mtutiger Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: If they believed he was damaged goods then why did they try to negotiate a 2023 contract with him? You don't negotiate with damaged goods. You just walk away. Chas suggested that his market price (and what he signed for with Washington) was based on a perception that he was damaged goods or more of a project player. It's clear that the Tigers viewed him similarly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 50 minutes ago, Shinzaki said: It is not safe to assume Candelario would have signed here for $5 million...it remains to be seen if they can sign a 3B for the $7 million he would have cost us and what his or her (pronouns!!) production will be This. Likely the only way he was staying was by giving him the $7 million, regardless of whether he was worth that or not. And the decision to negotiate, while likely the right one in the business sense (ie. Candy wasn't worth $7 mil even in this market) meant the Tigers had to be comfortable walking away from the table. They made a decision, one that I can't really fault them for. And they have to see how it shakes out at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Chas suggested that his market price (and what he signed for with Washington) was based on a perception that he was damaged goods or more of a project player. It's clear that the Tigers viewed him similarly. I think this is close. I believe the truth is even more direct: they simply didn’t want him around anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I think it would have been irresponsible to give him a raise based on his sub-par 2022 performance. What kind of message does that send to fans and the org? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Winker just got traded for Wong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 Well, they didn’t need very long, did they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 (edited) Fangraphs likes the Boyd sign. They peg him as being one STDEV ranging from 3.73 to 4.60 ERA; 90 to 111 ERA-; and 0.6 to 1.9 WAR. The high side of the projection should make the deal well worth it. Edited December 2, 2022 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) deGrom to the Rangers for 5 years $185 million plus option year for a possible $222 million 6 year total! Last three years 68/92/64 innings pitched. Edited December 3, 2022 by Tigermojo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: deGrom to the Rangers for 5 years $185 million plus option year for a possible $222 million 6 year total! Last three years 68/92/64 innings pitched. The Rangers have been giving out huge contracts the last few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Spending like drunken rangers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 It will be funny to see them finish with a worse record than the Tigers next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Tigermojo said: deGrom to the Rangers for 5 years $185 million plus option year for a possible $222 million 6 year total! Last three years 68/92/64 innings pitched. I have to throw a minor penalty flag on that. The 68 innings pitched was a pace of 180 innings in a normal season, but yes, the lack of innings the last two years, plus he'll be 35 in June, makes this a really really stupid signing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Tigermojo said: deGrom to the Rangers for 5 years $185 million plus option year for a possible $222 million 6 year total! Last three years 68/92/64 innings pitched. Cheap-ass Tigers. If they would have coughed up another $175M, we could have had DeGrom instead of Boyd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 I'll give the Rangers credit, atleast they are spending a bunch of money after getting a publicly funded stadium to replace a stadium that wasn't even 25 years old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: I have to throw a minor penalty flag on that. The 68 innings pitched was a pace of 180 innings in a normal season, but yes, the lack of innings the last two years, plus he'll be 35 in June, makes this a really really stupid signing. Yes, I guess he was injured in 2001 after a dominant first half of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 The Mets are now on the Verlander list. I still think Mrs V is going to choose LA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said: I have to throw a minor penalty flag on that. The 68 innings pitched was a pace of 180 innings in a normal season, but yes, the lack of innings the last two years, plus he'll be 35 in June, makes this a really really stupid signing. yeah, they are going to regret it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 11 hours ago, chasfh said: Depends on how you define mediocre. How would you define it? Mediocre is 1.1 WAR per year as calculated by baseball-reference. If one has an entire active roster of 1.1 WAR on average over an active roster, if one plugs that in the last iteration of Baseball- Reference's WAR formula, an average WAR of that level on an active team roster should produce an 81 win team. Over 7 seasons, Jemier, has a 7.5 WAR. In 2018 he had a 1.8 WAR, then in 2019 he collapsed to .2 WAR. I would throw out 2020 in any player evaluation due to season length. In 2021 Jemier posts a 4.1 WAR, then in 2022 he posts .8 WAR. His WAR is one good year followed by one poor year. Of his total career, 54 % of that value comes from his 2021 season. There is a great deal of risk to Jemier's production as shown by his high season to season variabilty, with one year being very strong, and the following year being poor. I have waffled on Jemier over the last 3 months because the eye test shows that there have been moments of great promise. When I look at his total output, coupled with his wide variabilty in production from year to year, I am not sad to see him gone. