2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[buddha]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

but to come back to this, giving Al the last couple of years may well turn out to have been a big mistake, but I would note that the major critque we keep hearing is that Ilitch is too cheap, not that he was too loyal. The evidence about one doesn't support the other and the long term implications of one are not the same as the other. Loyalty is a much more complex issue. How many capricious owners have put good teams into purgatory because they were too quick to fire a great GM that got in the line of fire of their own impatience or ego? 

its not loyalty, its that he didnt know what to do so he promoted and kept a guy who was bad at his job.

[buddha]

i said al avila should have been fired after the jd martinez trade.  if that wasnt bad enough, chris let him trade verlander for a bag of magic beans.

maybe chris learns from his mistakes, but dont be fooled, chris's mistakes in keeping avila in charge set this franchise back a decade.

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, buddha said:

its not loyalty, its that he didnt know what to do so he promoted and kept a guy who was bad at his job.

Or maybe reorgainzing Tiger management simply wasn't at the top of his to do list when he found himself in charge. I think owners like Stienbrenner and Jerry Jones who keep/kept very high profiles around their teams give the public the idea these owners spend a lot of their time nursing their teams. And for sure owner like to spread this impression so they can also bask in the glow when success does come. But I think the reality is that for most them the teams are the equivalent to an average person's hobby, in the sense that they do not hold anywhere near a primary claim on their time. Chris acted to replace Holland and Avila each when the discomfort level rose to where he had to pay attention. He seemed to be perfectly capable of doing a quality hiring search and finding a hot commodity talent once he decided to so I don't buy the idea he didn't know what to do or how to replace Avila if he'd cared to.

So sure, at this point it's hard to argue his laissezz-faire probably didn't cost the team years of rebuilding time, but I'd put it more to the side of immediate change simply not being a priority in Ilitch's world. And TBF, Avila wasn't telling a very different story than Harris is now - he just didn't execute.

Edited December 18, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

after watching this team though most of the new century I'm unable to be sanguine about that. When you have guys that get outs, even if they make it too exciting it's easy to forget what it was like when you didn't. It's only been a short number of years from when the refrain "but there's no-one he could have brought in" was seen almost everyday here after a starter was left in well into a shelling.

That was before Fetter.  They seem to be better at getting good production out of relievers now.  Regardless, I don't think there is a compelling reason for bad teams to hold onto relievers if they can get something for them.  If they can get something for Lange, they should move him too, although I don't think he's as valuable as others seem to think.  He's had one good year.  

[buddha]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Or maybe reorgainzing Tiger management simply wasn't at the top of his to do list when he found himself in charge. I think owners like Stienbrenner and Jerry Jones who keep/kept very high profiles around their teams give the public the idea these owners spend a lot of their time nursing their teams. And for sure owner like to spread this impression so they can also bask in the glow when success does come. But I think the reality is that for most them the teams are the equivalent to an average person's hobby, in the sense that they do not hold anywhere near a primary claim on their time. Chris acted to replace Holland and Avila each when the discomfort level rose to where he had to pay attention. He seemed to be perfectly capable of doing a quality hiring search and finding a hot commodity talent once he decided to so I don't buy the idea he didn't know what to do or how to replace Avila if he'd cared to.

So sure, I agres his laissezz-faire probably did cost the team years of rebuilding time, but I'd put it more to the side of immediate change simply not being a priority in Ilitch's world.

i dont think its "discomfort," i think its a lack of knowledge and confidrnce that leads to embracing the status quo.

but none of us really know.  it could very well be my bias against guys born with silver spoons in their mouths.

or my bias against people that make obviously stupid decisions like letting Al Avila run your baseball organization.

[gehringer_2]

I imagine one of Soto's virtues is that he has been durable, which seems to be a huge exception for being on the Tigers staff. Then again, maybe that just means his UCL  number will be the next one to come up.

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That was before Fetter.  They seem to be better at getting good production out of relievers now.  

I hope you are right, it would be nice to turn a couple trades and get useful returns, but I'll worry until I see 3 or 4 guys actually sitting out in LF at COPA who have proven they can get guys out..... 

[Cruzer1]

5 hours ago, buddha said:

i said al avila should have been fired after the jd martinez trade.  if that wasnt bad enough, chris let him trade verlander for a bag of magic beans.

maybe chris learns from his mistakes, but dont be fooled, chris's mistakes in keeping avila in charge set this franchise back a decade.

