2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Toddwert]

10 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Harris appears to be accumulating lottery tickets—hopefully one or two will pay off.

more like scrathers even if you win you're only getting 50 bucks

[Shinzaki]

On 12/24/2022 at 8:20 PM, Toddwert said:

Come on We have a Ferris Wheel and Merry go round...... almost the same thing right?😉

Should have kept Al Al...then we could have touted our Mickey Mouse front office

[Edman85]

3 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Harris appears to be accumulating lottery tickets—hopefully one or two will pay off.

I hope this analogy doesn't apply. Lottery tickets are a net loser.

[casimir]

Castro will be 24 next season and has had some decent minor league success.  Nothing wrong with this move.

[casimir]

On 12/24/2022 at 11:57 AM, Tiger337 said:

The queston I have is whether it is any more predictive than just looking at stats like HR rate or OPS against?

I don’t know.  Shouldn’t you be writing a sequel soon?

[casimir]

8 hours ago, mtutiger said:

#2 is usually taken as evidence that Harris is sitting back and not doing anything.

He’s too busy counting Scrooge McIlitch’s shekels.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I don’t know.  Shouldn’t you be writing a sequel soon?

Might life got busier since my baseball analysis and writing days.  I haven't even been studying the new stats as closely as I used to.  Maybe a good retirement project!

[Edman85]

So... no waiver wire between Christmas and New Years, but next week, I anticipate some more churn.

• Tyler Nevin
• Lucas Luetge
• Oliver Ortega
• Taylor Widener
• Junior Fernandez

I could maybe see one or more of those guys being claimed. I'm not sure if this week counts against the week Logue and Feliciano have to be on the roster before being put back on waivers.

[buddha]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

tl;dr

were 26th!  projected 66 wins.

all that free agent money spent last year really paid off.  not sure why they didnt do it again...

[Toddwert]

so AL should have known that EROD was gonna flake out?

Edited December 27, 2022 by Toddwert

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

tl;dr

were 26th!  projected 66 wins.

all that free agent money spent last year really paid off.  not sure why they didnt do it again...

they  should pitch well enough to avoid losing 100. The rest is up in the air but there hasn't been much of anything new to be encouraged about.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

So... no waiver wire between Christmas and New Years, but next week, I anticipate some more churn.

• Tyler Nevin
• Lucas Luetge
• Oliver Ortega
• Taylor Widener
• Junior Fernandez

I could maybe see one or more of those guys being claimed. I'm not sure if this week counts against the week Logue and Feliciano have to be on the roster before being put back on waivers.

For a moment, I thought Luetga was the rapist from a few years back.  I had him confused with Josh Lueke.   

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Toddwert said:

so AL should have known that EROD was gonna flake out?

if erod is healthy how many games do they win?  70?

there are so many ways to respond to that question.  the most obvious being that al avila should not have been allowed to make those free agent decisions because he was bad at his job.  

but that's more of a theoretical complaint, back in reality land, this is merely an admonition that papering over the cracks in a bad team by throwing money at slightly above average or average 30 year olds is not the best way to win at baseball.  it never has been.  and those 30 year olds are often about to become bad players.

the tigers' problems are systemic in their player acquisition and development scheme, until they fix that, not even steve cohen would save them.

well....maybe cohen would...

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

For a moment, I thought Luetga was the rapist from a few years back.  I had him confused with Josh Lueke.   

Lueke was the first person to block me on Twitter. For a while, the only people to block me were rapey or rape apologisty (i.e. Jay Paterno)... Then all of Sakowski's friends got in on the act when I kept reminding them of his plagiarism.

[chasfh]

On 12/24/2022 at 7:45 AM, chasfh said:

Without doing any research on it, which I might try to do at some point, I’m guessing there are certain attributes on the Statcast cards that are somewhat predictive and others that are far less so.

Going out on a limb here, I don’t think xBA and xSLG are all that predictive, and hard hit % might not be much more predictive, because they are the result of batted ball which has a high degree of luck attended to it. But I’m guessing K% and BB% are probably more predictive because they reflect more a pitcher’s stuff, the ability to pound the zone and elicit swing and miss. Again, that’s just going out on a limb and making a guess educated by looking at a lot of this stuff, and not taking into account any concerted changes hitters and pitchers make to address weaknesses that could change a guy’s card year over year.

Finally got around to doing this, and the result is more surprising than I imagined it could be. Not because I guessed wrong correlations on the wrong attributes, but that correlations were stronger for those attributes I probably thought would be pretty weak.

