SoCalTiger Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 (edited) Will there be a larger rule 5 class this year because there wasn't one last year ? Is that possible ? If so maybe a third baseman in that bunch. There is solid logic in bringing him back given the limited MLB options and Kreidler belongs in AAA to start 2023 BUT if he does play much better than 2022 do we really want to commit a free agent multiple year $$ contract to him for 2024 ? I think not so might as well start dealing with 3B now. Maybe we hit on a rule 5 or low cost free agent and by mid year Kreidler or someone emerges. In general I vote to move on from the current cast of characters. Edited October 23, 2022 by SoCalTiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, casimir said: I keep going back and forth on him. Free agent 3Bdudes is pretty shallow. We don’t know what trades are possible. And we don’t know what nontenders could be available. He’s been good and bad. Sometimes I want to write off 2022 because all hitters stunk and the two coaches are it returning. Other times, I remember these coaches were the same coaches in 2021 when Candelario was fine. And regardless of who the hitting coaches were, Candelario’s defense took a step back in 2022. Same coaches who perhaps are fine enough to have around when a player is going good and doesn't need help, but are clueless to step in once they start going bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: Will there be a larger rule 5 class this year because there wasn't one last year ? Is that possible ? If so maybe a third baseman in that bunch. There is solid logic in bringing him back given the limited MLB options and Kreidler belongs in AAA to start 2023 BUT if he does play much better than 2022 do we really want to commit a free agent multiple year $$ contract to him for 2024 ? I think not so might as well start dealing with 3B now. Maybe we hit on a rule 5 or low cost free agent and by mid year Kreidler or someone emerges. In general I vote to move on from the current cast of characters. I'm not worried about crossing that bridge until next winter. I'd like to see whether we can get him fixed and contributing for next year before we have to worry about a good problem to have like do we sign him for 2024 which, really, we have no idea what the rest of the team around him even looks like until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, chasfh said: I really doubt no one else would even take a look at Jeimer if we cut him loose on the market. but that's sort of the system. There are always guys out there available to sign as FA's because their own team's only option to lock then down was to bring them back at an arb number they didn't think was worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: but that's sort of the system. There are always guys out there available to sign as FA's because their own team's only option to lock then down was to bring them back at an arb number they didn't think was worth it. This is true if you believe, as you and many here apparently do, that Jeimer Candelario has suddenly become no better than a fungible, freely-available replacement-level player—or even, as someone else suggested, a worse option than eeny-meeny-miney-moeing a pick off the Rule 5 pile. I don't agree either of those is the case as of yet. I happen to think there is a really good chance that Jeimer is the best 3B option reasonably available to us for 2023, and as of this moment, I would hate to let him go for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 1 hour ago, chasfh said: This is true if you believe, as you and many here apparently do, that Jeimer Candelario has suddenly become no better than a fungible, freely-available replacement-level player—or even, as someone else suggested, a worse option than eeny-meeny-miney-moeing a pick off the Rule 5 pile. I don't agree either of those is the case as of yet. I happen to think there is a really good chance that Jeimer is the best 3B option reasonably available to us for 2023, and as of this moment, I would hate to let him go for nothing. so here is my problem with Candelario: If you look at his results, he's had three 'seasons' with good batting results - but two of those were under 200 AB. The exception was 2021, but drill into his monthly results in '21 and there is the same pattern again, good month, bad month. In his entire career to date, Jiemer has never sustained an solild OPS for any 300 AB stretch, 'it' has always come and gone for him, and of course last season 'it' never showed up at all. Now for sure, the team may know some things we don't. For instance, a few years ago they said the situation with his wrist was probably going to be chronic - was he never 100% last season? If not is there reason to believe he might be next season? I'm will to accept that something like that may well be true, and could be the source for assigning him more value, but otherwise, a guy who goes through what should be some of the best years of career and still can't find consistency isn't someone I want to spend increasing $ on. Of course, it's not my money, so if the team's willing to spend it, the news might prompt a quizzical look across my visage, but I'm not going to complain particularly..