2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Motor City Sonics]

I wish I could bet that Correa won't play more than 110 games for at least 8 of those 13 years.    I'll be 72 when this contract is done, but I could make some money.  

 

And meanwhile, not sure we can sign Seth Lugo and at third base it's Kody Clemens/Brendon Davis. and we get to see which Meadows brother stays on the roster, plus we have a guy named Bligh.     Weeeeeee !    

Gonna lose at least 102 next year. 

[casimir]

  On 12/14/2022 at 1:26 PM, chasfh said:

The main competition with Javy for shortstop jobs next winter are Tim Anderson and IKF. As long as Javy doesn’t have the worst year among the three of them, he’s probably gone.

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Chicago has a $14M team option with a $1M buyout on Anderson for the 2024 season.  They ain't not picking it up.

[casimir]

  On 12/14/2022 at 1:29 PM, romad1 said:

Strategic retreats are boring for fans.  But man this board does not lack for off-season activity.  

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[romad1]

  On 12/14/2022 at 1:45 PM, casimir said:

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Yeah.  This town would love to be back in 2012 and relevant. 

[Toddwert]

  On 12/14/2022 at 1:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

I wish I could bet that Correa won't play more than 110 games for at least 8 of those 13 years.    I'll be 72 when this contract is done, but I could make some money.  

 

And meanwhile, not sure we can sign Seth Lugo and at third base it's Kody Clemens/Brendon Davis. and we get to see which Meadows brother stays on the roster, plus we have a guy named Bligh.     Weeeeeee !    

Gonna lose at least 102 next year. 

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thats my worry but the GM and this board think watching paint drying is too much 

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:10 PM, Toddwert said:

thats my worry but the GM and this board think watching paint drying is too much 

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Come on....

[Toddwert]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:10 PM, mtutiger said:

Come on....

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we're hoping to get Seth Lugo and Adam Frazier ..... watch out better get more phone operators for all the extra season tickets they are gonna sell.  

[Shinzaki]

In 13 years we may have perfected bionics enough to meld tech into Correra's body lengthening his career.  He could test FA again...or the Giants could owe a crap ton of money to a guy who stopped being a useful player years ago

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:19 PM, Toddwert said:

we're hoping to get Seth Lugo and Adam Frazier ..... watch out better get more phone operators for all the extra season tickets they are gonna sell.  

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It's not really about any of us *hoping* for anything, it's about having realistic expectations of what the team will do given the situation that it is in.

Did people really expect them to be in on the Carlos Correa sweepstakes? Or Aaron Judge? Outside of *maybe* Mitch Haniger, I'm not sure there's a single big name free agent that has ever been discussed or rumored as a possibility for the Tigers, and even he was probably only a possibility if he was interested in a 1 year "get right" deal. 

Al left this thing in disrepair... we all know it and we were all elated when he was fired. But the thing about the disrepair he left the organization in, as much as it all sucks and we're all tired of seeing them lose and want instant gratification, is it isn't gonna cure itself on it's own or be fixed overnight. Signing Carlos Correa alone isn't fixing it.

Edited December 14, 2022 by mtutiger

[RatkoVarda]

  On 12/14/2022 at 12:39 PM, Jim Cowan said:

AAV of $26.9 million looks fair but man are they going to hate that contract for the last half of it.  If I'm a player I will take Lindor's contract over that one every time.  He collects all his money by the time he is 37.  As an owner I would prefer it too.

 

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it was always hard to determine PV of Lindor's deal as a huge amount of money was deferred -  $50M (5 each year); Lindor will collect his last $5M in 19 years. Or 6 years after they are done paying Bobby Bonilla.

in 14 years of free agency, Correa will get $385.1M. Boras gets it done again.

Edited December 14, 2022 by RatkoVarda

[Toddwert]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:31 PM, mtutiger said:

It's not really about any of us *hoping* for anything, it's about having realistic expectations of what the team will do given the situation that it is in.

