Tenacious D Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Really their big mistake was letting Bogaerts walk... Story made sense as a 2B option, but the reality is that his declining arm strength made him a questionable option as a SS option Yeah, Red Sox Nation is going to be even more pissed now. Not used to a Red Sox team conceding a season so dramatically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: What did he go from...? $340 mill to $300 mill to $200 mill? Ouch. If that happens to me, I won't be saying Ouch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I think that the Twins might have outbid themselves there. Starting from the 2/70 that the Twins had previously made available, they added on 4/130. That seems like a huge overpay to me but I am probably in the minority. So if this is finally the end of the saga, when you add in the $35 he made last year, the final tally is 7/235. And it cost him a World Series championship to get there. To play for the Twins. I am having a hard time seeing this as a master class in bargaining by Boras. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Jim Cowan said: I think that the Twins might have outbid themselves there. Starting from the 2/70 that the Twins had previously made available, they added on 4/130. That seems like a huge overpay to me but I am probably in the minority. So if this is finally the end of the saga, when you add in the $35 he made last year, the final tally is 7/235. And it cost him a World Series championship to get there. To play for the Twins. I am having a hard time seeing this as a master class in bargaining by Boras. Agree, but he was working with damaged goods. I’m sure Twins fans are excited about signing a guy long term who doesn’t want to be there, but ran out of options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Agree, but he was working with damaged goods. I’m sure Twins fans are excited about signing a guy long term who doesn’t want to be there, but ran out of options. If he signed with the Tigers and continued to put up 5-6 WAR, I'd be OK if he didn't want to be there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: If that happens to me, I won't be saying Ouch! Neither would I ... ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: If he signed with the Tigers and continued to put up 5-6 WAR, I'd be OK if he didn't want to be there. Neither would I ... ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 hours ago, Tenacious D said: I like Correa, and was very vocal about wanting him to come here. However, If you look at his stats from last season, he didn’t really earn that contract. Of course that could be said of many others, so I guess there is a new standard. Kind of glad we stayed out of it as I think the majority of those contracts will become albatrosses sooner than later. Doesn’t help us much now, though. I think this part might depend on whether you believe either or both of two things: That Correa's drop in fWAR from 6.2 to 4.4 represents a permanent shift downward in his baserunning and defense, because that is where the entire drop came from. His hitting was at basically flat in 2022 versus 2021. That a marginal win on the free agent market is worth the $7MM or $8MM that many analyses have concluded (see Fangraphs). If Correa is a five-win player, that would make his acquisition off the market worth $35MM to $40MM, which is right in line with his 2023 salary. If he's better than that, it's a bonus; if he repeats his 2023 performance, or worse, he falls short to whatever degree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Tenacious D said: Yeah, Red Sox Nation is going to be even more pissed now. Not used to a Red Sox team conceding a season so dramatically. Trade Cabrera to them so they have someone to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Weirder things have happened, but the fact that multiple teams (including one owned by Steve Cohen) essentially couldn't reach deals because they wanted to place conditions on the back end of their contract offers suggests that Correa may not remain a consistent 5 win player even though the back end of his deal with Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, chasfh said: I think this part might depend on whether you believe either or both of two things: That Correa's drop in fWAR from 6.2 to 4.4 represents a permanent shift downward in his baserunning and defense, because that is where the entire drop came from. His hitting was at basically flat in 2022 versus 2021. That a marginal win on the free agent market is worth the $7MM or $8MM that many analyses have concluded (see Fangraphs). If Correa is a five-win player, that would make his acquisition off the market worth $35MM to $40MM, which is right in line with his 2023 salary. If he's better than that, it's a bonus; if he repeats his 2023 performance, or worse, he falls short to whatever degree. Another thing is he rated a little better at Baseball-reference on both base running and fielding. His r-WAR was 7.2 and 5.4. Throughout his career, he looks like a better player on B-Ref than FG mostly because they disagree on his fielding, often by a lot. So, which one do you believe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Another thing is he rated a little better at Baseball-reference on both base running and fielding. His r-WAR was 7.2 and 5.4. Throughout his career, he looks like a better player on B-Ref than FG mostly because they disagree on his fielding, often by a lot. So, which one do you believe? I tend toward Fangraphs for both pitching and defensive metrics if for no other reason than they are far more transparent about what makes up their components, plus they are frequently adjusting them for new information. I particularly like FG’s distinction between a pitcher’s WAR, which is totally FIP-based and more forward-looking, and their RA9-WAR, which teases out the luck of BABIP and inherited runners and is more results-oriented, lining up better with ERA. In my poster presentation about multiple rookie seasons last year, I used RA9-WAR for pitchers for this exact reason. Same with the fielding: Fangraphs are continually tweaking their stats with the discovery of new information from sources like Statcast and BIS and explaining it in exhaustive, even eye-glazing, detail. This doesn’t necessarily mean that I definitely believe that FG’s defensive numbers are more accurate than B-Ref’s, but given the stasis of the latter’s data coupled with the paucity of their detail and, frankly, transparency, that’s why I tend toward the former. All this reminds me: I’ve got to get more conversant about Baseballpro’s WARP, DRA, etc. Maybe that should have been my New Year’s resolution instead of my pointless resolution to try to be nicer to people. 