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: so here is my problem with Candelario: If you look at his results, he's had three 'seasons' with good batting results - but two of those were under 200 AB. The exception was 2021, but drill into his monthly results in '21 and there is the same pattern again, good month, bad month. In his entire career to date, Jiemer has never sustained an solild OPS for any 300 AB stretch, 'it' has always come and gone for him, and of course last season 'it' never showed up at all. Now for sure, the team may know some things we don't. For instance, a few years ago they said the situation with his wrist was probably going to be chronic - was he never 100% last season? If not is there reason to believe he might be next season? I'm will to accept that something like that may well be true, and could be the source for assigning him more value, but otherwise, a guy who goes through what should be some of the best years of career and still can't find consistency isn't someone I want to spend increasing $ on. Of course, it's not my money, so if the team's willing to spend it, the news might prompt a quizzical look across my visage, but I'm not going to complain particularly..... If it's chronic, can we ever expect it not to be an issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 5 hours ago, chasfh said: This is true if you believe, as you and many here apparently do, that Jeimer Candelario has suddenly become no better than a fungible, freely-available replacement-level player—or even, as someone else suggested, a worse option than eeny-meeny-miney-moeing a pick off the Rule 5 pile. I don't agree either of those is the case as of yet. I happen to think there is a really good chance that Jeimer is the best 3B option reasonably available to us for 2023, and as of this moment, I would hate to let him go for nothing. That’s how I feel. Got anyone better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said: If it's chronic, can we ever expect it not to be an issue? IDK, this issue has disappeared from public view recently so maybe it did go away. I didn't really mean to focus so much on any particular ailment he may be suffering so much as the possibility that for whatever reason he's been less than 100% and while the team knows it and the prognosis of whatever it is, we don't. Thus they may evaluate this performance this season in a different light than maybe I do. Edited October 24, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Not my $$ but I'm not paying 7 million for the following even for the poor fielding and plodding base running AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS 429 49 93 19 2 13 50 28 6 109 0 1 .217 .272 .361 .633 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 15 hours ago, casimir said: I keep going back and forth on him. Free agent 3Bdudes is pretty shallow. We don’t know what trades are possible. And we don’t know what nontenders could be available. He’s been good and bad. Sometimes I want to write off 2022 because all hitters stunk and the two coaches are it returning. Other times, I remember these coaches were the same coaches in 2021 when Candelario was fine. And regardless of who the hitting coaches were, Candelario’s defense took a step back in 2022. I'm in the same boat, but his defense tilts against bringing him back for me. Certainly for $7 mil. But I dont know what Harris will do... his BB/K numbers would suggest he could fit he model, but if he can't be counted on to hit or field well, that's an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Candy could easily rebound with the bat to something decent, but hes eeking over the peak performance age and is a below avg glove. I say cut him and see if you can get him back on a minimum contract. You have Kreidler and Lipcius, who wouldnt be a step back from 2022 anyway, and one of them might provide a solution for a couple of years or more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, oblong said: That’s how I feel. Got anyone better? Internally, not really. But it's a question of whether you risk the 3B market (which is thin) or try to upgrade through trade (which, outside of a few of the pitching prospects, there doesn't seem to be much by way of tradable assets, at least on paper). (EDIT: Or roll with what you have regardless, as sabretooth suggests) Harris talked both in his press conference and in an interview with Dan Dickerson about "calculated risks." The decision to bring Jeimer back or not seems like one of those... and the question is whether the upside is worth it. As an aside, I do appreciate that emphasis as well... it's a big departure from Al, who seemed way too cautious and overvalued prospects way too often. Edited October 24, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, sabretooth said: Candy could easily rebound with the bat to something decent, but hes eeking over the peak performance age and is a below avg glove. I say cut him and see if you can get him back on a minimum contract. You have Kreidler and Lipcius, who wouldnt be a step back from 2022 anyway, and one of them might provide a solution for a couple of years or more. I suspect one way or another they would bring somebody in regardless in that scenario (even if it's a one of the lower rung options), but as you suggest, there's enough red flags to make an argument that Candy shouldn't be a slam dunk to be brought back Edited October 24, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 7 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: Not my $$ but I'm not paying 7 million for the following even for the poor fielding and plodding base running AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS 429 49 93 19 2 13 50 28 6 109 0 1 .217 .272 .361 .633 Would you pay $7 million for this? AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS 512 69 131 33 4 17 63 58 6 126 1 1 .256 .338 .436 .774 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Get the analytics staff, player dev staff, and new hitting coach together. If they are confident that Candelario can be fixed, hang onto him. If not, bye. