2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[alex]

Trade Idea, Always much easier said than done of course, but may make some sense:

NYM:  GSoto, JWentz, JCisnero and a decent prospect (no one on MLB Roster) / or a top prospect (out of our top 5 for ex CKeith, IPacheco or maybe even JJobe).

Det: BBaty, EEscobar (they just signed DMendick for utility) and HCarrasco / or MCanha (more so the top prospect here w/ Canha).

Tigs get to fill out part of the lineup and top a prospect. NYM get salary relief (at some point they will seek it) and decent controllable arms.

After we 'could' deal HCarrasco+ to a team needing a SP in some capacity for another decent prospect (ex Angels/JAdell, Tex/JSmith or EDuran).

Just thought to float an idea... 🙂 ☃️ After all it is Christmas time, lol...

[Toddwert]

24 minutes ago, alex said:

Trade Idea, Always much easier said than done of course, but may make some sense:

NYM:  GSoto, JWentz, JCisnero and a decent prospect (no one on MLB Roster) / or a top prospect (out of our top 5 for ex CKeith, IPacheco or maybe even JJobe).

Det: BBaty, EEscobar (they just signed DMendick for utility) and HCarrasco / or MCanha (more so the top prospect here w/ Canha).

Tigs get to fill out part of the lineup and top a prospect. NYM get salary relief (at some point they will seek it) and decent controllable arms.

After we 'could' deal HCarrasco+ to a team needing a SP in some capacity for another decent prospect (ex Angels/JAdell, Tex/JSmith or EDuran).

Just thought to float an idea... 🙂 ☃️ After all it is Christmas time, lol...

Id be happy just to get Baty with that haul but im  no trade expert

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

It was a joke combining the ideas that you present these charts a lot and Logue has some of the worst percentile ranks I have seen.   I think the ranks are interesting and can be instructive in certain cases, but they are not predictive in general.  

Without doing any research on it, which I might try to do at some point, I’m guessing there are certain attributes on the Statcast cards that are somewhat predictive and others that are far less so.

Going out on a limb here, I don’t think xBA and xSLG are all that predictive, and hard hit % might not be much more predictive, because they are the result of batted ball which has a high degree of luck attended to it. But I’m guessing K% and BB% are probably more predictive because they reflect more a pitcher’s stuff, the ability to pound the zone and elicit swing and miss. Again, that’s just going out on a limb and making a guess educated by looking at a lot of this stuff, and not taking into account any concerted changes hitters and pitchers make to address weaknesses that could change a guy’s card year over year.

[chasfh]

48 minutes ago, alex said:

Trade Idea, Always much easier said than done of course, but may make some sense:

NYM:  GSoto, JWentz, JCisnero and a decent prospect (no one on MLB Roster) / or a top prospect (out of our top 5 for ex CKeith, IPacheco or maybe even JJobe).

Det: BBaty, EEscobar (they just signed DMendick for utility) and HCarrasco / or MCanha (more so the top prospect here w/ Canha).

Tigs get to fill out part of the lineup and top a prospect. NYM get salary relief (at some point they will seek it) and decent controllable arms.

After we 'could' deal HCarrasco+ to a team needing a SP in some capacity for another decent prospect (ex Angels/JAdell, Tex/JSmith or EDuran).

Just thought to float an idea... 🙂 ☃️ After all it is Christmas time, lol...

This is a good swing at it, although are the Mets looking for marginal salary relief? They just signed Danny Mendick to a million dollar big league deal just to stick him in Syracuse since he has something like four guys ahead of him on the chart.

Edited December 24, 2022 by chasfh

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

This is a good swing at it, although are the Mets looking for marginal salary relief? They just signed Danny Mendick to a million dollar big league deal just to stick him in Syracuse since he has something like four guys ahead of him on the chart.

if the goal is to win the WS one (or both) of the next 2 seasons, any trade would need, I think, to further that goal.

