Sure, back Putin up against a wall. Surely he'll back down ... 😬

[chasfh]

18 hours ago, mtutiger said:

 

I would find it difficult to believe that Putin would have gone forward in Ukraine without at least some tacit agreement from Xi that China would support Russia in some material way, whatever that may be.

I'm also wondering whether Xi is waiting for US to get militarily involved in Ukraine before moving on Taiwan.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Jim Cowan]

35 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'm also wondering whether Xi is waiting for US to get militarily involved in Ukraine before moving on Taiwan.

I think he has known all along that no one is going to get involved militarily in either place, he can walk right in whenever he wants to and nobody would do a thing to stop him.  It is the threat of crippling his economy that keeps him out, and could keep him out indefinitely.  He probably isn't as nuts as Putin is.  On the other hand, he knows how difficult it would be for his customers around the world to disengage.  It would be a little more difficult for Walmart to disengage from China than it was for restaurants to just stop buying vodka from a particular region.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think he has known all along that no one is going to get involved militarily in either place, he can walk right in whenever he wants to and nobody would do a thing to stop him.  It is the threat of crippling his economy that keeps him out, and could keep him out indefinitely.  He probably isn't as nuts as Putin is.  On the other hand, he knows how difficult it would be for his customers around the world to disengage.  It would be a little more difficult for Walmart to disengage from China than it was for restaurants to just stop buying vodka from a particular region.

another difference is that as I read it, there is still some semblance of a distribution Chinese governmental authority around Xi - he has not had nearly the generational time frame to consolidate his dictatorship that Putin has. He may have the same impulses, but he remains somewhat more constrained.

Edited March 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think he has known all along that no one is going to get involved militarily in either place, he can walk right in whenever he wants to and nobody would do a thing to stop him.  It is the threat of crippling his economy that keeps him out, and could keep him out indefinitely.  He probably isn't as nuts as Putin is.  On the other hand, he knows how difficult it would be for his customers around the world to disengage.  It would be a little more difficult for Walmart to disengage from China than it was for restaurants to just stop buying vodka from a particular region.

This is true to an extent, but even if not as drastic, it's doesn't seem hard to envision there being negative economic consequences that would leave China in a worse position than the status quo.

At the end of the day, that seems to be what China cares about... protecting their business model. Much like Tony Soprano used to allude to, you aren't making money if you're in a war.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I hope she ends up ok.  Also, the newscaster needs an intervention for her bloated lips.

[romad1]

The White House has been playing this so damn well.  Its like watching a Verlander no-hitter except the fact that they can't actually stop a lot of human suffering in Ukraine.  They are doing much more sub-rosa than we are seeing. 

[ewsieg]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

I would find it difficult to believe that Putin would have gone forward in Ukraine without at least some tacit agreement from Xi that China would support Russia in some material way, whatever that may be.

I'm also wondering whether Xi is waiting for US to get militarily involved in Ukraine before moving on Taiwan.

Russia certainly expected some sanctions and i'm confident they did have some agreements with China to help overcome hardships with those.  I wholeheartedly don't believe Russia nor China expected the severity, nor the backlash from a united Western coalition.  As such, i'm guessing Russia is asking for much more than China initially agreed to.

As for Taiwan, i'm thinking Xi is livid with Putin over how much they got wrong over Ukraine.  If Russia marches in, seizes control, and then just waits for the heat to die down on the geo-political stage, China absolutely would be using that to craft their ideas on how to take Taiwan.   I'm not saying China has removed taking Taiwan off of the table, but i'm guessing they are rethinking everything they have planned in regards to that now.

[ewsieg]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/4890360/nato-masses-troops-warships-war-games-border/

NATO putting a little more stress on Russian defense without direct involvement.

[mtutiger]

MREs?

[mtutiger]

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

I hope she ends up ok.  Also, the newscaster needs an intervention for her bloated lips.

"Russian lips" is a real thing!

 

Also:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CDURwVlg6pw/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

[chasfh]

58 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Russia certainly expected some sanctions and i'm confident they did have some agreements with China to help overcome hardships with those.  I wholeheartedly don't believe Russia nor China expected the severity, nor the backlash from a united Western coalition.  As such, i'm guessing Russia is asking for much more than China initially agreed to.

I think this part is worth highlighting because I heard a man on Fresh Air last week sometime, I forget his name, but he worked at State with a Russia-Ukraine portfolio under Obama. He actually rigned the day Trump took the oath.

The question came up of whether he thought Putin had changed, and if he is even sane anymore. He answered yes, Putin has changed, but not that he has became less sane or anything like that. It's more that Putin has fallen more deeply into the same track that basically all long-time autocratic leaders eventually do: they become wildly hubristic, and believe they can accomplish much more than they actually can.

Couple that with the fact that he has surrounded himself with loyalists who don't dare tell him hard truths, and it makes sense that he totally believed that the West was weak and divided and would basically stand aside and let Russia take over Ukraine with nary a shot fired, since they'd be welcomed as saviors by the people there.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

"Russian lips" is a real thing!

 

Also:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CDURwVlg6pw/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

So, its not a Real real thing. 

[pfife]

Said it dispshit asshole dickface bitch voice: NO COLLUSION.  

 

[pfife]

Idk where to put this but........

 

[pfife]

 

 

[romad1]

Lots of pro Tulsi Gabbard twitter tonight didn't like Mitt taking her  to task for supporting Asad and Putin.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

MREs?

"I haven't heard that name in a long, long time."

Like 37 years or so...

[pfife]

Smash that block button

[1984Echoes]

12 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Lots of pro Tulsi Gabbard twitter tonight didn't like Mitt taking her to task for supporting Assad and Putin.

All from Russian Stooges.