2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

If Cisnero was a free agent from another team, he’s the kind of pitcher I would expect to see Harris take a risk on. Where was the outrage when we signed Shreve Chasen to a $1.25M contract?

 

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Shreve's contract was not guaranteed.

Shreve doesn’t seem to be a good pitcher either, but he’s also on a minor league deal.  $3M isn’t much for a not good pitcher, sure.  It just seems like there are better options than Cisnero, especially with all of the waiver wire claims being brought in along with the already in house options.

I would bet had Cisnero been nontendered, he’d have gotten no more than a minor league deal with an invite to camp and incentives based on making the major league roster out of camp, incentives for innings pitched, an opt out of the minor league deal after camp if he didn’t make the major league roster.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Exactly.  Without anything reported, the assumption is that Harris is doing nothing.  He’s close to the vest and the Tigers will likely be absent from MLB Trade Rumors coverage, so I suspect he will not be given the benefit of the doubt until the team starts winning.  I would expect the casual fan to be suspect, but surprised how much negativity he’s already come under here.

That's not my assumption and I am placing no negativity on Harris whatsoever.

I'm just sayin'... my personal preference would be Chafin over Cisnero...

But you're right, I have no idea if the Tigers are actually making a play, or not, for Chafin because he runs a tight ship with no leaks...

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[SoCalTiger]

I think Harris is trying to sign Chafin to a one year deal. No intel on this just a hunch. I think Chaffin like Detroit and it’s proximity to his farm. Party on. 

[1984Echoes]

Just now, SoCalTiger said:

I think Harris is trying to sign Chafin to a one year deal. No intel on this just a hunch. I think Chaffin like Detroit and it’s proximity to his farm. Party on. 

We already had him signed for 2023 (2nd year of a 2-year) that he opted out of...

I think he wants more than just a 1 year contract (and more money...!). Doesn't mean he'll get it... But I don't think he ends up with just 1 year on his next contract... IMO.

[Tenacious D]

39 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

We already had him signed for 2023 (2nd year of a 2-year) that he opted out of...

I think he wants more than just a 1 year contract (and more money...!). Doesn't mean he'll get it... But I don't think he ends up with just 1 year on his next contract... IMO.

He seems like such a free spirit, I can see him pursuing another 2-year with an opt-out.  

[mtutiger]

Cubs apparently have interest in a Chafin reunion... fits his Midwest criteria 

[Tenacious D]

8 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Cubs apparently have interest in a Chafin reunion... fits his Midwest criteria 

They have been aggressive in free agency, plugging holes with “damaged goods” players who they are hoping for a rebound—Bellinger, Hosmer and Mancini.

[Tenacious D]

Harris has to address this.  We have one of the biggest International budgets and we’re projected to sign three players ranked in the 30’s.  Criminal.  Given our track record, I’d rather roll the dice and spend it all on one or two high impact guys.

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2023/1/15/23555908/detroit-tigers-international-signing-cristian-santana-enrigue-jimenez-cristian-perez-anibal-salas

[Edman85]

It has been addressed. Metzler is overseeing the process now.

But these agreements are years in advance, and there's really no way to reverse course in the time since Harris was hired. Even next year's crop is likely to be heavily influenced by the Avila-era course.

Still, 4 in the top 40 when there are 30 teams to compete against is a pretty solid crop, if you assume that international prospect rankings are worth anything. Even the Badlers of the world will tell you they aren't. The true gains from an overhaul would be felt from being able to identify bargain players that don't count against the pool anyways, similar to what the Astros did with their pitching. The Tigers really haven't hit on many of their bonus babies yet.

[Tenacious D]

16 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It has been addressed. Metzler is overseeing the process now.

But these agreements are years in advance, and there's really no way to reverse course in the time since Harris was hired. Even next year's crop is likely to be heavily influenced by the Avila-era course.

Still, 4 in the top 40 when there are 30 teams to compete against is a pretty solid crop, if you assume that international prospect rankings are worth anything. Even the Badlers of the world will tell you they aren't. The true gains from an overhaul would be felt from being able to identify bargain players that don't count against the pool anyways, similar to what the Astros did with their pitching. The Tigers really haven't hit on many of their bonus babies yet.

Yeah, not putting this on Harris.  Just stating the obvious that this is an area I hope he can improve upon.

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Given our track record, I’d rather roll the dice and spend it all on one or two high impact guys.

Agreed. I believe in Baseball that should be your approach everywhere. You don't need to spend your time and effort just to find guys to fill out your long term AAA rosters. The odds of any prospect anywhere making the ML if they are not really special is very poor. The big problem is the one Edman points out which is that most of the international kids are signed before they are even full grown so there is really isn't much way of knowing what you are chasing.

Edited January 15, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

Harris/Hinch must know something about Cisnero we don’t, even though his more obvious data points seem to conclude non-tender. They felt it was more important to pay him 3x the minimum than non-tender him and risk him not coming back on a cheaper or minor league deal. They wanted to keep him here and were willing to pay him to do so.

