2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Edman85]

It was a failed rebuild because the whole notion of a rebuild is antiquated.

[Stanley70]

If Chris Illitch it to be blamed for anything it's that he left AA in charge for waaayyyyy to long. It baffles me that owners of billion dollar teams leave the success/failure of the club to the GM, and don't have consultants or something verifying that the club is going in the right direction. At least the Lions have Speilman now. This board could see that the system wasn't improving developing young players years ago. I'm sure AA was telling Chris about all the great prospects he had that were about to break through and with a few free agents they would be contenders. 

When in actuality the system was top heavy and relied up most all of the prospects panning out, which never happens. And most of those prospects were in the riskiest demographic, pitching. 

I believe Al tried to rebuild, he just never built a competent development system.

[JackPine]

38 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Bregman

And tucker at 5 a few picks after bregman. Technically Daz Cameron is also a 2015 first round pick by Houston 😁

[Jim Cowan]

43 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Bregman

Cas was referring to the 3 straight 100 loss seasons, Bregman wasn't one of those picks.

[Jim Cowan]

43 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I just want to quibble with this a bit. Nobody here complained at the time. Sure it sucks in hindight but do we really judge all deal in just that vacuum?

Nobody complained at all, and many were surprised to get anything at all for Paredes.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Well, at least I'm in good company here. It's no shame to be accused of lying by you.

Fine, as you wish. I will give my closing argument and we can be done with it.

A rebuilding team moves aggressively into the Latin American market to find prospects. Under Avila, the Tigers signed fewer Latin AFAs than even the average MLB team.

A rebuilding team scours the non-Latin markets for players. The Avila Tigers acquired exactly zero players outside of three countries, and that includes none from actual baseball countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Panama.

A rebuilding team also scours the waiver wire for freely-available talent. The Avila Tigers fielded fewer players off the waiver wire than even the average team, an average which includes playoff teams, which have little need for the waiver wire. The Angels, Orioles, and Mariners fielded double the waiver-claimed players the Tigers did.

A rebuilding team trades current assets for actual prospects. The Tigers dumped so many All-Stars, future award winners, and future Hall of Famers for flotsam and jetsam that I don't really have to list them out here. Of the players you named as your shining examples of Avila's competent trading skills, only one is on the 40-man roster, and practically everyone here except me wants that guy gone. The rest are either out of the organization, still TBD, and Austin Meadows (acquired by trading Paredes AND a draft pick), which, who knows what's going on there.

A rebuilding team takes the draft beyond the first round seriously. Everyone pretty much knew who Avila was going to take with their high first picks, since every other team would have taken those guys as well. But beyond that it's been reported that the Tigers were "historically disorganized when it came to preparing for the draft", and they "would leave all the research and planning until 10 days before the draft and then do marathon sessions of discussion about who they would select.  One Front Office executive said they were all so tired near the end that there was always a rush just to get it over with."

Add this all up and we do not have the organized activities of a team in serious rebuild mode. We have the disparate, even desperate, acts of a team hardly trying at all and basically phoning it in.

No matter how many random examples get trotted out, the evidence is clear: Avila and the Tigers did not embark on a serious rebuild. They treaded water. They didn't plan for a carefully-considered rebuild—they basically winged it and hoped to get by and get lucky.

Now, finally, we have a PBO who will undertake the actual hard work, research, and preparation that the Avila regime either didn't know how to do, couldn't be bothered to do, or some combination of both.

Finally—a light at the end of the long, dark tunnel. 🤞

Couple of things, not to be one to defend Avila. First, where did you get the info that Avila signed less latin players than average? I don't think that is true. Also, where did you get the info that they made less waiver claims than average? Second, you place a lot of faith in what "someone reported". Avila's record in the later rounds of the draft is not abysmal, as you would imply, but rather averageish. Third, you missed the point, being in a rebuild, or not, is not decided by administrative competence, but rather by strategic circumstances.

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

If Chris Illitch it to be blamed for anything it's that he left AA in charge for waaayyyyy to long. It baffles me that owners of billion dollar teams leave the success/failure of the club to the GM, and don't have consultants or something verifying that the club is going in the right direction. At least the Lions have Speilman now. This board could see that the system wasn't improving developing young players years ago. I'm sure AA was telling Chris about all the great prospects he had that were about to break through and with a few free agents they would be contenders. 

When in actuality the system was top heavy and relied up most all of the prospects panning out, which never happens. And most of those prospects were in the riskiest demographic, pitching. 

I believe Al tried to rebuild, he just never built a competent development system.

I think that might go back to a time when Ilitch was considered a hockey-first guy and basically a baseball dilettante. That was before the last straw, when Avila humiliated the organization with his Peter-principled incompetence for the umpteenth time. I don't think Baby Doc actually wanted to finally step in and shake it all up—I think he felt he had to, because the industry noise surrounding Al Avila was simply too loud to ignore anymore.

