2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Edman85]

You need to fill more minor league holes when you have zero depth on the farm or your player development apparatus is inept and high to mid round college picks can't make high A.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If you agree that Job #1 of a rebuilding regime is to pull out all the stops to acquire players to rebuild the system, then let's take a look at the data.

Using Spotrac as the source for International free agents, since Al Avila took over, the Tigers signed 37 total AFAs. The average team signed 49. The Tigers signed substantially fewer. I realize you've already said you don't trust Spotrac to be complete, so if you have a better, more complete source I can look at, I'd be obliged if you'd share that with me.

As for other transactions type, I hope you trust MLB Transactions Tracker, because that's what I am going to use for the rest.

Trades: Al Avila's Tigers made 47 trades since he took the job on August 4, 2015; the average team made 83 during that time.

Waiver claims: Avila's front office made 16 waiver claims; the average team made 28.

Free agent signings: Avila's team signed 32 free agents; the average team signed 36.

Minor league contracts: This is the one area in which the Tigers exceeded the average. Avila signed 151 minor league free agents. The average team signed 115.

Why did Avila focus so much on minor league free agents? Can't know for sure. Could it be partly because it's a relatively easy, frictionless transaction? No having to scout and take chances on a 16-year-old from a foreign land; no having to deal with another team negotiating against you; no having to beat other teams on a waiver claim; no having to negotiate a major league deal with an agent; and if it doesn't work out, you're on the hook for a mere two weeks minimum salary (if he is released during spring training or the season; before that there is zero termination pay). I assume it's not much more involved than looking up a list of MiFAs, sending a bunch of emails offering to sign them to a minor league contract, and executing the contracts of any of them who accept. Maybe @Edman85 or @microline133 could confirm as much?

Even if it does take more work than that, the point is this: a team in rebuilding mode should be burning up the phones and scouring the wires looking for players from every source available, and such a team should be among those making the most deals in each transaction class. The Orioles were such a team. So were the Mariners. Those teams are now ready to compete. The Tigers have to practically start all over.

Maybe Al Avila did work hard at his job, but it was either at something other than pulling out all the stops to acquire players, or else his concept of working hard at acquiring players fell short of what's required to do it successfully.

My personal theory on this is that he was always afraid of quitting on guys developed internally or that he acquired. Being active on the waiver wire requires taking risks with DFAs, which he was never keen on doing. (Also in keeping with how he handled the trade deadline toward the end of his tenure as well).

I remember arguing about this with some folks sometime before Kerry C's contract was purchased, but given the fact that the offense was historically bad this year, it was mind blowing how few transactions or waiver wire pickups they explored among position players. It always seemed like they were content on shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic despite the historically bad offensive output.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

You need to fill more minor league holes when you have zero depth on the farm or your player development apparatus is inept and high to mid round college picks can't make high A.

That makes sense.

Do you know the process of how MiFAs are signed, in relation to my hypothesis?

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

My personal theory on this is that he was always afraid of quitting on guys developed internally or that he acquired. Being active on the waiver wire requires taking risks with DFAs, which he was never keen on doing. (Also in keeping with how he handled the trade deadline toward the end of his tenure as well).

I remember arguing about this with some folks sometime before Kerry C's contract was purchased, but given the fact that the offense was historically bad this year, it was mind blowing how few transactions or waiver wire pickups they explored among position players. It always seemed like they were content on shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic despite the historically bad offensive output.

There may be something to the loss aversion idea, too. A lot of us have hypothesized how badly he wanted to front-burner minor leaguers picked up in trades for All-Stars to the majors so they could prove he was right the whole time.

Bad trait for a general manager in a major sport to have.

[Edman85]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That makes sense.

Do you know the process of how MiFAs are signed, in relation to my hypothesis?

I don't think the low-labor pull-up-a-list mass email is a fair characterization.

