2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[buddha]

the idea that chris illitch somehow told harris to let candy go to save a few million is silly, imo.

if anything, the analytics people had candy worth X amount of dollars and it wasnt his arb number and he wasnt willing to accept a contract for that amount so he left.

a month ago we all said how candy sucks and there should be other alternatives to try.  now were pining away for him and want to give him $7 million just to spite an owner we think is cheap?  illitch bashing for candy leaving is just anti ownership boogeyman wishcasting.  

[oblong]

Chris Ilitch doesn’t know who Jeimer Candelario is. 
 

And I am fine with that 

[HeyAbbott]

19 minutes ago, buddha said:

the idea that chris illitch somehow told harris to let candy go to save a few million is silly, imo.

if anything, the analytics people had candy worth X amount of dollars and it wasnt his arb number and he wasnt willing to accept a contract for that amount so he left.

a month ago we all said how candy sucks and there should be other alternatives to try.  now were pining away for him and want to give him $7 million just to spite an owner we think is cheap?  illitch bashing for candy leaving is just anti ownership boogeyman wishcasting.  

This is where my part of my head is at. On the basis of calculated risk, I don't see it as an outrageous action to cut Candy. What we are experiencing here is the angst that comes with taking a risk.

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, HeyAbbott said:

This is where my part of my head is at. On the basis of calculated risk, I don't see it as an outrageous action to cut Candy. What we are experiencing here is the angst that comes with taking a risk.

How much of a risk is it?     0.6 WAR ?   

I think just about anybody with a sub .320 OBP is probably going to get moved out of here over the next 2-3 years and that includes Tork & Greene if they don't develop.   Harris isn't going to hang onto people because he likes them.  The 2024 roster might have  5 or 6 guys from the 2022 team.     Fine with me.    Better to take risks than to stick with what you know doesn't work. 

[KL2]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

5 of 9 players that might have all been in the starting batting order together in a given game last season have been released/non-tendered/waived. No way to sugar coat that.

I'm not saying the lineup was good last year. But let's give it some context when we compare it to the world series years and why we might have not had some non tenders then

[casimir]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

I'm not saying the lineup was good last year. But let's give it some context when we compare it to the world series years and why we might have not had some non tenders then

Sure.  Lots of plate appearances that should have gone to Meadows, Torkelson, Grossman, Baddoo, and Greene were instead taken by CastroH, CastroW, and Reyes.  Then add in Candelario’s misfortune at the dish and in the field.

I wonder if average fielding out of Candelario might’ve earned him another season or not even if his hitting weren’t better last season?  Just curious how close he was to being retained.  Maybe it wasn’t close at all.

[Dan Gilmore]

I would like to bring up Candelario’s old wrist injury again. None of us know his medical records that the team has. Maybe they know he has a lingering problem that make it more likely he has years like 2022 in his future, not the 2, 3, or 4 WAR that some here think is a strong likelihood. I guess we’ll see how things turn out, but a doubt the decision was significantly based on money.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I would like to bring up Candelario’s old wrist injury again. None of us know his medical records that the team has. Maybe they know he has a lingering problem that make it more likely he has years like 2022 in his future, not the 2, 3, or 4 WAR that some here think is a strong likelihood. I guess we’ll see how things turn out, but a doubt the decision was significantly based on money.

Sure, this is a possibility, too. Maybe Candelario is chronically hurt in a way only they know. That would be a logical explanation for falling off the cliff.

FWIW, I don’t think anyone here believes Candelario is a 4 WAR player right now.

[Tenacious D]

22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Sure, this is a possibility, too. Maybe Candelario is chronically hurt in a way only they know. That would be a logical explanation for falling off the cliff.

Did the entire lineup have a bum wrist?  Everyone fell off last season, except for Harold.

Still hard to understand/explain.

[HeyAbbott]

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

How much of a risk is it?     0.6 WAR ?   

I think just about anybody with a sub .320 OBP is probably going to get moved out of here over the next 2-3 years and that includes Tork & Greene if they don't develop.   Harris isn't going to hang onto people because he likes them.  The 2024 roster might have  5 or 6 guys from the 2022 team.     Fine with me.    Better to take risks than to stick with what you know doesn't work. 

