2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

I think our old friend Biggs was right with his theory that if you can get a Tony Clark in your draft then it was a very good draft.  He wasn't anything special, solid player but that's about all you can hope for.  Not every draft has a franchise player like a Trout or Verlander or ARod.  

There has been a bit of hyperbole about the Avila drafts in the sense that it often overstates the success that other teams have with respect to their own drafts; even the good teams draft plenty of players that don't pan out.

Where the criticism is valid imo comes down to where they have drafted; for all the high draft picks, they haven't had much to show for it thus far. Maybe that changes as Tork/Greene get more experience, Manning progresses, Mize gets healthy, but they have been abjectly disappointing in this regard.

[casimir]

48 minutes ago, oblong said:

That just shows how much of a crapshoot the draft is.  Pick any random team and a random year and the results are usually pretty pedestrian. Here's what I did just now on BR, all random, the best player picked:

2013 Astros - Tony Kemp

2010 Twins - Eddie Rosario

2015 Rockies - Brendan Rogers

2012 A's - Matt Olsen (good pick, #47 overall, comp pick for losing DeJesus)

 

I think our old friend Biggs was right with his theory that if you can get a Tony Clark in your draft then it was a very good draft.  He wasn't anything special, solid player but that's about all you can hope for.  Not every draft has a franchise player like a Trout or Verlander or ARod.  

 

Sure, the MLB draft can be a crapshoot, no question.

When you were looking at the best player picked, are you looking at the best player of a particular team or the best player of the draft?  Keep in mind, the Tigers have been drafting early.  So, OK, Brendan Rogers might have been the Rockies first pick (3rd overall), there are 9 other 1st rounders that were picked after him with higher career WAR, including Andrew Benintendi, Walker Buehler, Kyle Tucker, Austin Riley,...  If the plan is to bottom out and gather up high draft picks, those picks better pan out.  Otherwise, what are we even doing here?

[bobrob2004]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:26 PM, Tenacious D said:

I wish some of you guys would do a Tigers Podcast.  There really isn’t a good one out there.

I've actually thought about doing one, but I don't want to do it alone.  I wouldn't even know how to start.

[Tenacious D]

23 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

I've actually thought about doing one, but I don't want to do it alone.  I wouldn't even know how to start.

I'll do it with you.  Everyone tells me I have a face for Podcasts.

[Stanley70]

I think a lot of the success with a draft can be attributed to the development team, especially the later picks. It would explain why the Dodgers can find four nice prospects in one draft and the Tigers are lucky to have one high pick pan out.

[Tenacious D]

I was looking at Jeremy Pena, the Astros SS, who had a nice rookie season and has been a postseason hero.  He was selected in the 3rd round in 2018, many picks after we selected Parker Meadows and Kody Clemens.  Was it a smart pick, or were they just really good at developing him?  I suspect it's both. 

 

[RandyMarsh]

6 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

I think a lot of the success with a draft can be attributed to the development team, especially the later picks. It would explain why the Dodgers can find four nice prospects in one draft and the Tigers are lucky to have one high pick pan out.

Yeah this is what I believe too, unlike some other sports very rarely do players get drafted with the skills to be even average players in the MLB from day 1, that's why most spend atleast a couple years down in the minors so it's up to the development ability of the franchise to make sure you maximize their improvements down there and get the most out of what untapped potential the player has. 

I think the great teams do this and get the best version of what the player can be where as the Tigers don't. They seem to leave alot of untapped potential on the table due to their lack of ability in this department. 

[oblong]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

Sure, the MLB draft can be a crapshoot, no question.

When you were looking at the best player picked, are you looking at the best player of a particular team or the best player of the draft?  Keep in mind, the Tigers have been drafting early.  So, OK, Brendan Rogers might have been the Rockies first pick (3rd overall), there are 9 other 1st rounders that were picked after him with higher career WAR, including Andrew Benintendi, Walker Buehler, Kyle Tucker, Austin Riley,...  If the plan is to bottom out and gather up high draft picks, those picks better pan out.  Otherwise, what are we even doing here?

of a particular team.

But even if you look at the overall draft by a year the results are still sporadic in my opinion.  Just proves the June draft is just one piece of building a team.

 

[RatkoVarda]

43 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I was looking at Jeremy Pena, the Astros SS, who had a nice rookie season and has been a postseason hero.  He was selected in the 3rd round in 2018, many picks after we selected Parker Meadows and Kody Clemens.  Was it a smart pick, or were they just really good at developing him?  I suspect it's both. 

 

both. they took a guy with a high floor who could play SS in the majors and had some power. then worked on his hit tool.