McCann saved them just 4.75M per year (literally less than 1%) of payroll, so I don't think Cohen cares about money for at least 3 years, if ever

yes, focusing just on Baty is the good plan, as the Mets bullpen is lacking compared to other pieces and that is something Tigers do have to trade

[mtutiger]

44 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

if the goal is to win the WS one (or both) of the next 2 seasons, any trade would need, I think, to further that goal.

McCann saved them just 4.75M per year (literally less than 1%) of payroll, so I don't think Cohen cares about money for at least 3 years, if ever

yes, focusing just on Baty is the good plan, as the Mets bullpen is lacking compared to other pieces and that is something Tigers do have to trade

You could argue that their rotation (particularly younger or high end prospect starters) could be appealing to the extent that their rotation is ancient compared to the rest of the league.

It's really the only flaw I see when I look at them... a lot riding on Scherzer and Verlander

 

[RatkoVarda]

you're right; I don't think we can rule out the Mets trading for ERod for rotation depth; it would be nuts, but cannot rule it out. Cohen will do whatever he wants.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

Without doing any research on it, which I might try to do at some point, I’m guessing there are certain attributes on the Statcast cards that are somewhat predictive and others that are far less so.

Going out on a limb here, I don’t think xBA and xSLG are all that predictive, and hard hit % might not be much more predictive, because they are the result of batted ball which has a high degree of luck attended to it. But I’m guessing K% and BB% are probably more predictive because they reflect more a pitcher’s stuff, the ability to pound the zone and elicit swing and miss. Again, that’s just going out on a limb and making a guess educated by looking at a lot of this stuff, and not taking into account any concerted changes hitters and pitchers make to address weaknesses that could change a guy’s card year over year.

The hard hit % stuck out to me.  It seems like that might have some predictive quality to it based on pitch movement/velocity/stuff.  But the thought occurred to me (while shoveling snow of all things), I might have mistaken hard hit % for barrel rate.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Without doing any research on it, which I might try to do at some point, I’m guessing there are certain attributes on the Statcast cards that are somewhat predictive and others that are far less so.

Going out on a limb here, I don’t think xBA and xSLG are all that predictive, and hard hit % might not be much more predictive, because they are the result of batted ball which has a high degree of luck attended to it. But I’m guessing K% and BB% are probably more predictive because they reflect more a pitcher’s stuff, the ability to pound the zone and elicit swing and miss. Again, that’s just going out on a limb and making a guess educated by looking at a lot of this stuff, and not taking into account any concerted changes hitters and pitchers make to address weaknesses that could change a guy’s card year over year.

I think K% and BB% are probably the most predictive, but you can get those anywhere.  Seeing the percentile for them is helpful.  I have not seen any research indicating that the statcast stats are more predictive than FIP.  I have seen studies which have show that the x stats are less predictive than FIP.  I have not seen anything about the predictiveness of stats like exit velocity and spin rate, but those were not designed to be predictive.  They are certainly interesting as descriptives.   

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, casimir said:

The hard hit % stuck out to me.  It seems like that might have some predictive quality to it based on pitch movement/velocity/stuff.  But the thought occurred to me (while shoveling snow of all things), I might have mistaken hard hit % for barrel rate.

The queston I have is whether it is any more predictive than just looking at stats like HR rate or OPS against?

[Tiger337]

12 hours ago, Clinkeroo said:

Yeah.  You can only be fed BS so long before everything starts to taste like BS. I call it the human centipede theory of Ilitch.

Sure, but it's only been a couple of months.  You can't expect dramatic observable changes to a crap organization in that amount of time.  Dombrowski took more than a full year before he started making major moves for the Tigers.   

Edited December 24, 2022 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

lol

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

lol

The Tigers still have a shot!

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The Tigers still have a shot!

Gotta believe the Mets will follow through in the end right?

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The queston I have is whether it is any more predictive than just looking at stats like HR rate or OPS against?