[Edman85]

I'm also not sure that statistic is accurate. MLB's transaction logs don't differentiate minor league free agents and major league free agents. The minor league free agent transactions in the official log tend to be undrafted free agents. The Tigers have had an extra international complex team for a while now. More spots to fill.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I'm also not sure that statistic is accurate. MLB's transaction logs don't differentiate minor league free agents and major league free agents. The minor league free agent transactions in the official log tend to be undrafted free agents. The Tigers have had an extra international complex team for a while now. More spots to fill.

MLBTR has separate transaction types in their database for "minor league signings" and "signings" which, I would assume by process of elimination, is major league signings. Let me know if you disagree.

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't think the low-labor pull-up-a-list mass email is a fair characterization.

Probably. How does it work?

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

My personal theory on this is that he was always afraid of quitting on guys developed internally or that he acquired.

it makes sense that there is a balance. If you don't give guys enough time you are occasionally going to move on from the next JD Martinez before he hits. If you give them too much time, there is an opportunity cost because that means you have a chance to look at far fewer guys. My take would be the Tigers were way too far over on the 'stick with the guy' side - and individual cases like Niko Goodrum and Buck Farmer are poster examples, as will be the Castros when they are gone......

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think that they gave it their best effort and put in as many hours as any other organization.  They just weren't any good at it.

Avila reminded me of a 70s or 80s GM.  He'd go into the off-season telling us what needed to be done and he'd get it done, just not very well.  I kind of liked that about him in a sentimental way, but it is too simplistic for today's game.  

[Edman85]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-surprisingly-complex-world-of-minor-league-contracts/

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

You need to fill more minor league holes when you have zero depth on the farm or your player development apparatus is inept and high to mid round college picks can't make high A.

Yeah, it does seem like every off season there have been lots of guys signed as roster filler for Toledo/Erie. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If you agree that Job #1 of a rebuilding regime is to pull out all the stops to acquire players to rebuild the system, then let's take a look at the data.

Using Spotrac as the source for International free agents, since Al Avila took over, the Tigers signed 37 total AFAs. The average team signed 49. The Tigers signed substantially fewer. I realize you've already said you don't trust Spotrac to be complete, so if you have a better, more complete source I can look at, I'd be obliged if you'd share that with me.

As for other transactions type, I hope you trust MLB Transactions Tracker, because that's what I am going to use for the rest.

Trades: Al Avila's Tigers made 47 trades since he took the job on August 4, 2015; the average team made 83 during that time.

Waiver claims: Avila's front office made 16 waiver claims; the average team made 28.

Free agent signings: Avila's team signed 32 free agents; the average team signed 36.

Minor league contracts: This is the one area in which the Tigers exceeded the average. Avila signed 151 minor league free agents. The average team signed 115.

Why did Avila focus so much on minor league free agents? Can't know for sure. Could it be partly because it's a relatively easy, frictionless transaction? No having to scout and take chances on a 16-year-old from a foreign land; no having to deal with another team negotiating against you; no having to beat other teams on a waiver claim; no having to negotiate a major league deal with an agent; and if it doesn't work out, you're on the hook for a mere two weeks minimum salary (if he is released during spring training or the season; before that there is zero termination pay). Given so much of this kind of high-touch, labor-intensive work is not associated with it, I assume it's not much more involved than looking up a list of MiFAs, sending a bunch of emails offering to sign them to a minor league contract, and executing the contracts of any of them who accept. Maybe @Edman85 or @microline133 could weigh in on this?

Even if it does take more work than that, the point is this: a team in rebuilding mode should be burning up the phones and scouring the wires looking for players from every source available, and such a team should be among those making the most deals in each transaction class. The Orioles were such a team. So were the Mariners. Those teams are now ready to compete. The Tigers have to practically start all over.

Maybe Al Avila did work hard at his job, but it was either at something other than pulling out all the stops to acquire players, or else his concept of working hard to acquire players fell short of what's required to do it successfully. One thing I am pretty certain of is that Al Avila worked to the best of his capabilities.