I can understand while some might want to keep Candy, assuming he significantly improves in '23. The risk one has with Candy if he significantly bests '22 numbers is that the club misses out on the benefits of such improvement.. That's very, very low. Non-tendering him was in my view of things a reasonable calculated risk and a decision I won't second guess.

On the final active roster in '22 there were 3 position players with enough WAR ( offensive and defensive combined using Baseball Reference numbers) to qualify as average MLB position players. Hasse, Baez, and Greene made the cut. There was at least one (i.e., Carpenter) that might have also. The rest did not. I think our biggest danger might be taking too little risk by overvaluing the current position players we have in the organization.

Edited November 22, 2022 by HeyAbbott

[SoCalTiger]

7 hours ago, chasfh said:

This is exactly my problem with this move.

If the Tigers think 2022 is really what Jeimer is, then fine, kick him to the curb and don’t look back. If Jeimer truly is done done, as everyone who called for his head on a spike seems to think, then this is definitely the right move.

Instead, it looks like the Tigers would be happy to run Jeimer out there at 3B for another year, as long as a few more million dollars stay in Baby Doc’s pocket. 

In other words, it’s not about the performance, since this proves they would be perfectly fine with whatever Jeimer’s performance will be. Instead, it’s about the money. They just wanted to play chicken with him to drive his price down.

OMMV on this, but I think that’s horseshit, man.

Would you pay BMW price for a Ford ?

[SoCalTiger]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

We can quibble about whether Jeimer is the 4-win player he was in 2020-21, or whether he's worth the 3 wins he is projected for next year by ZIPs. But if we think Jeimer is worth at least 2 wins, which I believe, then he would definitely be worth the $7 million or so he'd've made through arb. And if he's not worth at least two wins, then why would we want him out there at any price? Why bother handing him the job if only he takes the pay cut? Might as well just boot him, change the locks behind him, and hold a waiver wire sweepstakes.

The only way I could accept a justification for their lowball offer to Jeimer is if the Tigers decided they simply don't care what they get out of third base next season, because they don't expect to win in any event, and whoever ends up there is just a placeholder for the chicken that hasn't hatched yet anyway. If that's the explicit strategy, OK, fine, I get it. Then any warm body at third will do in 2023.

However, if they were thinking of taking a real shot at recovering whatever the post-May-8-2021 magic was, which is not a crazy unthinkable idea, then they need at least a 2-win guy at third, which is worth more than $7 million, and my opinion is that Jeimer has at least a 50-50 shot of exceeding that with whoever he ends up playing for.

Another thought could Harris thinks Candy at a lower cost is a moveable asset should a better option present itself later in the off season. 

[romad1]

5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Would you pay BMW price for a Ford ?

Read the room. 

[casimir]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Read the room. 

Its very comic booky.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Did the entire lineup have a bum wrist?  Everyone fell off last season, except for Harold.

Still hard to understand/explain.

That’s true. The injury explanation could make sense in the case of the one guy.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Would you pay BMW price for a Ford ?

The performance Candelario provided this past season was not worth $7 million. The performance he provided in both 2020 and 2021 were each worth way more than $7 million. The question is what performance is he likely to provide next year, and whether that will be worth $7 million. If he provides what projections say he will, it will be worth it. The one thing I think we can all agree on is that he won’t make anywhere close to that. But I believe that unless he is done done, which is possible if improbable, he will overdeliver handily on next year’s salary.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

Its very comic booky.

Denigrating Fords on Motownforums is like assaulting french cuisine on a forum for chefs and maitre ds of the Cordon Bleu school in Paris. 

 

:--)

Edited November 22, 2022 by romad1

[casimir]

3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Denigrating Fords on Motownforums is like assaulting french cuisine on a forum for chefs and maitre ds of the Cordon Bleu school in Paris. 

 

:--)

Oh mon dieu, pardon moi, s'il vous plait.

[mtutiger]

10 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

I can understand while some might want to keep Candy, assuming he significantly improves in '23. The risk one has with Candy if he significantly bests '22 numbers is that the club misses out on the benefits of such improvement.. That's very, very low. Non-tendering him was in my view of things a reasonable calculated risk and a decision I won't second guess.

