alex Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I think you are largely right on where this team lies... it's closer to a 75 win ballclub than a 65 win ballclub, the combination of injuries (Greene, Meadows, the pitchers), sub-par rookie performances (Torkelson), and vets shitting the bed (Baez, Schoop, etc.) did a number on their record. Maybe some performances will be replicated in 2023, but they have a decent amount of upside going into next year. The difficulty for the Tigers isn't just about money or Chris Ilitch, it's that when you are a 66 win ballclub, there is a massive gap to close. Individual free agents may be worth a couple of games on average, so how many big splashy signings do you need to make to close that gap realistically? Maybe they will overperform expectations, win 80 games and leave us wishing they had done more this offseason. But realistically, not landing Jean Segura or Brandon Drury on a 2 year deal isn't gonna make a huge difference with this team. Certainly not more than better individual performances from vets already on contracts and younger players. I think the main theme for the Tigers is and should be to develop young talented players. The appointed staff will have a chance to do so and their upgraded scouting will get a chance with the draft this year (3 picks in the top 46 or so?) to upgrade. IMHO, some of the players that under performed or could not perform last year hopefully will do better (Baez, Schoop, Meadows, etc.). However, there will be injuries. Right now there is little or no depth with position players. I just feel at this time there is a difference between having Clemens and Kriedler (at this point in his career), etc. on the field too often as oppose to say Brian Anderson or ERios and AJPollock or AMcCutchen (or a couple others). However, if the aforementioned players perform better, and Greene and Tork develop along with not having an abundance of injuries all over the diamond (like last year) the team could win as you mentioned 75 - then if you had a couple decent vets who do 'alright' the team could be closer to an 80 win team. With this comes some hope to compete in the division (this division), makes the season more enjoyable and it is more attractive to next years free agent class (ex having a .500 team as opposed to a 60+ W team - of course money talks but the chance to win helps). I bet SHarris has reached out to a few FAs, and Detroit is not a top choice because of the teams most recent record and the ballpark/location. I still think there 'will be' a trade or two and a FA signing or two - but the FA market is getting quite slim. There is a difference between a roughly .500 team and a 60+ win team. Just look at the Tigers themselves from 2021 to 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: yeah - we pretty much have to hope that was the case. That’s my hypothesis based in part on my reading of the articles I’ve posted. I accept that no one here is with me on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, alex said: I still think there 'will be' a trade or two and a FA signing or two - but the FA market is getting quite slim. There is a difference between a roughly .500 team and a 60+ win team. Just look at the Tigers themselves from 2021 to 2022. On the free agent side, spending a ton of money, the 2022 Texas Rangers are kind of a good example imo of how free agents can only take a team so far. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, all worth around 10 WAR combined. Add in Martin Perez, who had a career year, adds another 5 WAR. But at the end of the day, they went from a 60 win team in 2021 to a 68 win team in 2022. The reasons are a little more complex than just that (I live here and follow them a decent amount), but at their best, they probably were never going to win more than 70-75 games. We will see what they do after spending a boatload of money in this offseason plus whatever they get out of the younger players like Duran, Huff and Jung, but it's still kind of a cautionary tale as to how free agency won't cure all of a teams woes. Edited December 31, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 The roster is full of question marks but at least some have had success in the past. 2022 was probably one of the most chaotic seasons in team history. So many injuries and so many under performers can't possibly happen again (gulp?). Baddoo and Rogers looked good in '21. Green and Haase looked good in '22. Hopefully everything clicks in '23 but there might be even more questions after that with the contract situations of the veterans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Willi to the Twins on a minor league deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Kim is interesting. Maybe take a flyer on Grisham if he comes cheap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 10 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Kim is interesting. Maybe take a flyer on Grisham if he comes cheap. The irony here is that Harris mentioned wanting a LHH IF and RHH OF whereas Kim is a RHH IF and Grisham is a LHH OF. Although given the state of the Tiger roster, beggars can't be choosers. Grisham appears to be a buy low with bounce back potential type of candidate. He is slightly above on both SO% and BB% over his career with a noticeable dip in BABIP in 2022. SO% was a bit higher in 2022 than vs his career. He has a couple of gold gloves to his credit, so that would certainly be helpful. Arbitration years for the next 3 seasons. Kim improved from 2021 to 2022, so more there is more of a bump going into 2023? Its possible there was just a period of getting used to MLB. Whatever the reason, he SOs less than MLB average, BBs at the same clip, and appears to be a reasonably good defender. $7M next season, $8M the season after next. Would there be any way to pull Cronenworth into a deal? He doesn't play much SS, so maybe San Diego isn't much interested in him anymore. LHH IF that is the control the strike zone type that Harris mentioned. 