I’m guessing it’s his demonstrated ability to limit hard hit balls. Last year Cisnero was the only pitcher with more than 50 batted ball events to not yield a single barrel. His prior three years all showed this metric ranging from pink to pinkish-red.

They must believe they can do something about his walk rate and are willing to risk a couple of large on him guaranteed to try to fix it.

Edited January 15, 2023 by chasfh

[Tenacious D]

I’d throw out last year—he was coming off an injury/long rehab cycle.

he’ll either pitch well and help us win games or suck, and you’ll have been right—you can’t lose.

[Edman85]

I really just want to reiterate that throwing money after the top ranked IFA prospects may not be some panacea. Evaluation is more important.

Also, given the morass and corruption there, there may be a moral high ground in not getting too dirty.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Edman85

[mtutiger]

51 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d throw out last year—he was coming off an injury/long rehab cycle.

Yeah, this is important context for sure.

[mtutiger]

I hate to go nut-picking and all, but did a double take with this one.

You would think that there was a reason Vierling was on the Phillies WS Roster, while Victor couldn't get more than a minor league deal this offseason.

[casimir]

13 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I think Harris is trying to sign Chafin to a one year deal. No intel on this just a hunch. I think Chaffin like Detroit and it’s proximity to his farm. Party on. 

Cow tippin’ party?

[Motor City Sonics]

Just now, mtutiger said:

I hate to go nut-picking and all, but did a double take with this one.

You would think that there was a reason Vierling was on the Phillies WS Roster, while Victor couldn't get more than a minor league deal this offseason.

Could be true, might not be true.   We'll see.    I think Vierling has more upside (potentially) than Reyes, but Vierling may be one of the earliest indicators of how good our evaluators and coaches are.   Veirling is more versatile defensively and he looks like a better possible base runner.       Maybe AJ Hinch saw that he wasn't going to get much more out of Victor, and they believe they can unlock Matt Vierling.     I just hope that Vierling isn't another Mikie Mahtook......where you know there is talent there, but it never gets unlocked.  

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d throw out last year—he was coming off an injury/long rehab cycle.

he’ll either pitch well and help us win games or suck, and you’ll have been right—you can’t lose.

It’s worth noting the injury recovery.  What’s baffling is that his hard hit rate and BABIP, and SLG aren’t just career lows, they are absolute outliers.  I suppose small sample size is part of the reason.

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I think Vierling has more upside (potentially) than Reyes, but Vierling may be one of the earliest indicators of how good our evaluators and coaches are.   Veirling is more versatile defensively and he looks like a better possible base runner.       Maybe AJ Hinch saw that he wasn't going to get much more out of Victor, and they believe they can unlock Matt Vierling.     I just hope that Vierling isn't another Mikie Mahtook......where you know there is talent there, but it never gets unlocked.  

Not to mention he's a way more patient hitter as well over Victor, who had a Javy-esque walk rate. 

I agree with all of this and that Vierling may not be a game changing acquisition, I just see a lot of evidence that suggests that Vierling clearly is a better player.

Edited January 15, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motor City Sonics]

Victor Reyes.............a loaf of bread with half the slices still left.  Bread tastes fine, you can make toast out of it, or even a sandwich that will be good.

Matt Vierling...........fresh loaf of bread, only a couple slices missing, it just tastes a little better, makes a better sandwich right now.........2 years from now he could be Victor Bread and Roberto Campos is the right-out-of the oven new bread.  

I'm hungry. 

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Not to mention he's a way more patient hitter as well over Victor, who had a Javy-esque walk rate. 

I agree with all of this and that Vierling may not be a game changing acquisition, I just see a lot of evidence that suggests that Vierling clearly is a better player.

Vierling's walk rate is 6%, nothing to brag about, and to be clearly better than Reyes, he's going to have to make some adjustments in his swing, plate discipline and reads and routes. We'll see.

[gehringer_2]

Funny thing with Victor is that he seemed to do a decent job of taking pitches until he had 2 strikes, then he sort of gave up and started hacking. I don't know how you get a guy over a mental block like that (and apparently the Tigers didn't either!), but it was a little frustrating because you felt like he should have been able to make that breakthrough. At 27 he probably is never going to. I don't have any experience of what a major league is facing in the box, but as an observer I've always had the impression that many bad hitters are defeated by having too much fear of taking a called third. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Not really a hot take.  More like a dumbass one.  He was successful in getting reactions, though.

Hard to know what Vierling will turn into, but the metrics suggest he has more upside.  I’m excited to see what he can do this season—still only has 400 AB’s under his belt and just turned 26.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I hate to go nut-picking and all, but did a double take with this one.

You would think that there was a reason Vierling was on the Phillies WS Roster, while Victor couldn't get more than a minor league deal this offseason.

I truly do not get the continued angst over Victor Reyes.  He had plenty of opportunities to show what he can do.  He's a backup outfielder with a .294 OBP and no plus skills.  Vierling might not end up being better, but his floor seems to be Reyes.  Let's see if he can do better.