On the final active roster in '22 there were 3 position players with enough WAR ( offensive and defensive combined using Baseball Reference numbers) to qualify as average MLB position players. Hasse, Baez, and Greene made the cut. There was at least one (i.e., Carpenter) that might have also. The rest did not. I think our biggest danger might be taking too little risk by overvaluing the current position players we have in the organization.

This. Keeping Candy while overpaying him is bad on a few levels.... it signals a lack of interest in taking calculated risks and falling back on the safe option. But I would argue as well that settling on Candy for more than he is worth paying based on his past performance sets a bad precedent for future negotiations in free agency with other players as well.

Regarding the bolded, this is 1000% spot on. We have been conditioned from watching years of Al Avila to expect the safe move.... well, we are done with that now. Does it guarantee success? No, certainly in the short term there may be pain (arguably there would be pain regardless).... but always falling back on the safe move and being unwilling to take calculated risks isn't gonna work either.... we've seen how that plays out.

Edited November 22, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

The performance Candelario provided this past season was not worth $7 million. The performance he provided in both 2020 and 2021 were each worth way more than $7 million. The question is what performance is he likely to provide next year, and whether that will be worth $7 million. If he provides what projections say he will, it will be worth it. The one thing I think we can all agree on is that he won’t make anywhere close to that. But I believe that unless he is done done, which is possible if improbable, he will overdeliver handily on next year’s salary.

Draftees and young stars aside, looking strictly at free agency, are teams generally in the business of valuing future projections over past performance when negotiating?

If one takes into account past performance, the Tigers were 100% right on principle to attempt to negotiate to a lower number. And it stands to reason that if you're going to negotiate, you have to be willing to walk away, which they did. 

Others mileage may vary, but I think the new administration handled it well and, if anything, it adds to my confidence in their abilities.

Edited November 22, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Draftees and young stars aside, looking strictly at free agency, are teams generally in the business of valuing future projections over past performance when negotiating?

If one takes into account past performance, the Tigers were 100% right on principle to attempt to negotiate to a lower number. And it stands to reason that if you're going to negotiate, you have to be willing to walk away, which they did. 

Others mileage may vary, but I think the new administration handled it well and, if anything, it adds to my confidence in their abilities.

Past performance is one of the factors that leads to projections for the future. It's not the only one. If Candelario has the kind of chronic injury that makes any performance better than last year really unlikely, then I agree the Tigers made the right move. I'm coming around to thinking that might be the case. Otherwise, it makes no sense, to me anyway, that a 28-year-old has a bad season after two good ones, and the conclusion is he's done done at 29. That's not the typical outcome.

Edited November 22, 2022 by chasfh

[chasfh]

I would be OK with Mitch Haniger for 2/24.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Did the entire lineup have a bum wrist?  Everyone fell off last season, except for Harold.

Still hard to understand/explain.

when you have such a severe outlier outcome, you probably have multiple drivers aligning. At least one player getting coaching that may have been ill suited to him (Torkelson?), a player really dealing with injury (Cabrera, Candelario maybe), a player or two coming off a career (i.e."lucky") year that was not going to be repeated under any circumstance (Candelario? Willi Castro, Baddoo?), a normally streaky player who just missed his annual hot streak (Schoop), a player adjusting to new pitchers and team (Baez), a player caught attempting to re-establish himself as a switch hitter and failing (Barnhart), the prize rookie being injured and then having a tough July, all overlaid on general league HR reduction of >10%.

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Past performance is one of the factors that leads to projections for the future. It's not the only one. If Candelario has the kind of chronic injury that makes any performance better than last year really unlikely, then I agree the Tigers made the right move. I'm coming around to thinking that might be the case. Otherwise, it makes no sense, to me anyway, that a 28-year-old has a bad season after two good ones, and the conclusion is he's done done at 29. That's not the typical outcome.

I understand that he had a couple of good years before 2022, but it stands to reason that players who have an awful performance in a contract or arbitration year are likely going to take a hit on their expected value. I don't think Candy is unique in that regard.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I understand that he had a couple of good years before 2022, but it stands to reason that players who have an awful performance in a contract or arbitration year are likely going to take a hit on their expected value. I don't think Candy is unique in that regard.

Of course, but the underlying conversation is less about his expected contract value—even I knew he was more likely to be cut than get $7 million in arb—and whether his career is basically done. I don't think it is, unless, again, there is some chronic health problem we don't know about that will prevent his bounceback.