Tigers have signed over 45 international players the last four years alone, per Baseball America, it's more, but for some reason they don't include signings later in each year, like Clayton Campbell from New Zealand.

[mtutiger]

40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it makes sense that there is a balance. If you don't give guys enough time you are occasionally going to move on from the next JD Martinez before he hits. If you give them too much time, there is an opportunity cost because that means you have a chance to look at far fewer guys. My take would be the Tigers were way too far over on the 'stick with the guy' side - and individual cases like Niko Goodrum and Buck Farmer are poster examples, as will be the Castros when they are gone......

 

It was really apparent this year imo... even with the few waiver claims they did make it was apparent.  Brendon Davis is a good example, not that I expected much from him, but they basically waited until the final series of the year to bring him up, despite carrying Kody Clemens (and his .150 batting average) for half the season. 

I get that fans tend to fall in love with guys in AAA when things aren't going well and that those guys may be in AAA for a reason, but to me, it seems inexcusable not to churn the roster a bit more when they were as bad as they were in 2022. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

48 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Tigers have signed over 45 international players the last four years alone, per Baseball America, it's more, but for some reason they don't include signings later in each year, like Clayton Campbell from New Zealand.

That sounds pretty good. How do they rank versus other teams?

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-surprisingly-complex-world-of-minor-league-contracts/

Fascinating, thanks for posting.

It reads as though there is a difference between discussing a minor league deal with a veteran—a guy with six-plus years and wants a lot of details ironed out about whether they get an NRI, getting added to the 26-man or 40-man by a certain date, what happens if they don’t break camp, when they otherwise might get called up, how much they get paid if they’re optioned back, keeping other teams informed of their availability, whether they need Foreign Inquiry language in case NPB or KBO come knocking, etc—versus talking with a guy who is young organizational filler and doesn’t have any real options available to him, so he just has take the deal put in front of him or the team will just move on to the next guy on the list. In the first case it seems like the conversation might go on for a few hours, perhaps across a few days; in the latter, it looks like it takes the couple of minutes the team needs to email a standard contract to the young player and then wait on the yes or no.

[Tenacious D]

Here’s the 2023 opening day lineup I’d like to see:

LF Brandon Nimmo

CF Riley Greene

SS Carlos Correa

2B Javier Baez

RF Austin Meadows 

DH Miguel Cabrera

1B Spencer Torkelson 

3B Jonathan Schoop

C  Eric Haase/J. Rogers

I’d be OK subbing Candy for Schoop, but really don’t want both guys next year.

[Edman85]

52 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Here’s the 2023 opening day lineup I’d like to see:

LF Brandon Nimmo

CF Riley Greene

SS Carlos Correa

2B Javier Baez

RF Austin Meadows 

DH Miguel Cabrera

1B Spencer Torkelson 

3B Jonathan Schoop

C  Eric Haase/J. Rogers

I’d be OK subbing Candy for Schoop, but really don’t want both guys next year.

 

I hope Austin Meadows isn't in the opening day lineup, assuming the Rays start McClanahan.

[SoCalTiger]

6 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Here’s the 2023 opening day lineup I’d like to see:

LF Brandon Nimmo

CF Riley Greene

SS Carlos Correa

2B Javier Baez

RF Austin Meadows 

DH Miguel Cabrera

1B Spencer Torkelson 

3B Jonathan Schoop

C  Eric Haase/J. Rogers

I’d be OK subbing Candy for Schoop, but really don’t want both guys next year.

Signing Correa certainly fits the "we have to take risks to catch up" category that Harris spoke about. 

[IdahoBert]

On 11/3/2022 at 3:17 PM, chasfh said:

If you agree that Job #1 of a rebuilding regime is to pull out all the stops to acquire players to rebuild the system, then let's take a look at the data.