😜 Edited January 11, 2023 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: I tend toward Fangraphs for both pitching and defensive metrics if for no other reason than they are far more transparent about what makes up their components, plus they are frequently adjusting them for new information. I particularly like FG’s distinction between a pitcher’s WAR, which is totally FIP-based and more forward-looking, and their RA9-WAR, which teases out the luck of BABIP and inherited runners and is more results-oriented, lining up better with ERA. In my poster presentation about multiple rookie seasons last year, I used RA9-WAR for pitchers for this exact reason. Same with the fielding: Fangraphs are continually tweaking their stats with the discovery of new information from sources like Statcast and BIS and explaining it in exhaustive, even eye-glazing, detail. This doesn’t necessarily mean that I definitely believe that FG’s defensive numbers are more accurate than B-Ref’s, but given the stasis of the latter’s data coupled with the paucity of their detail and, frankly, transparency, that’s why I tend toward the former. All this reminds me: I’ve got to get more conversant about Baseballpro’s WARP, DRA, etc. Maybe that should have been my New Year’s resolution instead of my pointless resolution to try to be nicer to people. 😜 Offensively, they are pretty much the same. Defensively, I don't really trust one over the other, but it's not true that B-Ref does not update their defensive stats. They take their defensive stats from the Fielding Bible which regularly updates their methods. Since I use stats more for evaluation of past performance than for prediction, I like B-Ref better for pitching. If one is going to attempt to project pitching, you are right that f-WAR is better. However, pitching is so unpredictable that it's hard to say how meaningful that exercise would be. Even the projection expets like Szymborski can't do it well. I have given up on B-Pro. They don't provide anything I need that I can't find on B-Ref and FanGraphs and the latter two are easier to use. Plus, B-Pro charges money to read articles about new advancements and I have reached my limit on subscriptions for which I am willing to pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Offensively, they are pretty much the same. Defensively, I don't really trust one over the other, but it's not true that B-Ref does not update their defensive stats. They take their defensive stats from the Fielding Bible which regularly updates their methods. Since I use stats more for evaluation of past performance than for prediction, I like B-Ref better for pitching. If one is going to attempt to project pitching, you are right that f-WAR is better. However, pitching is so unpredictable that it's hard to say how meaningful that exercise would be. Even the projection expets like Szymborski can't do it well. I have given up on B-Pro. They don't provide anything I need that I can't find on B-Ref and FanGraphs and the latter two are easier to use. Plus, B-Pro charges money to read articles about new advancements and I have reached my limit on subscriptions for which I am willing to pay. I still just re-upped but this may be my last year. Pecota is still the best projection system, and outputs in percentiles, which is useful for how I have my fantasy spreadsheet set up. Their current injury guy is very good, as is their heavy analytics guy. They post a lot of their code for replication. The social commentary is nauseating and unreadable and their general baseball quality has taken a step back. Additionally, player searching is broken and finding stats is a complete pain. I think they got hit hard when their behind the scenes database guy died suddenly a few years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Comerica Park center field wall coming in 10 feet, and walls lowering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Edman85 said: Comerica Park center field wall coming in 10 feet, and walls lowering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 A little late for this year's free agent class ... 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theroundsquare Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) I wonder what happens in that 6 ft. tall area in RF. Will the black fence just be taller? I wonder if it is possible to squeeze in standing room. That would be a desirable standing room area for people interested in catching a HR ball. I could see how it might lead to a few fights, too. So probably just a fence? Edited January 11, 2023 by theroundsquare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: The whining about the dimensions won't stop until dead center field is 250 feet. I don't like the small change as to have any chance of quieting the 22 years of continuous bitching, They should have came in by 15 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Watch as lowering the fence somehow affects the batter's eye and exit velos in Comerica drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Watch as lowering the fence somehow affects the batter's eye and exit velos in Comerica drop. I suspect this will happen. I am happy to hear about the changes. I don't think this will be enough for most casual fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) No surprise to anyone here I would not have done anything, but this is Not Terrible. I actually like lowering the high wall as it gives more opportunity for fielders to take away runs, which is always fun. And jumping in front of the existing 13 ft wall is also a good way to get hurt. Umping in infront of a lower wall where you can use your off hand is less risky. Edited January 11, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I just saw this from Nevin: He already knows what he wants to do at Comerica Park. “It’s a big park, and that’s going to be good for me because I’m going to keep it simple,” Nevin said. “Keep it simple, try to hit some line drives and build upon that and become a solid player for the organization.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I just want to know what Lynn Henning thinks about the new dimensions. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Tiger337 said: I just want to know what Lynn Henning thinks about the new dimensions. Lynn's thoughts are...Schwing!!! Edited January 11, 2023 by Shinzaki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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