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, sabretooth said: Candy could easily rebound with the bat to something decent, but hes eeking over the peak performance age and is a below avg glove. I say cut him and see if you can get him back on a minimum contract. You have Kreidler and Lipcius, who wouldnt be a step back from 2022 anyway, and one of them might provide a solution for a couple of years or more. I think if we cut him, he’s gone, because there are at minimum half a dozen other teams that would be quite happy to bring Jeimer on for some substantial fraction of $7 million. This isn’t Drew Hutchison we’re talking about—this is someone who’s actually valuable to lots of other teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 43 minutes ago, sabretooth said: Candy could easily rebound with the bat to something decent, but hes eeking over the peak performance age and is a below avg glove. I say cut him and see if you can get him back on a minimum contract. You have Kreidler and Lipcius, who wouldnt be a step back from 2022 anyway, and one of them might provide a solution for a couple of years or more. Also, if all you want is to match 2022 at 3B, might as well bring back Jeimer, because he is probably 90+% likely to exceed that. And if the counter is yeah but it’s $7 million versus $750,000, I would say, I really doubt $6.25 million is a crippling difference to Baby Doc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Get the analytics staff, player dev staff, and new hitting coach together. If they are confident that Candelario can be fixed, hang onto him. If not, bye. Of course. That was always going to be the condition. The discussion at hand among us sitting out here in nobodyland is, do we think he’s fixable, or do we think his career is over? I’m in Camp Fixable. How about you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think if we cut him, he’s gone, because there are at minimum half a dozen other teams that would be quite happy to bring Jeimer on for some substantial fraction of $7 million. This isn’t Drew Hutchison we’re talking about—this is someone who’s actually valuable to lots of other teams. This is probably true. But OTOH, other teams having interest in Candelario isn't necessarily a good argument for bringing back Candelario through arbitration. It really comes down to performance and whether they can get better in 2023, and that is an open question at this point. Edited October 24, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: I'm in the same boat, but his defense tilts against bringing him back for me. Certainly for $7 mil. But I dont know what Harris will do... his BB/K numbers would suggest he could fit he model, but if he can't be counted on to hit or field well, that's an issue. He was an average to even plus defender before this year, if you believe OA, anyway. He’s never going to be coached up to Nolan Arenado, but are we sure his defense has fallen off the cliff permanently as well? I wonder how much the hitting woes he wasn’t getting any help for affected the rest of his game, which is a thing. Would it better to completely punt on offense to get Kreidler’s glove in there for 140 games? FWIW, I doubt Harris will be willing to throw that against the wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Get the analytics staff, player dev staff, and new hitting coach together. If they are confident that Candelario can be fixed, hang onto him. If not, bye. I do agree with this. And if they are concerned that he cannot be fixed, they shouldn't be afraid to walk away because of what is or isn't out there or within the org. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: This is probably true. But OTOH, other teams having interest in Candelario isn't necessarily a good argument for bringing back Candelario through arbitration. It really comes down to performance and whether they can get better in 2023, and that is an open question at this point. I think a good argument is that there’s probably nobody even close to Candelario who is reasonably available to us next year, unless we want to pay 4x his projected arb to lure Arenado here, which I promise ain’t happening. Granted, my assumption is that 2021 is closer to Jeimer’s true level than 2022. But even if he were guaranteed next year to split the difference between the two exactly in the middle, he would be a slam dunk to bring back at $7 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Get the analytics staff, player dev staff, and new hitting coach together. If they are confident that Candelario can be fixed, hang onto him. If not, bye. you take the film from his 60 AB from July 7 to July 27 over which he OPS'd 1.100 and if you can't figure why those 60 AB stood in complete contradiction the rest of his season..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 minute ago, chasfh said: Would it better to completely punt on offense to get Kreidler’s glove in there for 140 games? FWIW, I doubt Harris will be willing to throw that against the wall. I dont know that it's an either/or option between keeping Candy and starting Ryan Kreidler, first off. Second off, I don't know what Harris will do. Especially given his repeated statement that he's willing to take calculated risks... I take that as he's not going to always make the moves that are safe or look obvious to fans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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