 

It seems more often than not, prospects who play shortstop in college have to move to another position when they begin their pro careers. Pena is an exception to that rule as an infielder who definitely can stick at the premium position. How much a team believes he'll hit will ultimately determine his Draft status. A product of the Providence, Rhode Island high school ranks who went on to the University of Maine, Pena profiles as a solid to plus defender who can play shortstop at any level. He has good speed that leads to excellent range and possesses the strong arm and footwork necessary to excel at the demanding position. At the plate, Pena does have some strength and raw power, enough where some see 15 homers annually as a reasonable projection. But that's only if he makes enough consistent contact to reach that power. There's length to his right-handed swing, which leads to some swing and miss issues that can result in an overly aggressive approach. Some of the mechanics issues can be corrected once he gets to pro ball, and shortening him up will likely be a primary objective for whatever team drafts him. With his defensive profile, being able to unlock a more consistent bat could produce an everyday big league shortstop.

[Edman85]

A few things: I haven't had the time to go through and evaluate the Rays drafts 2016-Pres as I would like to (apportioning value to traded draft picks, etc.). The Tigers have been drafting high since 2016, so they should have gotten more in that time. The Rays have, however, been getting competitive balance picks, that the Tigers didn't start getting until 2020.

The rule of thumb I've observed looking at drafts is it takes 7 or so years to judge them, unless the players have flamed out. Most of Metzler's Rays drafts are before that threshold. Compare with caution, especially with the Rays "low and slow" development philosophy.

Yes, there is some player development failure to blame for the drafts not pumping out much talent. Putting Dave Littlefield in charge of that was Al Avila's greatest failure.

[SoCalTiger]

It seems developing player’s requires patience especially for hitters. Pitchers arms might have a shelf life so promoting them faster is valid. But hitting takes longer. I think Tork Greene and Kriedler were all rushed especially considering the lost time to Covid. I think that will change under Harris. 

[Edman85]

35 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

It seems developing player’s requires patience especially for hitters. Pitchers arms might have a shelf life so promoting them faster is valid. But hitting takes longer. I think Tork Greene and Kriedler were all rushed especially considering the lost time to Covid. I think that will change under Harris. 

Development is less assigning players to levels, more teaching them the right things. Avila/Littlefield/Chadd appeared to be stuck in their ways.

I recommend reading the MVP Machine. Ironically, I believe there was a picture of that book in Avila's office, but it shows what teams like the Dodgers and Astros were doing way before the Tigers played catch-up. 

[Tenacious D]

23 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Development is less assigning players to levels, more teaching them the right things. Avila/Littlefield/Chadd appeared to be stuck in their ways.

I recommend reading the MVP Machine. Ironically, I believe there was a picture of that book in Avila's office, but it shows what teams like the Dodgers and Astros were doing way before the Tigers played catch-up. 

do you think the changes in player development can help existing players in the organization, or will we really see the impact in future draft classes?  I did see some promising developments, with guys like Meadows and Perez, and nice debuts from the 2021 group (i.e, Madden and Smith).  Is that a result of some of the Los Angeles Dodgers guys that were brought in last season? 

[sabretooth]

Several months ago I spent some time looking over and analyzing the 1st and 2nd round drafts of every MLB team over the last 30 years.

The top 5 picks historically hit-or-miss as good starting players about 1/2 the time.

The rest of the picks in the first round and second round picks are a total crapshoot.  There's like 1 or 2 decent players in the rest of the 1st and 2nd rounds combined in a given year.  I imagine it's the same or worse in later rounds.

StL seems to fare better than other teams.

If you are going to compare draft picks you have to exclude the top 5 in my opinion. 

If you do that then Metzler has clearly done better than the Tigers.

Edited October 26, 2022 by sabretooth

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[casimir]

50 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

 

Can Jim Cowan confirm that this is Tenacious D’s stunt double?

[buddha]

5 hours ago, Edman85 said:

 Putting Dave Littlefield in charge of that was Al Avila's greatest failure.

are you sure?  there are so many to choose from.

[alex]

19 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah this is what I believe too, unlike some other sports very rarely do players get drafted with the skills to be even average players in the MLB from day 1, that's why most spend atleast a couple years down in the minors so it's up to the development ability of the franchise to make sure you maximize their improvements down there and get the most out of what untapped potential the player has. 

I think the great teams do this and get the best version of what the player can be where as the Tigers don't. They seem to leave alot of untapped potential on the table due to their lack of ability in this department. 

 

17 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Development is less assigning players to levels, more teaching them the right things. Avila/Littlefield/Chadd appeared to be stuck in their ways.

I recommend reading the MVP Machine. Ironically, I believe there was a picture of that book in Avila's office, but it shows what teams like the Dodgers and Astros were doing way before the Tigers played catch-up. 

I would tend to agree here... This is where the new regime, combined with perhaps what is left of the better part of the old, will come together and move forward with actually developing average and better than average MLB players for a sustainable period of time!

[alex]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:26 PM, Tenacious D said:

I wish some of you guys would do a Tigers Podcast.  There really isn’t a good one out there.