I would bet that if Scott Harris can successfully begin an actual rebuild of this team, and achieve some visible successes along the way, Baby Doc will recede into the same background he occupied for almost \the entire Avila tenure. It's basically a case of, "Here are the keys, you're on your own, just don't crash the car in front of all the neighbors like the other guy did."

[HeyAbbott]

21 hours ago, sabretooth said:

"Average" does not = "Top 5"  I have been saying "at least average payroll" for the last 7 years.  Said it about 10 times just in the last 48 hours in this thread.

As of now, if Sportac is correct we have a 45 million dollar payroll after one subtracts that boat anchor  named Miggy. There is a league minimum of 720K this year. Multiplying 40 times 720 yields 28.8 million. 26 times 720k is 18.7 million. I am not sure whether the 40 man gets league minimum, I assume it does. The Tigers have a minimal payroll and even if one suspects a lingering COVID impact on the gambling and hospitality holdings of the Illitches, there would seem to be room to pick up some folks to make the team more entertaining.

[mtutiger]

I'd be curious to see the numbers, but on eye test, Avila definitely seemed less active on the waiver wire than others, particularly in 2022 when the hitting was so bad.

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Couple of things, not to be one to defend Avila. First, where did you get the info that Avila signed less latin players than average? I don't think that is true. Also, where did you get the info that they made less waiver claims than average? Second, you place a lot of faith in what "someone reported". Avila's record in the later rounds of the draft is not abysmal, as you would imply, but rather averageish. Third, you missed the point, being in a rebuild, or not, is not decided by administrative competence, but rather by strategic circumstances.

The Latin AFA information is freely available on Spotrac. The reports on Avila's draft "strategy" passes the smell test with flying colors.

As for whether what Avila and his regime did could be called a rebuild: that's fine, I will concede and agree to label it a "rebuild" to make people happy. But even so, that doesn't mean the front office tried very hard at it. To all appearances I'd say they more like hardly tried at it. They've built essentially nothing, and to the degree they get anything out of the five guys at the top of Al's future dream roster, four of them were the consensus obvious first-round picks everyone else would have made, so I don't give him much credit for just pushing the button; and the fifth guy had to go outside the system a couple winters ago to train himself at Driveline so he could adequately develop as a pitcher in the Tigers' system.

[RandyMarsh]

27 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

If Chris Illitch it to be blamed for anything it's that he left AA in charge for waaayyyyy to long. It baffles me that owners of billion dollar teams leave the success/failure of the club to the GM, and don't have consultants or something verifying that the club is going in the right direction. At least the Lions have Speilman now. This board could see that the system wasn't improving developing young players years ago. I'm sure AA was telling Chris about all the great prospects he had that were about to break through and with a few free agents they would be contenders. 

When in actuality the system was top heavy and relied up most all of the prospects panning out, which never happens. And most of those prospects were in the riskiest demographic, pitching. 

I believe Al tried to rebuild, he just never built a competent development system.

Not saying it was the right move but to defend Chris I could see how he may have been talked into keeping Avila despite all his problems. 

Prior to this season Avila could've convinced him that the "rebuild" didn't officially start till the 17/18 offseason and that he was hurt by the Covid year so in that sense he could tell him it has only been 3 seasons with the most season(2021) having them play over. 500 ball for the last 5 months. 

Between that and overrating the type of impact that guys like Riley and Tork could have I could understand if I was Chris maybe giving him 2022 as the one final year. When it inevitably failed he rightfully fired him. 

[Tiger337]

44 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It was a failed rebuild because the whole notion of a rebuild is antiquated.

I never liked that five-year plan thing that teams were selling to their fans.  Teams should be working to make improvements through all aspects of team building all the time.  It shouldn't be all or nothing.   Teams will have down years from time to time, but some of the improvements needed to get back up again should already be in progress.  There is no need to tear everything down and start at zero and then spend five years "re-building" while your team loses 100 games every year.       

[Longgone]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Latin AFA information is freely available on Spotrac. The reports on Avila's draft "strategy" passes the smell test with flying colors.

As for whether what Avila and his regime did could be called a rebuild: that's fine, I will concede and agree to label it a "rebuild" to make people happy. But even so, that doesn't mean the front office tried very hard at it. To all appearances I'd say they more like hardly tried at it. They've built essentially nothing, and to the degree they get anything out of the five guys at the top of Al's future dream roster, four of them were the consensus obvious first-round picks everyone else would have made, so I don't give him much credit for just pushing the button; and the fifth guy had to go outside the system a couple winters ago to train himself at Driveline so he could adequately develop as a pitcher in the Tigers' system.

The Spotrac info is "spotty" and in no way complete. 

Avila's draft record in the later rounds, by any objective measure, not including your smell test, is not at all bad.

Your assertion that Avila's administration didn't try very hard has no substance. Not very successful, sure, but baseless speculation on effort is petty.