Both were pure rentals, and didn't have much value. He never traded players who had value, like the White Sox with Sale, and others who had good contracts. The Tigers have never signed a player to a team favored contract.

[casimir]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

after watching this team though most of the new century I'm unable to be sanguine about that. When you have guys that get outs, even if they make it too exciting it's easy to forget what it was like when you didn't. It's only been a short number of years from when the refrain "but there's no-one he could have brought in" was seen almost everyday here after a starter was left in well into a shelling.

This makes me wonder how much effect Fetter has on the pitching staff.  Dombrowski seemed to never be able to build a bullpen, although to be fair he did have success with some of his acquisitions.

Even with the overall better success of the bullpens these days vs previous days, it's just difficult to look at Soto and feel encouraged about his entry into a game.  I suppose that I said it myself with Fetter and look at how Jimenez got back being a good pitcher, so maybe he can spin the same magic on Soto.  But the walks are still an issue.

[gehringer_2]

28 minutes ago, casimir said:

This makes me wonder how much effect Fetter has on the pitching staff.  Dombrowski seemed to never be able to build a bullpen, although to be fair he did have success with some of his acquisitions.

Even with the overall better success of the bullpens these days vs previous days, it's just difficult to look at Soto and feel encouraged about his entry into a game.  I suppose that I said it myself with Fetter and look at how Jimenez got back being a good pitcher, so maybe he can spin the same magic on Soto.  But the walks are still an issue.

personally, I'd guess it's been as much as that Al didn't go in for old high cost broken down end of life relievers like DD constantly did. Just because Al was incompetent at building a hitting line-up doesn't mean he didn't have a better handle on acquiring pitching than DD ever did. The depth that got them through last year testifies to that, as much as we'd love to not give Al A credit for anything at all.

I'll Fetter all the credit in the world as a great PC, but in professional sports, talent >> coaching.

Edited December 18, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Toddwert said:

yikes are the pitchforks and torches out in Boston?

Why, yes. Yes they are.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

after watching this team though most of the new century I'm unable to be sanguine about that. When you have guys that get outs, even if they make it too exciting it's easy to forget what it was like when you didn't. It's only been a short number of years from when the refrain "but there's no-one he could have brought in" was seen almost everyday here after a starter was left in well into a shelling.

I’m old enough to remember (what, is it 2019 already?) when Soto collapsed and blew games on the last two days of the season.

For those of us not still protesting the WAR, Soto was sub-replacement level this year. He was so erratic I thought we were going to just DFA him, especially since he’s going to get good and paid in arbitration.

I would almost accept an Al Avila flyer trade for him.

[mtutiger]

I dont think Soto is "DFA" level bad and doubt the league thinks he is as well. But with the bullpen largely a position of strength for last year's club, I don't know how you can't consider trading any of them. 

As far as the closer discussion, trading Soto just means you roll the dice on someone like Alex Lange (often thought to be the next guy up in most discussions) or Will Vest. I can think of worse outcomes for this club.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, buddha said:

i said al avila should have been fired after the jd martinez trade.  if that wasnt bad enough, chris let him trade verlander for a bag of magic beans.

maybe chris learns from his mistakes, but dont be fooled, chris's mistakes in keeping avila in charge set this franchise back a decade.

FWIW, hardly anyone at the time was saying the return for Verlander was bag of magic beans. Even Fangraphs thought all three of Perez, Daz, and Jake would eventually be productive major leaguers.

The J.D. trade, though … woof. Only one guy was fooled by that one.

 

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

That was before Fetter.  They seem to be better at getting good production out of relievers now.  Regardless, I don't think there is a compelling reason for bad teams to hold onto relievers if they can get something for them.  If they can get something for Lange, they should move him too, although I don't think he's as valuable as others seem to think.  He's had one good year.  

I think the only thing holding back Alex Lange is his walkiness. Everything else he has is great. If he could get enough of a handle on it to bring it down to league average, I think he could be a closer on a playoff team.

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I dont think Soto is "DFA" level bad and doubt the league thinks he is as well. But with the bullpen largely a position of strength for last year's club, I don't know how you can't consider trading any of them. 

As far as the closer discussion, trading Soto just means you roll the dice on someone like Alex Lange (often thought to be the next guy up in most discussions) or Will Vest. I can think of worse outcomes for this club.

I don’t do this for a living, but everything I see from the guy suggests that if he ever has a good year again, it’ll be because he gets lucky. In fact, he was lucky he didn’t give up his career average of home runs per fly balls this year, because had he done so, his topline numbers would have been worse enough that I think he might well have been DFA’ed.