3 more arbitration seasons and last season appears to be a valley for him, which would have been a silver slugger season for the Tigers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, casimir said: Grisham appears to be a buy low with bounce back potential type of candidate. He is slightly above on both SO% and BB% over his career with a noticeable dip in BABIP in 2022. SO% was a bit higher in 2022 than vs his career. Maybe nagging injury but could also fit the profile of a guy who sold out for HR's/launch angle and it backfired because he started missing the ball too much. His FB % and pull & were up but his LD % was way down along with the higher Ks. Edited December 31, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 51 minutes ago, casimir said: The irony here is that Harris mentioned wanting a LHH IF and RHH OF whereas Kim is a RHH IF and Grisham is a LHH OF. Although given the state of the Tiger roster, beggars can't be choosers. Grisham appears to be a buy low with bounce back potential type of candidate. He is slightly above on both SO% and BB% over his career with a noticeable dip in BABIP in 2022. SO% was a bit higher in 2022 than vs his career. He has a couple of gold gloves to his credit, so that would certainly be helpful. Arbitration years for the next 3 seasons. Kim improved from 2021 to 2022, so more there is more of a bump going into 2023? Its possible there was just a period of getting used to MLB. Whatever the reason, he SOs less than MLB average, BBs at the same clip, and appears to be a reasonably good defender. $7M next season, $8M the season after next. Would there be any way to pull Cronenworth into a deal? He doesn't play much SS, so maybe San Diego isn't much interested in him anymore. LHH IF that is the control the strike zone type that Harris mentioned. 3 more arbitration seasons and last season appears to be a valley for him, which would have been a silver slugger season for the Tigers. I think they have Cronenworth scheduled to play at 1B. Even the Padres can’t afford to pay every position player $20M+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: I think they have Cronenworth scheduled to play at 1B. Even the Padres can’t afford to pay every position player $20M+. Cronenworth would be the guy I'd have an interest in. Plop him down at 2B. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 (edited) If Hosmer goes to Chicago, wonder if that opens up Trey Mancini as a possibility as a RH OF/1B depth. Cubs seemed like his biggest suitor Edited December 31, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Phil's kid! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Phil's kid! lol 2023 is SAVED!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Before everyone freaks out, I would guess this is more of about roster depth than about filling actual holes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Glad I put off getting a Logue jersey. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 To everything, churn churn churn. This is totally my OOTP strategy. Attack the waiver wire, and if half of them make it through waivers when you need to add more players, you still come out ahead depthwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Nevin is out of options, by the way. As a borderline depth guy, that makes him a bit of liability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3rd base is now taken care of, forever and ever! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 (edited) I have been ill yet once again, but I have returned to the land of the living. I took a moment to read this thread. Most of you are much more optimistic than I. As it stands today, I see a 60 win team. The only question is whether we will find anything this year to build upon above what we currently know. Big things to learn in '23: Can and will TORK! hit big league pitching? Personally, I think the odds are 58-42 against. Will we find a competent 3B in the organization? I think 53-47 in favor of that proposition. Will Baez be with the team on Labor Day? I think 65-35 against as Javy is not in the mold of the Harris mold. Will Jake Rogers be on the active roster April 1? I think that is a coin flip. Edited January 1, 2023 by HeyAbbott Math Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 48 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Nevin is out of options, by the way. As a borderline depth guy, that makes him a bit of liability. He's a cash consideration acquisition, so one would think that makes it a pretty low risk proposition either way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Does Fryman have a kid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 50 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: Does Fryman have a kid? Bobby Higginson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMU97 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 29 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Bobby Higginson? He does. If I remember correctly, it was with a stripper who sued him for oodles of money for child support. I do remember it being a big story back in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I was a very upset fan when they let Fryman go and brought in Nevin. Phil was a late bloomer, just not for the Tigers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Nice to see Harris working hard on New Year’s Eve—that will endear him to baby Ilitch. But not with Mrs. Harris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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