[RatkoVarda]

2021 SFG - everything went right; total opposite of 2022 Tigers; lots of guys in their 30s had huge production

2022 SFG - same team minus Posey, Gausman and Bryant finished .500 after injuries and regression; - basically baseball

[Jim Cowan]

5 minutes ago, Longgone said:

The Spotrac info is "spotty" and in no way complete. 

Avila's draft record in the later rounds, by any objective measure, not including your smell test, is not at all bad.

Your assertion that Avila's administration didn't try very hard has no substance. Not very successful, sure, but baseless speculation on effort is petty.

I think that they gave it their best effort and put in as many hours as any other organization.  They just weren't any good at it.

[KL2]

54 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Cas was referring to the 3 straight 100 loss seasons, Bregman wasn't one of those picks.

Neither was Springer. 

But the bregman draft was after they lost 92 were trying to lose and fired their manager mid year. Just cause Texas out sucked them so they didn't lose 100 didn't mean they weren't tanking

[Stanley70]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

It was a failed rebuild because the whole notion of a rebuild is antiquated.

True. And this wasn't really a rebuild, it was a build. They basically had to start from scratch in most areas, creating departments that didn't exist. 

A franchise should never have a prolonged period of losing like the Tigers are going through.

 

[gehringer_2]

25 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think that they gave it their best effort and put in as many hours as any other organization.  They just weren't any good at it.

this.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

Cas was referring to the 3 straight 100 loss seasons, Bregman wasn't one of those picks.

Just remember to use the finger air quotes when you speak for me.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

2021 SFG - everything went right; total opposite of 2022 Tigers; lots of guys in their 30s had huge production

2022 SFG - same team minus Posey, Gausman and Bryant finished .500 after injuries and regression; - basically baseball

2022 added Carlos Rodon and Joc Pederson, so not the same team.

[chasfh]

20 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Chafin declined his option.

He had a really good year so little wonder he wanted to opt out. There is a possibility he comes back, although he’ll want something like 2/20 or better, and who knows how the new regime feels about that for relievers.

There’s also a chance he ends up with Cleveland.

[Tenacious D]

Yeah, Cleveland should pick him up.  He's still solid and cost-effective, as many failed starters are.

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Yeah, Cleveland should pick him up.  He's still solid and cost-effective, as many failed starters are.

Also, it's close to home for him.

[Tenacious D]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Also, it's close to home for him.

I always think this is interesting—how does this work during the season?  Players don’t get enough time off to travel home—is it so it’s more convenient for their family to visit them during homestands?

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Longgone said:

The Spotrac info is "spotty" and in no way complete. 

Avila's draft record in the later rounds, by any objective measure, not including your smell test, is not at all bad.

Your assertion that Avila's administration didn't try very hard has no substance. Not very successful, sure, but baseless speculation on effort is petty.

If you agree that Job #1 of a rebuilding regime is to pull out all the stops to acquire players to rebuild the system, then let's take a look at the data.

Using Spotrac as the source for International free agents, since Al Avila took over, the Tigers signed 37 total AFAs. The average team signed 49. The Tigers signed substantially fewer. I realize you've already said you don't trust Spotrac to be complete, so if you have a better, more complete source I can look at, I'd be obliged if you'd share that with me.

As for other transactions type, I hope you trust MLB Transactions Tracker, because that's what I am going to use for the rest.

Trades: Al Avila's Tigers made 47 trades since he took the job on August 4, 2015; the average team made 83 during that time.

Waiver claims: Avila's front office made 16 waiver claims; the average team made 28.

Free agent signings: Avila's team signed 32 free agents; the average team signed 36.

Minor league contracts: This is the one area in which the Tigers exceeded the average. Avila signed 151 minor league free agents. The average team signed 115.

Why did Avila focus so much on minor league free agents? Can't know for sure. Could it be partly because it's a relatively easy, frictionless transaction? No having to scout and take chances on a 16-year-old from a foreign land; no having to deal with another team negotiating against you; no having to beat other teams on a waiver claim; no having to negotiate a major league deal with an agent; and if it doesn't work out, you're on the hook for a mere two weeks minimum salary (if he is released during spring training or the season; before that there is zero termination pay). Given so much of this kind of high-touch, labor-intensive work is not associated with it, I assume it's not much more involved than looking up a list of MiFAs, sending a bunch of emails offering to sign them to a minor league contract, and executing the contracts of any of them who accept. Maybe @Edman85 or @microline133 could weigh in on this?

Even if it does take more work than that, the point is this: a team in rebuilding mode should be burning up the phones and scouring the wires looking for players from every source available, and such a team should be among those making the most deals in each transaction class. The Orioles were such a team. So were the Mariners. Those teams are now ready to compete. The Tigers have to practically start all over.

Maybe Al Avila did work hard at his job, but it was either at something other than pulling out all the stops to acquire players, or else his concept of working hard to acquire players fell short of what's required to do it successfully. One thing I am pretty certain of is that Al Avila worked to the best of his capabilities.

Edited November 3, 2022 by chasfh