I looked at the correlations of each of the 14 attributes on the Statcast cards of those pitchers who had values reported for both 2021 and 2022. As a reminder, Statcast card values are reported as a percentile versus the league—if you have the greatest strikeout percentage in the league, your percentile will be 100; if you have the worst, it will be 1; if you're dead balls average, you're a 50. Rinse and repeat thirteen more times.

Here are the results:

xwoba/xera	0.47
xba	0.57
xslg	0.52
xiso	0.49
xobp	0.42
brl_percent	0.38
exit_velocity	0.48
hard_hit_percent	0.37
k_percent	0.70
bb_percent	0.63
whiff_percent	0.73
fb_velocity	0.90
fb_spin	0.90
curve_spin	0.93

We could have guessed that the correlations are highest for attributes completely physically controlled by the pitcher: velocity and spin. We could also guess that outcomes more closely related to those physical attributes would also be pretty high: K%, BB%, Whiff %.

What I didn't expect to see were correlations so high for the attributes related to outcomes that are influenced by luck, which is basically everything else. Particularly xba and xiso, which you would think is a strong residue of BABIP. I didn't think the correlation would be zero or anything, but I imagined they would come out more in the 0.10 to 0.20 range than they would in the 0.37 to 0.57 range.

I guess I underestimated the effect that a pitcher's stuff would have on outcomes, specifically on overcoming oppositional force, and the luck of that force on as regular a basis as it does.

[RatkoVarda]

Lynn writes that Baez may or may not opt out of his $98M, but Tigers would not be upset if he did opt out, and Harris would never have signed a guy with his strike zone issues. Mentions one choice could be trade, and then is drinking the cool aid on internal options:

They have some kids in the hopper, for a change, with Cristian Santana, Peyton Graham, Danny Serretti, and others likely, in a year or so, to offer Harris and manager AJ Hinch more appealing options, at more affordable dollars, than Baez at the moment promises.

 

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Lynn writes that Baez may or may not opt out of his $98M, but Tigers would not be upset if he did opt out, and Harris would never have signed a guy with his strike zone issues. Mentions one choice could be trade, and then is drinking the cool aid on internal options:

They have some kids in the hopper, for a change, with Cristian Santana, Peyton Graham, Danny Serretti, and others likely, in a year or so, to offer Harris and manager AJ Hinch more appealing options, at more affordable dollars, than Baez at the moment promises.

 

Lol, those "kids in the hopper" aren't exactly on the cusp of the big leagues Lynn

[gehringer_2]

57 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We could have guessed that the correlations are highest for attributes completely physically controlled by the pitcher: velocity and spin. We could also guess that outcomes more closely related to those physical attributes would also be pretty high: K%, BB%, Whiff %.

What I didn't expect to see were correlations so high for the attributes related to outcomes that are influenced by luck, which is basically everything else. Particularly xba and xiso, which you would think is a strong residue of BABIP. I didn't think the correlation would be zero or anything, but I imagined they would come out more in the 0.10 to 0.20 range than they would in the 0.37 to 0.57 range.

I guess I underestimated the effect that a pitcher's stuff would have on outcomes, specifically on overcoming oppositional force, and the luck of that force on as regular a basis as it does.

IDK, corelation coef at ~.5 really ain't much.

Edited December 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

Good stuff

What about slider spin? I get FB and curveball spin, but slider spin would be interesting because my pet theory is that that is the one most destructive to a pitcher's arm - it would be intreresting to confirm if the risk was at least worth it! I remember it was Jobe's slider spin they were so raptured about.

Edited December 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

Let's hope that Baez puts up a season where his opting out becomes a viable option--I'd be OK with either outcome.

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK, corelation coef at ~.5 really ain't much.

Are these guys wrong?

https://www.socscistatistics.com/pvalues/pearsondistribution.aspx

[gehringer_2]

44 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Are these guys wrong?

https://www.socscistatistics.com/pvalues/pearsondistribution.aspx

I would say the issue here is that to simply have some detectable level of effect is not a very high bar (this is also the bugaboo about drug trials). You could have enough additional success for you statistics to still show some effect, but how much would it be worth in terms of making enough difference matter given all the other drivers in a given game? I tend to think that in general, those things which have high the highest correlation are likely to be causative and the lower correlated effects are likely simply secondary correlates of those primary drivers. I think this logic holds in particular when you can at least posit the direct action of factor (e.g. a faster faster fastball required a batter with faster reflexes), as compared to more diffuse or generalized outcome measurements,

Edited December 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

Another former Harris employee hits the streets.

Edited December 28, 2022 by mtutiger

[theroundsquare]

Hmm, LHH infielder 

[Edman85]

Similar to Moustakas. Don't claim him, but may as well bring him in on a minor league deal.