Had also thought about it, have some exp with Podcasts and was looking to do something remotely (like many when the scenario hit a couple years ago). Even interviewed with a Co. out of Nevada that was recruiting for people who were enthusiastic about their particular MLB Teams. I went over it for almost an hour with the gentleman, he was good with me and the knowledge and interest of the Tigers I had (yet, no doubt there are several here with greater knowledge and some in specialized areas).

Bottom line was it was a commitment and the time to put into it was more than one might think ex to make ex 1-2 shows a week, not a lot of guarantee for the efforts (paid for the amount of followers who would join a subscription to the overall network) and you basically were an independent contractor under the company (which I was ok with).

Not sure where this co. is now with what they attempted to put together.

[Motor City Sonics]

What I was hoping for was that they'd look to 3 teams to get their new Scouting guy - The Rays, The Cardinals or The Dodgers.   

 

Done. 

 

So far, Scott Harris is killing it.   

 

 

Now, bring in those RF - CF fences so hitters will actually sign here. 

[Tenacious D]

22 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

What I was hoping for was that they'd look to 3 teams to get their new Scouting guy - The Rays, The Cardinals or The Dodgers.   

 

Done. 

 

So far, Scott Harris is killing it.   

 

 

Now, bring in those RF - CF fences so hitters will actually sign here. 

Have the fences really prevented that?  I know it freaked out Nick, but have there been other comments reported?

[mtutiger]

26 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

What I was hoping for was that they'd look to 3 teams to get their new Scouting guy - The Rays, The Cardinals or The Dodgers.   

He's only brought in Metzler so far, but I kinda like how he didn't necessarily have a prior relationship with Metzler before bringing him on. It's better to surround yourself with people with different experiences who may be willing to speak up or challenge when you are in an executive role like that.

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Have the fences really prevented that?  I know it freaked out Nick, but have there been other comments reported?

I think others hitters have complained about the fences, but I haven't heard anyone say they wouldn't sign with Detroit because of the fences.  The number one reason players wouldn't sign is always money.  The number two reason is they are a terrible team.  

Edited October 27, 2022 by Tiger337

[Motor City Sonics]

10 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Have the fences really prevented that?  I know it freaked out Nick, but have there been other comments reported?

Nick's not the only one but someone here brought up the fact that for road teams that come in here for 3 games it's a minor nuisance and then they go away, for our guys it's a constant reminder and it has to play on their psyche.   

Oh I think it does.    Players financial futures rise and fall on big numbers and home runs mean more money than flyouts and doubles.      

It's just ridiculous.  It needs to change.  8-10 feet in CF and 15 feet in RCF won't turn it into a bandbox.    Even if it did, it would a more exciting brand of baseball than we've been seeing recently. 

I saw somewhere that our stadium has probably cost Miggy 80-100 home runs over the years.   Don't know if that's true, but wow.............

I know it's a somewhat neutral park, but isn't it because of more extra base hits and more singles dropping in front of Centerfielders who play deep so the ball isn't hit over their heads?   

[Motor City Sonics]

Anyway, we've heard rumblings about the Tigers looking into it and I don't think that rumor just gets out there.   I also don't think Al Avila would the the pull to get Chris to spend the money to do it and I think Scott Harris does.   I think, in order to get him away from his hometown team, they probably have given him total control (it sure seems that way so far) and he might have some actual spending freedom. 

The Al Avila rebuild was about players, but the Scott Harris rebuild is about the organization itself and he seems to be taking that to heart.  The fact that they pulled a guy with a really good scouting track record makes me a lot happier than signing a big name player to play for a bad team.    

They need players, no doubt, but not the $25 million a year type.   They need solid, second-tier position players that can get on base.  Who cares about home runs right now.   Bring a power guy here and he's gonna hit a bunch of solo home runs.  If they do get someone noteworthy they're going to have to overpay for them.  The Al Avila Tax for having such a shitty team for so long.   Dombrowski paid the Randy Smith tax and got Pudge and it started something.     Just get some freaking guys here.   If you have Victor Reyes starting more than 81 games next year, it means that your team really sucks again.   Fine backup player, but we have a team of utility players pretending to be a lineup.   It has to stop now.    To me, the goal should be adding 3 guys to this everyday lineup with Career OBP of .350 or more.   Go sign both Benintendi and Nimmo........find a middle infielder (we have pitching prospects to trade).  Make the other pitchers actually work to beat you.   It's a tall task, but this team owes the fans, give us something with a freaking pulse. 

Oh, and just pay Miggy his money, thank him.  April 18th is his 40th birthday..........Make Sunday April 16th Miguel Cabrera day.   Too bad it isn't against Cleveland (because I would love to have that day against them the way he tortured them), but there is no reason for them to wait 5 years.  He's obviously going to the Hall Of Fame.   Why wait?   Give him a great send off, pay him and lets move forward.  He's given plenty of little hints that he's done.  Pay heeem.  Paey thyat mahn hees mahney. 

 

KEEP ROCKIN' SCOTT...........LETS DO THIS !   2025 WORLD SERIES HERE WE COME !!!!!!!!!!