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 9 hours ago, mtutiger said: Chas suggested that his market price (and what he signed for with Washington) was based on a perception that he was damaged goods or more of a project player. It's clear that the Tigers viewed him similarly. Maybe it's me but, damaged goods (could be just semantics...) means that you're getting pretty much zero value in the upcoming year... I'm interested in someone recovering value (after an injury year or an underperforming year... like Candy or Boyd in 2023); not interested in damaged goods (Boyd in 2022...). At least based on my definition, Candy is not damaged goods, he's a recovery play after a subpar year. Per Chas's first point - if the Tiger's believe he can get back to a 1-2 WAR player than her is worth tendering at $7 mill - I preferred to tender him. Per Chas's other points that there may be other issues that made them more willing to offer less than the tender and were open to losing him if he didn't accept... I think this is where you may be calling it a "damaged goods" situation... I don't believe the Tigers viewed Candy as "damaged goods" in either definition... I'm under the belief that the Tigers did not want to take the "risk" or put a premium cost (the Arb number) on the recovery play, the risk being that he has another bad year or cannot get back to higher than a 0.5-ish WAR... so if he wouldn't agree to $5 mill (just guessing) with the Tigers they were non-tendering. It basically gets us to the exact same spot... I just think there are different reasons for ending up at that spot than what you and Chas are surmising... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Maybe it's me but, damaged goods (could be just semantics...) means that you're getting pretty much zero value in the upcoming year... I'm interested in someone recovering value (after an injury year or an underperforming year... like Candy or Boyd in 2023); not interested in damaged goods (Boyd in 2022...). At least based on my definition, Candy is not damaged goods, he's a recovery play after a subpar year. Per Chas's first point - if the Tiger's believe he can get back to a 1-2 WAR player than her is worth tendering at $7 mill - I preferred to tender him. Per Chas's other points that there may be other issues that made them more willing to offer less than the tender and were open to losing him if he didn't accept... I think this is where you may be calling it a "damaged goods" situation... I don't believe the Tigers viewed Candy as "damaged goods" in either definition... I'm under the belief that the Tigers did not want to take the "risk" or put a premium cost (the Arb number) on the recovery play, the risk being that he has another bad year or cannot get back to higher than a 0.5-ish WAR... so if he wouldn't agree to $5 mill (just guessing) with the Tigers they were non-tendering. It basically gets us to the exact same spot... I just think there are different reasons for ending up at that spot than what you and Chas are surmising... Let’s not forget that Harris has stated he’d like to find a LH bat for the infield. With Tork, Schoop and Baez, 3B is where you solve that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Candy looked lost at the plate and in the field. He wasn't his old self and we'll probably never find out if it was mental or physical. I would have been fine gambling $7 million for one more year but I expect Harris to find an established player to replace him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Harris has a budget, maybe somewhere around $170 million, and he doesn't think Candelario is a $7 million player and neither does the rest of the league. Maybe he uses "wins", maybe he doesn't, who cares? I am not in the camp that says "I am going to be ticked off if he doesn't replace Candelario's production at third base" because it isn't that simple. We will not easily identify what he did with the money he didn't give Candelario, it's not just about third base it's about the whole roster. Maybe it means a 25th man who is worth 2 million instead of 700 thousand. Maybe it means an extra reliever with a decent track record. I believe in what others have said here. If Candelario is a $4 million player, let's offer him $4 million. Let's not put a $7 million hole in our budget just because the alternative is not immediately obvious. I like this guy, he's smart. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 I'm not going to stress out about the move Harris made... Just picking through some of the logic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 hours ago, HeyAbbott said: Mediocre is 1.1 WAR per year as calculated by baseball-reference. If one has an entire active roster of 1.1 WAR on average over an active roster, if one plugs that in the last iteration of Baseball- Reference's WAR formula, an average WAR of that level on an active team roster should produce an 81 win team. Over 7 seasons, Jemier, has a 7.5 WAR. In 2018 he had a 1.8 WAR, then in 2019 he collapsed to .2 WAR. I would throw out 2020 in any player evaluation due to season length. In 2021 Jemier posts a 4.1 WAR, then in 2022 he posts .8 WAR. His WAR is one good year followed by one poor year. Of his total career, 54 % of that value comes from his 2021 season. There is a great deal of risk to Jemier's production as shown by his high season to season variabilty, with one year being very strong, and the following year being poor. I have waffled on Jemier over the last 3 months because the eye test shows that there have been moments of great promise. When I look at his total output, coupled with his wide variabilty in production from year to year, I am not sad to see him gone. If mediocre is 1.1 WAR, and then Jeimer is on balance better than mediocre, not sub-mediocre, because his recent three-year average is worth better than 1.1 WAR over year, plus he is projected to be better than 1.1 WAR by all available measures so far, and that makes sense to me. All that aside, I would agree that 2022 was sub-mediocre by any definition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Tigermojo said: Candy looked lost at the plate and in the field. He wasn't his old self and we'll probably never find out if it was mental or physical. I would have been fine gambling $7 million for one more year but I expect Harris to find an established player to replace him. Same here. I acknowledge that there was no chance Jeimer was coming back to the Tigers. There simply was too much noise surrounding him. But I also expect Harris to find a player of at least equal projected value to replace him as well. We already had holes in LF, 1B, C and SP. There didn’t seem to be any need to create yet another hole at 3B. But hey, OK, let’s see how they plug it up. If they get someone similar or better, cool, I’m down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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