[mtutiger]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t do this for a living, but everything I see from the guy suggests that if he ever has a good year again, it’ll be because he gets lucky. In fact, he was lucky he didn’t give up his career average of home runs per fly balls this year, because had he done so, his topline numbers would have been worse enough that I think he might well have been DFA’ed.

This seems kinda arbitrary to me, but ymmv.

To be clear, I really don't care for him either, he's too big of a risk for me. But it's less about actual talent with Soto and more about the fact that he cannot harness it or control it. He walks too many guys; not uncommon for a guy with his profile, but it's hard to stomach 5 walks/9.

But the Tigers are not going to simply DFA a guy like that (nor should they imo), and we should be open to the possibility that there are teams out there that would be open to trading for a guy like that with the idea that they can get more out of him than what we have gotten so far. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by mtutiger

[Toddwert]

I guess I dont get all the Soto hate ...yeah he likes to walk batters and makes his appearences interesting  but whens the last time we had a closer who didnt do that?  he was 30 saves for 33 chances. I just think we have bigger problems then him

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

I guess I dont get all the Soto hate ...yeah he likes to walk batters and makes his appearences interesting  but whens the last time we had a closer who didnt do that?  he was 30 saves for 33 chances. I just think we have bigger problems then him

Part of the hate is just that when things go south in a Soto outing, they really go south. I can think of at least 2-3 games last year where the meltdowns were pretty epic and you were kinda left wanting to shoot the guy into the sun. The game against Minnesota (after Javy hit the go ahead homer) and the Tampa Bay game late in the year come to mind.

My thing is that I don't think he's "lucky" or not without talent. He really does have an electric arm. And the year that he managed last year (overall an up and down year with successful top-line stats), he managed to do largely as a one pitch pitcher as well. That doesn't happen if he's a scrub, and there are other teams who will value that more than the average Tiger fan imo. IIRC, it was reported last year that the Astros had even made an offer for the guy at the deadline, which suggests that at least one team not named the Detroit Tigers values what he provides.

Edited December 18, 2022 by mtutiger

[Toddwert]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Part of the hate is just that when things go south in a Soto save outing, they really go south. I can think of at least 2-3 games last year where the meltdowns were pretty epic and you were kinda left wanting to shoot the guy into the sun. The game against Minnesota (after Javy hit the go ahead homer) and the Tampa Bay game late in the year come to mind.

My thing is that I don't think he's "lucky" or not without talent. He really does have an electric arm. And the year that he managed last year (overall an up and down year with successful top-line stats), he managed to do largely as a one pitch pitcher as well. That doesn't happen if he's a scrub, and there are other teams who will value that more than the average Tiger fan imo. IIRC, it was reported last year that the Astros had even made an offer for the guy at the deadline, which suggests that at least one team not named the Detroit Tigers values what he provides.

I think people just always hate on closer in Detroit... hes better then Todd Jones  and Jose Valverde.  Heck Mike Henneman and Willie Hernandez were booed and hated at times .. it just seems to be the Detroit thing to do

[Tenacious D]

27 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

I guess I dont get all the Soto hate ...yeah he likes to walk batters and makes his appearences interesting  but whens the last time we had a closer who didnt do that?  he was 30 saves for 33 chances. I just think we have bigger problems then him

You missed his 2-11 record. He won’t be cut and probably needs a rebound season to regain any trade value.  He’ll have that opportunity, but doubtful as the closer.

[Longgone]

46 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

You missed his 2-11 record. He won’t be cut and probably needs a rebound season to regain any trade value.  He’ll have that opportunity, but doubtful as the closer.

With baseball, it's not so much what you've done, but what your potential is. With that caliber of stuff, there is always the thought that some refinement will get him over the hump.

Stuff has value.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Longgone

[Tenacious D]

5 minutes ago, Longgone said:

With baseball, it's not so much what you've done, but what your potential is. With that caliber of stuff, there is always the thought that some refinement will get him over the hump.

Stuff has value.

Agree.  Maybe he’ll respond better to a 2nd season with Fetter. He’d be lethal if he could improve his command some.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Toddwert said:

I guess I dont get all the Soto hate ...yeah he likes to walk batters and makes his appearences interesting  but whens the last time we had a closer who didnt do that?  he was 30 saves for 33 chances. I just think we have bigger problems then him

Saves are a terribly overrated statistic.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

 He really does have an electric arm. 

No question it’s electric.  But the control is like predicting where a lightning bolt will strike.