Did people really expect them to be in on the Carlos Correa sweepstakes? Or Aaron Judge? Outside of *maybe* Mitch Haniger, I'm not sure there's a single big name free agent that has ever been discussed or rumored as a possibility for the Tigers, and even he was probably only a possibility if he was interested in a 1 year "get right" deal. 

Al left this thing in disrepair... we all know it and we were all elated when he was fired. But the thing about the disrepair he left the organization in, as much as it all sucks and we're all tired of seeing them lose and want instant gratification, is it isn't gonna cure itself on it's own or be fixed overnight. Signing Carlos Correa alone isn't fixing it.

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yes you cant fix things over night  but also you can also try to put a competitive tean  out there it is suppose to be an entertainment business and right now who wants to watch this team lose 100 games again?.... Maybe Im just fustrated after watching too many games last year.

[Longgone]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:44 PM, Toddwert said:

yes you cant fix things over night  but also you can also try to put a competitive tean  out there it is suppose to be an entertainment business and right now who wants to watch this team lose 100 games again?.... Maybe Im just fustrated after watching too many games last year.

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There's a lot of time before spring training, let's see what he does first.

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:44 PM, Toddwert said:

yes you cant fix things over night  but also you can also try to put a competitive tean  out there it is suppose to be an entertainment business and right now who wants to watch this team lose 100 games again?.... Maybe Im just fustrated after watching too many games last year.

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I would gather that most people on this board are just as frustrated as you are with the state of the org.

But there's a lot of offseason left. And they aren't gonna free agent their way to competitiveness either way.

Edited December 14, 2022 by mtutiger

[RatkoVarda]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:31 PM, mtutiger said:

Did people really expect them to be in on the Carlos Correa sweepstakes?

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if it was reported correctly, Ilitch went to 10/275 last year with Correa.

10 years aligned with the length of Lindor and Seager's deals.

AAV is pretty much aligns with Turner and Bogearts and Correa's AAV.

total compensation was low.

So, call me a sucker, but I don't think they were too far off.

if Ilitch went to 10/325 (obviously a huge bump), would have Correa signed?

they would now be looking at 9 more years thru Correa's age 36 season - totally reasonable

[romad1]

I like it if they are trying to get to LA Dodgers level of constant competitiveness combining spending, scouting and talent development.  I fear they think they can do this with Tampa and Oakland levels of spending.

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:56 PM, RatkoVarda said:

if it was reported correctly, Ilitch went to 10/275 last year with Correa.

10 years aligned with the length of Lindor and Seager's deals.

AAV is pretty much aligns with Turner and Bogearts and Correa's AAV.

total compensation was low.

So, call me a sucker, but I don't think they were too far off.

if Ilitch went to 10/325 (obviously a huge bump), would have Correa signed?

they would now be looking at 9 more years thru Correa's age 36 season - totally reasonable

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None of this really answers the question - did anyone really *expect* them to be after Carlos Correa?

The 21/22 offseason is ancient history - they were coming off of a 77 win season where one could squint and (with a few lucky bounces) could have envisioned a competitive 2022 season with a future young core of talent. Makes some sense to make an offer to Correa under those circumstances. That was blown to smithereens during this last "Al Capone's vault" of a season in which they were lucky to finish 66-96 given the historic nature of their offensive performance. One which saw a change in GM/PBO as well.

Given the situation they are in, there was no reason to believe they would be in on Correa, there was never a single indication that they would be in on Correa. Nor was there any indication that Correa would even want to sign here. But that didn't stop a lot of us from speculating about him anyway lol

Edited December 14, 2022 by mtutiger

[Toddwert]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:54 PM, mtutiger said:

I would gather that most people on this board are just as frustrated as you are with the state of the org.

But there's a lot of offseason left. And they aren't gonna free agent their way to competitiveness either way.

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its not about the time left .... good players are going fast .... i fear at some point we're going to hear some  excuse about no one was left but Adam Frazier 

[RatkoVarda]

  On 12/14/2022 at 3:09 PM, mtutiger said:

None of this really answers the question - did anyone really *expect* them to be after Carlos Correa?