Using Spotrac as the source for International free agents, since Al Avila took over, the Tigers signed 37 total AFAs. The average team signed 49. The Tigers signed substantially fewer. I realize you've already said you don't trust Spotrac to be complete, so if you have a better, more complete source I can look at, I'd be obliged if you'd share that with me.

As for other transactions type, I hope you trust MLB Transactions Tracker, because that's what I am going to use for the rest.

Trades: Al Avila's Tigers made 47 trades since he took the job on August 4, 2015; the average team made 83 during that time.

Waiver claims: Avila's front office made 16 waiver claims; the average team made 28.

Free agent signings: Avila's team signed 32 free agents; the average team signed 36.

Minor league contracts: This is the one area in which the Tigers exceeded the average. Avila signed 151 minor league free agents. The average team signed 115.

Why did Avila focus so much on minor league free agents? Can't know for sure. Could it be partly because it's a relatively easy, frictionless transaction? No having to scout and take chances on a 16-year-old from a foreign land; no having to deal with another team negotiating against you; no having to beat other teams on a waiver claim; no having to negotiate a major league deal with an agent; and if it doesn't work out, you're on the hook for a mere two weeks minimum salary (if he is released during spring training or the season; before that there is zero termination pay). Given so much of this kind of high-touch, labor-intensive work is not associated with it, I assume it's not much more involved than looking up a list of MiFAs, sending a bunch of emails offering to sign them to a minor league contract, and executing the contracts of any of them who accept. Maybe @Edman85 or @microline133 could weigh in on this?

Even if it does take more work than that, the point is this: a team in rebuilding mode should be burning up the phones and scouring the wires looking for players from every source available, and such a team should be among those making the most deals in each transaction class. The Orioles were such a team. So were the Mariners. Those teams are now ready to compete. The Tigers have to practically start all over.

Maybe Al Avila did work hard at his job, but it was either at something other than pulling out all the stops to acquire players, or else his concept of working hard to acquire players fell short of what's required to do it successfully. One thing I am pretty certain of is that Al Avila worked to the best of his capabilities.

Thank you for putting this together. This is a very good overview of what was not done that other teams on average are doing. Imagine with the teams who are above that average are doing…

[chasfh]

I can’t imagine the kind of overpay it would take to get Carlos Correa to come here and lose for at least two more years.

[chasfh]

34 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

Thank you for putting this together. This is a very good overview of what was not done that other teams on average are doing. Imagine with the teams who are above that average are doing…

I’m glad you appreciate the overview.

Maybe some people believe that Al Avila worked super hard at his job but just wasn’t any good at it. But if Al wasn’t acquiring talent—the top job for any rebuilding team—at the rate of even the average team, then just what was it Al was working so super hard at?

Edited November 5, 2022 by chasfh

[IdahoBert]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I’m glad you appreciate the overview.

Maybe some people believe that Al Avila worked super hard at his job but just wasn’t any good at it. But if Al wasn’t acquiring talent—the top job for any rebuilding team—at the rate of even the average team, then just what was it Al was working so super hard at?

This really explains a lot though. Because he appeared at least to be doing a lot of the right things and occasionally when all the planets lined up you had a surprising season like 2021. Then, you see what the deficits really were when you have a season like 2022 and this explains really well at least one of the factors in how that deficit was expressed. I think Woody Allen said that 80% of success is in showing up and Al showed up a lot less often than everybody else.

[Jim Cowan]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I can’t imagine the kind of overpay it would take to get Carlos Correa to come here and lose for at least two more years.

He'll do it for $35 million, just like he did last year.  

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

He'll do it for $35 million, just like he did last year.  

I don't know how polished Correa is so this may not apply, and you can't generalize with much accuracy, but I think it is more true for Latin players who are transplanted to the US to play ball, that they see their careers in workman like terms and are less 'romantic' about their teams. They are less likely to get endorsement and media gigs in the US post career so going for money and security can rank higher for them than a slick anglo like say -  Verlander who probably figures after retirement he will make as much out of baseball as he has in.

Edited November 5, 2022 by gehringer_2