The stats I would like to have access to - which I imagine I could probably pull from BR if I spent enough time, would be the difference between a hitter's success agains negative ERAPlus pitching vs positive ERAPlus pitching. Over the years I've thought that there some hitters that really feast on bad pitching but can be had by better pitchers but I've never seen a breakdown. As an example, by observation, I would say that when ARod 1st went to the Yankees, he was putting up more impressive numbers than Jeter, but he didn't seem nearly as tough an out against top pitchers as Jeter was. My *impressions* of watching those two in the same lineup is sort of the poster case for the idea, but like I said, I've never run it down to check whether the impression was correct.

Now I suppose if you have a bad team, you don't care, any production is going to increase wins, but if you are thinking about winning in the playoffs against a generally higher quality of pitching, I want guys who do better facing the best - if there is such a thing.

[Jim Cowan]

He might be headed back to the Twins at this rate.  He left 2/70 on the table there.  Would they still offer it?

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The stats I would like to have access to - which I imagine I could probably pull from BR if I spent enough time, would be the difference between a hitter's success agains negative ERAPlus pitching vs positive ERAPlus pitching. Over the years I've thought that there some hitters that really feast on bad pitching but can be had by better pitchers but I've never seen a breakdown. As an example, by observation, I would say that when ARod 1st went to the Yankees, he was putting up more impressive numbers than Jeter, but he didn't seem nearly as tough an out against top pitchers as Jeter was. My *impressions* of watching those two in the same lineup is sort of the poster case for the idea, but like I said, I've never run it down to check whether the impression was correct.

Now I suppose if you have a bad team, you don't care, any production is going to increase wins, but if you are thinking about winning in the playoffs against a generally higher quality of pitching, I want guys who do better facing the best - if there is such a thing.

I'd like to see that too, but I think it's complicated.  You would almost have to look at it on a game to game basis because a good pitcher might be having a bad to when a batter faces him or conversely a bad pitcher might be having a good day.  

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

because a good pitcher might be having a bad to when a batter faces him or conversely a bad pitcher might be having a good day.  

fair point, but over the a season a good pitcher has to have more good days than bad so I would think some signal would still emerge throught the noise. Another issue is handedness - you'd have to factor that in some way. 

And of course of you slice and dice too finely you end up with insignficant sample sizes for your data pots! 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

30 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The Tigers still have a shot!

It's funny, the Mets offer is basically 10/270, plus 2 additional years at 22.5 per.  I believe that Al Avila would match that but I hope Harris will not.

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

It's funny, the Mets offer is basically 10/270, plus 2 additional years at 22.5 per.  I believe that Al Avila would match that but I hope Harris will not.

Amazing how Chris I's offer for Correa all of a sudden looks reasonable 🤔 

[Tenacious D]

The Twins would be very familiar with his physicals.  Maybe their interest was on a shorter deal, realizing that the leg could present a problem down the line.

[Tenacious D]

Baty looks like a very nice prospect at a position of need for us.  Same as Tork and Greene are, which gives me pause for trading too much for a potential bust. However, if you believe in your player development, you have to be willing to take on those risks.

[Toddwert]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

lol

seems like ive heard this story beore... 😁

[Jim Cowan]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Amazing how Chris I's offer for Correa all of a sudden looks reasonable 🤔 

He nailed the market, right on the nose.  Boras said in November 2021 that the conversation starts at 10/340, and the market told him to cram it with both hands, and told him the same thing this year.  All Boras could do to try to save face was beg for a couple of extra years on the Ilitch deal.

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

The Twins would be very familiar with his physicals.  Maybe their interest was on a shorter deal, realizing that the leg could present a problem down the line.

Just throwing it out there, but given that the Tigers employ his former manager in Houston, I wonder if he had insights / concerns about the leg injury during the time that they were negotiating last year.

It's generally implied or is conventional wisdom that Hinch would have wanted Correa, but the level of familiarity also informs him on whatever flaws or weaknesses as a free agent option he had as well one would think.

Edited December 24, 2022 by mtutiger