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this winter? no.

[RatkoVarda]

Baez is almost certainly opting out in search of a bigger total guarantee.

he will be the only FA option and should easily beat $98M even if he takes a small AAV hit.

another problem to solve for Harris

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 3:14 PM, Toddwert said:

its not about the time left .... good players are going fast...

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Again, aside from Jace Peterson and Mitch Haniger, there isn't a single player that has gone off the board that I had really heard much speculation about regarding the Tigers or that even made a lot of sense for the Tigers given where they find themselves. (Maybe Willson Contreras counts as well, but never really bought that rumor).

Let's just see what happens. Whether the moves they make going forward are seen adequate remains to be seen, but I doubt they are done yet.

Edited December 14, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

  On 12/14/2022 at 3:26 PM, RatkoVarda said:

Baez is almost certainly opting out in search of a bigger total guarantee.

he will be the only FA option and should easily beat $98M even if he takes a small AAV hit.

another problem to solve for Harris

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Is Baez leaving a problem? Seems like most of our fanbase wanted to run him out on a rail during 2022.

[chasfh]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:56 PM, RatkoVarda said:

if it was reported correctly, Ilitch went to 10/275 last year with Correa.

10 years aligned with the length of Lindor and Seager's deals.

AAV is pretty much aligns with Turner and Bogearts and Correa's AAV.

total compensation was low.

So, call me a sucker, but I don't think they were too far off.

if Ilitch went to 10/325 (obviously a huge bump), would have Correa signed?

they would now be looking at 9 more years thru Correa's age 36 season - totally reasonable

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Correa would never have signed with Detroit for 10/325. He wanted to play for a contender, and despite our playing .475 ball a couple years ago, we weren't one. I think it probably would have taken something close to 400 million for him to throw all that aside and come to Detroit.

[chasfh]

  On 12/14/2022 at 3:26 PM, RatkoVarda said:

Baez is almost certainly opting out in search of a bigger total guarantee.

he will be the only FA option and should easily beat $98M even if he takes a small AAV hit.

another problem to solve for Harris

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If Javy has a great first half, which is still within the realm of possibility, there's a chance we might be able to flip him to a bubble contender for a lower-ranked numbered prospect. Maybe someone in some team's 5-10 range, plus a flyer on a 20-something pitcher. Not unlike Joey J.

[RatkoVarda]

  On 12/14/2022 at 3:29 PM, mtutiger said:

Is Baez leaving a problem? Seems like most of our fanbase wanted to run him out on a rail during 2022.

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Yes.

Out of 8 billion people on the planet, there are at most 15 better shortstops.

If Baez leaves, the 2024 SS will probably be a downgrade.

[HeyAbbott]

  On 12/14/2022 at 2:31 PM, mtutiger said:

It's not really about any of us *hoping* for anything, it's about having realistic expectations of what the team will do given the situation that it is in.

Did people really expect them to be in on the Carlos Correa sweepstakes? Or Aaron Judge? Outside of *maybe* Mitch Haniger, I'm not sure there's a single big name free agent that has ever been discussed or rumored as a possibility for the Tigers, and even he was probably only a possibility if he was interested in a 1 year "get right" deal. 

Al left this thing in disrepair... we all know it and we were all elated when he was fired. But the thing about the disrepair he left the organization in, as much as it all sucks and we're all tired of seeing them lose and want instant gratification, is it isn't gonna cure itself on it's own or be fixed overnight. Signing Carlos Correa alone isn't fixing it.

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We probably  6 or 7 top line guys to compete for a divisional championship in the AL Central. To get a sure thing first string player today one is looking at an eight year commitment at 20 mil per season per player minimum. We would need a 140 million dollar per year increase in the payroll per year committed  per year for the next 8 years or an additional 1.2 billion dollar payroll commitment additional to cover the next 8 years. Or in other words, for 280 to 300 million a year, assuming no injuries and no screw-ups choosing your free agent signings, you get maybe 3 or 4 shots at the crap-shoot known as the World Series. That's probably where the free agent market is today.