09/21/2022 7:05 EDT Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

[casimir]

  

Detroit Tigers (57-91) at Baltimore Orioles (76-71)

[chasfh]

Don't look now, but since August 31, Javy Baez is slashing .352/.378/.563, good for a 169 wRC+ and enough to raise his season WAR by almost a full point.

How he got there is kind of interesting, though. He's still striking out a lot and not walking enough—he was in the bottom sixth for BB/K ratio of all 161 qualifiers during that time frame. He was still a groundball machine, although he did up his line drive game.  He crushed sliders better than 96% of other qualifiers, and clobbered curve balls, too. He had among the fewest soft hits, but he didn't hit the ball hard much, either. He still paced all qualifiers in chasing pitches and swinging and missing.

So how did he get so much production these past three weeks? How about a .468 BABIP?

[oblong]

that's not sustainable is it?

 

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Don't look now, but since August 31, Javy Baez is slashing .352/.378/.563, good for a 169 wRC+ and enough to raise his season WAR by almost a full point.

How he got there is kind of interesting, though. He's still striking out a lot and not walking enough—he was in the bottom sixth for BB/K ratio of all 161 qualifiers during that time frame. He was still a groundball machine, although he did up his line drive game.  He crushed sliders better than 96% of other qualifiers, and clobbered curve balls, too. He had among the fewest soft hits, but he didn't hit the ball hard much, either. He still paced all qualifiers in chasing pitches and swinging and missing.

So how did he get so much production these past three weeks? How about a .468 BABIP?

Baez is definitely someone Harris would never sign so it will be interesting to see if Baez adjusts to Harris. I liked how Harris gave Javey high praise when that was pointed out so let's hope we can get a .280/.330/480 hitter with half the errors next year plus the added spectacular plays. That would equal El Mago. 

[sabretooth]

After a bad post-ASB run, Baez is now right back to his career norms except for Hrs.

He has had almost exactly 1/10th of his career PAs since June 1st.

Career:

3793 PAs, 186 2b, 23 3b, 163 Hr, 182 Bb, 1088 K, .203 ISO, .330 BABIP, 261/303/465/768, 102 wRC+

6/1/2022 - 9/20/2022:

373 PAs, 18 2b, 4 3b, 11 Hr, 19 Bb, 95 K, .170 ISO, .327 BABIP, .261/303/431/734, 109 wRC+

Almost identical 1/10th on EVERY stat except Hrs.  He's right back to his career norms, except for Hrs.  As far as the Hrs, maybe it's the juiced ball, maybe it's CoPa?  But otherwise it's almost perfectly identical after his first two month mega-slump/adjustment.

More to the point, due to the overall slumping of offense across the league, he's picked up 7 points of OPS+ despite the drop in Hrs. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by sabretooth

[Jim Cowan]

25 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Career:

3793 PAs, 186 2b, 23 3b, 163 Hr, 182 Bb, 1088 K, .203 ISO, .330 BABIP, 261/303/465/768, 102 wRC+

6/1/2022 - 9/20/2022:

373 PAs, 18 2b, 4 3b, 11 Hr, 19 Bb, 95 K, .170 ISO, .327 BABIP, .261/303/431/734, 109 wRC+

Pretty interesting.

[casimir]

Teddy Castro is 0 for his last 17?

Hey, we got a slapped groundball past the SS.

[gehringer_2]

Manning living dangerously  in the first - Baddoo picks one off the wall for him.

[casimir]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Manning living dangerously  in the first - Baddoo picks one off the wall for him.

The wall out there looks odd, but I think Detroit has been the beneficiary of it a few times already this series.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, casimir said:

The wall out there looks odd, but I think Detroit has been the beneficiary of it a few times already this series.

The part that doesn't work is that if the wall is going to be that far back, it should only be 8' so you could still get leaping plays in front of it, but it would have cost a lot more to lower the stands than to just take out a few rows of seats.

[casimir]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

The part that doesn't work is that if the wall is going to be that far back, it should only be 8' so you could still get leaping plays in front of it, but it would have cost a lot more to lower the stands than to just take out a few rows of seats.

Yes, further back and higher don't seem to jive.

[RandyMarsh]

Jack Morris with the old "he did stay at a Holiday Inn joke", yeah typical Jack to use something that was popular decades ago. 

[RandyMarsh]

Carpenter with another bomb, his 6th in just 28 games. 

[1984Echoes]

Early 2023 Prediction:

Kerry Carpenter just might make it in MLB...

Baddoo just might flop out...

(Watch the exact reverse happen...).

[RandyMarsh]

I'm a believer in Carpenter, no I don't expect him to be an All Star but I think he's going to have a place on the team in the coming years if for nothing else than his power. 

[1984Echoes]

I'm thinking a Matt Joyce or Steve Kemp comp...

That would absolutely be good enough...

But... we'll see...

[RandyMarsh]

A prime Matt Joyce would be a great and doable outcome for him, that's 3-4 years of league average regular that plays close to everyday.  I could also see a better fielding Marcus Thames type career for him.  May not have Thames raw power but in game power is probably similar and he's not as much of a liability in the field. Thames had a 10 year career so if Carpenter could match that it would definitely be a success story. 

[RandyMarsh]

Another possible Carpenter comp if things go well is the Austin Meadows of the last couple years with the Rays. Maybe a .750-.800 OPS guy that is more heavy on power numbers. Meadows had way more of a prospect pedigree than him though. 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Jack Morris with the old "he did stay at a Holiday Inn joke", yeah typical Jack to use something that was popular decades ago. 

he is the weakest link, goodbye!

[RandyMarsh]

Just now, buddha said:

he is the weakest link, goodbye!

When he's on the phone and there's a little miscommunication I'm sure he says "Can you hear me now...Good!" while chuckling after saying it. 

[Jim Cowan]

That's 36 for the year for Carpenter, he is this year's feel-good story.

[buddha]

watching tristan mackenzie blow away white sox hitters with 96 mph in the 8th.  why cant we draft guys like that?

[buddha]

13 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

When he's on the phone and there's a little miscommunication I'm sure he says "Can you hear me now...Good!" while chuckling after saying it. 

watch out or he'll start asking where the beef is.

[bobrob2004]

5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Baez is definitely someone Harris would never sign so it will be interesting to see if Baez adjusts to Harris. I liked how Harris gave Javey high praise when that was pointed out so let's hope we can get a .280/.330/480 hitter with half the errors next year plus the added spectacular plays. That would equal El Mago. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Harris tries to trade Baez, similar to how Dombrowski traded Prince for Kinsler.  Maybe not right away, but maybe next off-season after Baez regains some value.  

[gehringer_2]

Javy's K rate is the second lowest of his career, at 25.3%. Team average is 24.3,  league average is 21.9. It would be nice if he struck out less, that's true of everyone. But Javy's real productivity issue this year is not that he is K'ing more than his usual amount or even that much more than the rest of the team, it's his HR rate. His K's just look worse than other guys'.